DV Journal

If the latest polls are any indication, Republicans Doug Mastriano and Dr. Mehmet Oz have their work cut out for them.

A USA Today/Suffolk poll released Wednesday showed they are trailing Democrats Josh Shapiro and John Fetterman in the race for Pennsylvania governor and U.S. Senator.

In the poll of 500 likely voters, Attorney General Shapiro led Mastriano, a state senator from Franklin County, 44 to 40 percent. Minor party candidates totaled 3 percent and 13 percent were undecided. The poll has a 4.4 margin of error.

Oz tallied at 37 percent and Fetterman, now serving as lieutenant governor, at 46 percent.  Minor party candidates came in at 16 percent and 13 percent were undecided.

And 26 percent of the voters thought the economy was the most important issue, followed by gun control. And just as in the rest of the country, President Joe Biden’s approval rating is underwater in Pennsylvania.

Some 38 percent approved Biden’s job performance while 54 percent disapproved.

In 2018, 48 percent of Pennsylvania voters were registered as Democrats and 40 percent were Republicans. Today, the Democratic Party registration advantage has been reduced to 45 percent-41 percent among active voters, said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center.

“Even with Democratic party registration dwindling in Pennsylvania, both Fetterman and Shapiro are adopting a more populist approach to midterm voters and winning independents,” Paleologos said. “Voters say they are unhappy with the economy in Pennsylvania and President Biden’s job approval, yet these particular Democrats are threading the needle thus far.”

Robin Kolodny, chair of the political science department at Temple University, thinks voters have a lot of information about the candidates already.

“What these polls show is that most Pennsylvanians are already familiar with the candidates and have formed opinions about them,” she said.  “The campaigns still have months to go to try to change voters’ minds, but these early polls underscore how competitive both races will be.”

However, Liz Preate Havey, who chairs the Montgomery County Republicans, believes the Republicans will prevail this year.

“I think people will vote their pocketbook,” said Havey. “There’s a lot of energy upset and anger against the Democrats in general and, according to polls, independents are dramatically breaking for Republicans two and three to one at this point.”

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A new and potentially influential force is emerging in Republican primaries across the country.

Democrats.

Days before Pennsylvania Republicans went to the polls to pick their nominee for governor, Democratic nominee Josh Shapiro—who was running unopposed—ran TV ads focused on far-right, underfunded GOP candidate state Sen. Doug Mastriano. They allegedly “attacked” the fringe candidate by reminding potential primary voters he is a Trump-friendly conservative who embraced the debunked theory that the 2020 presidential election was stolen.

Indeed, just before the primary, Trump endorsed Mastriano.

Politico reported, “Shapiro was so sure Mastriano would be the easiest Republican to beat that he aired an ad designed to elevate Mastriano in the primary.”

It worked. Mastriano won the Republican nomination and Shapiro is considered a likely shoo-in.

Now the tactic is being repeated in GOP primaries across the country.

In California two weeks later, the Democrats’ House Majority PAC ran an ad promoting GOP congressional candidate Chris Mathys, who the HuffPost calls “a right-wing challenger taking on Rep. David Valadao, a more moderate Republican running in California’s 22nd Congressional District.”

It doesn’t appear to have worked. While California is still counting votes, Valadao has a solid lead over Mathys for the second slot in the state’s jungle primary.

In Colorado, Democrats are spending more than $1 million on ads promoting another candidate in the mold of Mastriano, right-winger Ron Hanks, who also attended the January 6 rally that evolved into a riot at the U.S. Capitol. Hanks has raised less than $40,000 and has not aired a single TV ad of his own in the GOP U.S. Senate primary.

“In supposedly ‘blue’ Colorado, Democrats are reportedly dumping 7-figures into the Republican Senate primary to try and stir up drama,” the National Republican Senatorial Committee said in a release. “Just goes to show you how vulnerable Michael Bennet is in a state that Joe Biden won by more than 13 points.”

In Illinois, which truly is deep blue, the Democratic Governors Association has reportedly spent $15 million boosting the candidacy of a very conservative candidate, state Sen. Darren Bailey, over a more mainstream candidate, Richard Irvin. This is particularly significant in Illinois, which has a tradition of electing moderate Republicans. But according to the latest poll, Bailey has surged past Irvin, 32-17 percent.

And in South Carolina, Congressman Tom Rice (SC-7) was one of 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump in 2021. He faces a stiff challenge in the June 14 GOP primary from Trump-endorsed challenger state Rep. Russell Fry. A frequent  Democratic donor is urging Palmetto State Democrats to skip voting in their party’s contested primaries to cross over and vote for Rice next Tuesday. (South Carolina has open primaries and no party registration.)

With Biden hitting a new record low approval rating—dropping below 40 percent approval in the Real Clear Politics average—and inflation hitting a 40-year record of 8.6 percent in May, Democrats are in danger from facing any competent candidate. Why wouldn’t they spend money to keep the strongest candidates off the GOP’s November ballot?

“It’s a roundabout way of saying, ‘We think the most conservative candidate is the weakest candidate,'” Jessica Taylor with The Cook Political Report told NBC News. “These are the kinds of ads these far-right candidates would run if they had money.”

In Pennsylvania, Democrat Shapiro’s campaign denies it was trying to pick its preferred opponent.

“For weeks before the primary election both public and private polling indicated that Doug Mastriano was poised to become the Republican nominee, and those predictions were confirmed,” said campaign spokesman Will Simmons. “The contrast in this race could not be more clear—and that’s why our campaign was prepared to start the general election early and make sure Pennsylvanians know Mastriano’s real record.”

“Mastriano,” Simmons added, “is a dangerous extremist.”

If so, critics ask, then why would Shapiro run ads boosting his campaign?

“With the failed record and underwater ratings Democrats are carrying into the general election, it’s no surprise they’re grasping for straws. While Doug Mastriano had a decisive win and Republican enthusiasm is building toward November, shady Shapiro has been doomed from the start, said  Republican National Committee spokesperson Rachel Lee.

Mastriano did not respond to a request for a comment on this story, but he did seem pleased by Shapiro’s efforts at the time.

“I’m going to have to send him a thank you card,” Mastriano told Lancaster Online.

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After being in the ring for months with all the candidates, countless surrogates, and many election officials, I have come to some clear conclusions about what needs to be done on the Republican side in races for the U.S. Senate and governor in Pennsylvania.

The first thing that needs to be fixed is the process for counting votes in Pennsylvania races. We have become the laughingstock of the nation. Urgency is not the watchword of the people in charge of counting votes in most counties. I realize that Pennsylvania Act 77, which paved the way for the mail-in ballot nonsense, needs to be repealed. I know that Josh Shapiro, the Democratic Party nominee for governor, would veto any attempt to rid us of this current cumbersome and possibly corrupt system.

So, we must allow counties to count mail-in ballots a few days before Election Day. But we should also tighten the deadlines that they face to get all votes counted. For example, the current deadline of getting votes counted in the recount vote process of June 7 for the May 17 primary is offensive.

Each day that goes by without a resolution weakens confidence in the validity of our elections.

Second, I believe it is time for Dave McCormick to drop all the lawsuits he has filed arguing that mail-in votes received without a date written on the envelope by the voter should be counted. I have grown to respect and like McCormick during our nearly weekly interviews over the course of the campaign. But his lawsuits following a Commonwealth court’s ruling saying that mail-in ballots without a date should be counted are playing right into the hands of people like national Democratic lawyer Marc Elias who are trying to weaken any restrictions on the counting of mail-in ballots.

I understand McCormick fought a very hard race against Dr. Oz and spent probably $10 to $12 million of his own money, but the recount should be his last action in this election. I’d like to see him named chairman of the Pennsylvania GOP and I’d like to see him become the nominee for the upcoming Senate race against Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. I believe Casey has essentially coasted on the family name and is very beatable.

It is also clear to me that election integrity is a critical issue with Pennsylvania voters. However, I don’t think the Republican nominee for governor state Sen. Doug Mastriano, is approaching it in the right way. His rantings about voting machine conspiracies and his suggestion that as governor he could overturn election results in the 2024 presidential race are not a statewide winning strategy. I like that he is talking about the importance of the Secretary of State’s Office in running elections and I’d like to hear him flesh out the types of people that he would consider for the office.

I’d also like to see Mastriano engage with more media outlets rather than just that small number that seem to amplify some of his more radical views. He refuses to come on my show–and much of talk radio in the state–apparently because he can’t any kind of challenge even from conservative hosts.

His decision to hang up the phone during an interview with DelawareValleyJournal.com is a prime example of a strategy that will fail.

The bottom line is I think Dr. Oz is the presumptive Republican nominee for the Senate and I think he can beat John Fetterman. Doug Mastriano can beat Josh Shapiro, but he must make some big–but doable–changes.

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On the evening of the primary election, the Democratic nominee for governor Josh Shapiro said of his Republican opponent, Doug Mastriano: “Republicans just nominated a dangerous extremist who wants to take away our freedoms.”

The following day, in a text message to supporters, Shapiro said Mastriano was “anti-democracy.”

If those things are true, does it say something about Shapiro that his campaign purposely boosted Mastriano’s chances of becoming the GOP nominee? How dangerous must one be before the Shapiro campaign would flinch at elevating that person?

Charles C. Cooke at National Review makes the case.

“I do not want to hear a single thing from the Democratic Party about the ‘threat’ that Doug Mastriano presents to the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, or to the republic in general,” Cooke wrote. “I am, from this moment on, not remotely interested in that case. Why not? Because the Democratic Party clearly doesn’t believe a word of it. When one truly believes that a given candidate is a threat, one doesn’t ‘send out mailers boosting him,’ or spend $840,000 on television advertisements designed to improve his standing.”

The Shapiro campaign did not address the question in a straightforward manner when contacted for comment by Broad + Liberty.

“For weeks before the primary election, both public and private polling indicated that Doug Mastriano was poised to become the Republican nominee, and those predictions were confirmed last night,” said Will Simmons, spokesperson for the Shapiro campaign.

“The contrast in this race could not be more clear — and that’s why our campaign was prepared to start the general election early and make sure Pennsylvanians know Mastriano’s real record,” Simmons added. “Mastriano is a dangerous extremist who wants to criminalize and outlaw abortion with no exceptions for rape, incest, or when the life of the mother is at risk. He wants to restrict the right to vote and continues to spread conspiracy theories, and he would destroy the union way of life for hard working Pennsylvanians.”

About a week before the primary election, regional and national news outlets highlighted a television ad from the Shapiro campaign that — while running against Mastriano — seemed cleverly worded and positioned to boost Mastriano’s credentials with undecided Republicans.

“Josh Shapiro, the Democratic attorney general of Pennsylvania, is employing a familiar but risky tactic in that state’s governor’s race: He’s paying for a TV ad that appears intended to help one of his opponents in the Republican primary,” the New York Times reported on May 13.

The ad buy from Shaprio was even more important given that the Mastriano campaign had not run much of a television campaign because its budget was much smaller than others.

At least one progressive views it the way Cooke does.

“[T]he ethics are different this time around,” wrote columnist Will Bunch in the Inquirer.

“Mastriano isn’t just a bad candidate (cough, cough Tom Corbett), or even a historically bad one. He is a uniquely dangerous man who — if elected this year in a “wave election” where Republicans win all over the place — would have the legislative support to undo our basic rights and rip the fading fabric of our democracy in the very state where these ideas were forged in 1776 and 1787.”

This article first appeared in Broad and Liberty.

How does conservative firebrand and Republican gubernatorial nominee Doug Mastriano play in the Delaware Valley? Is his passionate America First nationalism a bridge too far for Delaware Valley residents?

There’s no dispute Matriano underperformed in the Philadelphia suburbs. While he won the state with nearly 44 percent of the vote — and 20 points ahead of his nearest competitor, former Congressman Lou Barletta — he got less than half that in Delaware County.

In Bucks County, Mastriano won 39 percent, in Chester 32 percent, in Montgomery County 36 percent and 33 percent in Philadelphia. Part of the reason is related to the fact that his competitors Bill McSwain and David White had strong connections to the area.

However, it’s also likely related to Mastriano’s far-right candidacy, including advocating a total ban on abortion without exceptions, campaigning on explicitly religious themes, and his wholehearted embrace of President Donald Trump’s unsubstantiated claims he won the 2020 presidential election. Not exactly the profile of Republicanism in the home of Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, one of the most bipartisan members of Congress.

However, though they might not have voted for him in the primary, most Republicans the Delaware Valley Journal spoke to now say they support Mastriano in his race against Democrat Attorney General Josh Shapiro.

“I like him,” said Philadelphia resident Elliott Tessler. “But I know he has certain foibles that might be deleterious to a possible election. I’m not put off by anybody being called a Trumper or Trump supporter. That doesn’t turn me off. And his big claim to fame is championing the challenge to the (2020) election. I’m not an election conspiracy guy, but I don’t think the Supreme Court decided correctly…How do you know what the numbers were until you did an investigation?”

Austin Hepburn, a Radnor resident active in politics, is enthusiastic about Mastriano’s chances to win in the fall.

“I go fly fishing upstate, toward the Poconos, out west toward Altoona,” said Hepburn. “And in my drives, I’m just overwhelmed by the number of Mastriano signs I see. I go upstate to hunt in the fall, and I see an awful lot of Trump signs. The Trump signs are still up. So the people upstate like Mastriano. And frankly, I can’t say I’ve ever seen an advertisement for him. I’ve never seen him speak…I was a little surprised that someone came and put Mastriano signs up at our polling place. Some of the people that came in told me they were voting for Mastriano. I was taken aback by that. I was a Dave White guy.”

Democrats, who already have a $6 million ad campaign targeting Mastriano on abortion, “are going to attack anybody,” said Hepburn. Some people asked him, “‘Don’t you think if Mastriano wins, they are going to drag him through the dirt, they are going to rip him apart with criticism?’

“And I said, ‘You know what, if the Republicans were to nominate Jesus Christ for governor, (Democrats) would still drag him through the mud and crucify him.’ So I don’t think that Mastriano is going to get any different treatment than any other Republican…The Democrats will go after anybody. It doesn’t matter. They’ll find some fault, whoever the candidate is, and try to wreck him.”

And as for Mastriano’s participation in the January 6th “Stop the Steal” protests that spun off into the Capitol Hill riot, Hepburn said he doesn’t believe that will be a problem.

“A lot of people have doubts about the election, and they want answers. It will be positive to get the base out. The Republicans can’t alienate their base like they do so often. It helps to have the base.”

But John Featherman, a Philadelphia Republican, believes the opposite is true.

“I am not a fan of him or his ideology,” Featherman said of Mastriano. “He will lose to Shapiro by 15 to 20 points. Many Republicans like me support a woman’s right to choose, as well as LGBT rights. We also don’t support ‘the big lie’ that Trump won the presidential election. Many of us will cross party lines and vote for Shapiro.”

Featherman, who ran for the U.S. Senate twice and for Philadelphia mayor in 2011 added, “Mastriano will also hurt the eventual Republican nominee from the U.S. Senate race–unless that person distances himself from Mastriano.”

Yet other area Republicans are ready to back the former Army colonel and state senator.

Myron Goldman, chair of the Cheltenham Township GOP, said, “I am glad to support a candidate who openly and enthusiastically supports conservative positions.”

Warminster resident Maryann Brown supports Mastriano, noting former Trump backs him. She said she hopes if Mastriano is elected, “gas prices go down and also food prices.”

“I have a part-time job in Center City Philly, and there are lots of homeless people. I work also in Levittown and northeast Philly, and the homeless are just asking for money, too,” said Brown.

Rich Booker, a former Radnor commissioner agrees that Trump’s endorsement helped Mastriano and that his attendance at the Jan. 6 rally before the Capitol riot had no affect on the primary voters.

“Trump’s endorsements seem to be based on his evaluation of who is most likely to win in the general election – after all, that is the most important consideration for Republicans,” said Booker.  “Trump’s support of Mr. Mastriano confirms that in his view, he has the best statewide ‘name recognition.’ and is the best primary candidate to reform election procedures to eliminate COVID-related and other changes that are susceptible to fraud or abuse within the Commonwealth  The Pennsylvania Republican primary electorate obviously agrees.”

And the Republican National Committee (RNC) says it is willing to do its part, too — though without mentioning Mastriano by name.

“The Republican National Committee has been on the ground in Pennsylvania since 2016, making a monumental investment this cycle as we work to elect Republicans up-and-down the ballot,” said Rachel Lee, a spokeswoman for the RNC. “Josh Shapiro would be a disaster for Pennsylvania families and workers, who will soundly reject him at the ballot box this November.”

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The governor’s race also had a bombshell drop as the finish line comes into view. On Saturday, Trump endorsed state Sen. Doug Mastriano.

In the Emerson poll, Mastriano surged to first place with 34 percent, which Barletta trailed with 22 percent. However, 15 percent were undecided and those voters were asked how they were leaning. A majority, 54 percent of undecided broke toward Mastriano, which would give Mastriano 42 percent, while Barletta was at 24 percent. Since the April Emerson poll, Mastriano gained 20 points, while Barletta lost three points.

Lou Barletta (right) talks with Jerry Stelweck at the Penrose Diner

Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling said, “Among those who have already voted, Mastriano has 13 percent, but his support rises to 37 percent of those who plan to vote on Election Day. His opponent, Barletta, is getting about an equal share with 25 percent of the early vote and 21 percent of the Election Day voters.”

On the Democratic side, AG Josh Shapiro is running for governor running unchallenged.

Meanwhile, Barletta campaigned at the Penrose Diner in South Philadelphia on Monday. He spoke to patrons and talked to the press and argued that he is the best candidate to beat Shapiro in the fall.

When Barletta announced that he was running a year ago he predicted the race would be between him and Mastriano.

“And here we are the day before the election and that’s who it’s come down to,” he said. The Emerson poll “shows it’s still a two-person race, myself and Doug Mastriano. There’s a lot of undecideds. And there’s also the fact that when people go to the polls they’re going to realize, they may have supported one of the other many candidates, that their only chance to beat Josh Shapiro will be myself. So even though they may have polled for someone else along the line, when they get to vote, they’ve got to make that decision. Does their vote count if they vote for someone else?”

“I think I have a very good chance,” he said.

Asked about President Trump’s endorsement of Mastriano, Barletta said, “I think he made a mistake. But I’ll take his endorsement on Wednesday.” Barletta, when he was in Congress, was an early Trump supporter.

“My plea to the people of Pennsylvania is I give us the best chance to beat Josh Shapiro. Winning a primary is not good enough if we have somebody Josh Shapiro can beat. I have a record. I’ve been a mayor of a Democrat city and a congressman. I think I give us the best chance.”

Mastriano called Barletta’s remarks “RINO (Republican in Name Only) nonsense and establishment double-speak.”

“The fact is, he can’t and won’t win the primary and therefore has zero chance of winning the general election.  The people will decide and will give us a huge mandate,” said Mastriano.  Mastriano served in the Army for 30 years, prior to becoming a state senator for Franklin County.

Berwood Yost, director of the Franklin & Marshall poll, said that Mastriano “is leading this race based on widespread grassroots support.”

“I think the hope among more mainstream candidates that they can consolidate support behind a single candidate other than Mastriano comes too late in this race to make much of a difference,” said Yost.  “Remember, the state reported that nearly a half-million primary ballots had been returned as of last Wednesday, so those votes have been cast.

“And even if some candidates have left the race, their names will still appear on the ballot. Barletta may benefit from the undecided voters breaking his way, but recent polls suggest he might be trailing Mastriano and McSwain.  I think there are simply too many candidates in the race for them to overtake Mastriano, especially after receiving former President Trump’s endorsement.”

“We need to remember that polling in primaries is notoriously difficult for many reasons, so lots of things could happen tomorrow.  Still, Mastriano seems best positioned right now to win,” said Yost.

Meanwhile, two other candidates, Sen. Jake Corman and former Congresswoman Melissa Hart, dropped out and threw their support to Barletta.  And the prestigious Commonwealth Partners Chamber of Entrepreneurs changed its endorsement from Bill McSwain to Barletta. Commonwealth CEO Matt Brouillette called for McSwain and Dave White to withdraw from the race and support Barletta.

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Just four days before the primary, President Donald Trump announced his pick for Pennsylvania governor: Sen. Doug Mastriano.

Mastriano (R-Franklin) is already ahead by 10 points in the latest Trafalgar Group poll from last Monday.

“There is no one in Pennsylvania who has done more, or fought harder, for Election Integrity than State Senator Doug Mastriano,” Trump wrote. “He has revealed the Deceit, Corruption, and outright Theft of the 2020 Presidential Election, and will do something about it.”

“I’m honored to receive the endorsement from President Trump, today,” Mastriano said. “But the honor is not for me. It’s for the millions of hard-working Pennsylvanians who want their individual liberties restored, power returned to the people, and for their elected leaders to fulfill the America First — and Pennsylvania First — agenda.

“Our grassroots supporters across Pennsylvania know that Donald Trump and I will always have their backs. We are all committed to ending the era of party bosses, dark money interest groups, and flawed elections. It’s time for Pennsylvanians to unite, with the support of President Trump, and focus on defeating Josh Shapiro so we can revive our economy, achieve energy independence, lower taxes, restore law and order, and reform our failing education system,” Mastriano said.

Mastriano, 58, a conservative firebrand who served for 30 years in the Army and retired as a colonel, also holds a doctorate history and four master’s degrees.

In recent days, the Republican Party establishment has put out the call to unite around former Congressman Lou Barletta, who is also running for governor.  State Sen. Jake Corman dropped out of the race and endorsed Barletta on Thursday, as did former Gov. Mark Schweiker and former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum.

Barletta issued this statement after Trump endorsed Mastriano:  “Throughout this campaign I have proved that I’m the best Republican to unite the Republican Party and defeat Josh Shapiro, and I will continue unifying our grassroots conservatives towards our shared goal. I will continue making the case to the people that I am the only candidate who can unite the party and bring victory in November. I look forward to having President Trump’s endorsement Wednesday morning.”

In the same vein, a spokeswoman for GOP gubernatorial candidate Bill McSwain, said, “Bill McSwain is a conservative outsider and U.S. Marine with a lifelong history of public service. He is the only candidate who can beat Josh Shapiro, and the clear choice for voters who want to see a Republican victory in November.”

McSwain, a former U.S. Attorney, received a stinging un-endorsement from Trump a few weeks ago over his lack of investigation into irregularities that Trump believes cost him the 2020 election. McSwain blamed his boss, U.S. Attorney Bill Barr. However, in his capacity as a state senator, Mastriano has called for a Pennsylvania audit and traveled to Arizona to observe what officials did there.

Party regulars fear that Mastriano will not be able to win in the fall against Democrat Josh Shapiro, and indeed, the Shapiro campaign has been running commercials touting Mastriano.

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With just a week to go before the May 17 primary, state Sen. Doug Mastriano is far ahead of the others in the GOP race for governor.

A Trafalgar Group poll put the Franklin County, Pa. Republican at 27.6 percent, followed by former Congressman Lou Barletta at 17.6 percent. Delaware County businessman Dave White was in third at 15 percent, and former U.S. Attorney Bill McSwain was fourth at 14.4 percent. The other candidates were in the single digits while 11.3 percent remain undecided.

The poll of 1,080 Republican voters had a 2.99 percent margin of error. It was conducted May 6-8. The Trafalgar Group is rated by the data analysts at FiveThirtyEight as one of the most accurate polling firms in the country.

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Attorney General Josh Shapiro is running unopposed.

GOP consultant Charlie O’Neill said, “The only poll that matters is on Election Day. With a very large field, this race is still anyone’s game. I also have noticed that enthusiasm on the ground doesn’t always seem to match these polls. Candidates like Charlie Gerow are attracting lots of attention and attendees at campaign events–much higher than this poll would indicate.”

Before Mastriano became a state senator, he served 30 years in the Army and retired as a colonel.

“The recent Trafalgar poll has our campaign with a double-digit lead over all the other candidates is evidence that the people do not want to settle,” Mastriano said. “The people want a fighter. Someone who stood with them through the dark times of the shutdown. It’s a clear choice between proven leadership or more of the same. We will win next week, and we will win on November 8 to restore freedom.”

But the Barletta campaign said not to write them off yet.

“Lou Barletta has run the biggest and best grassroots campaign in Pennsylvania history and the data that we see shows that Lou is the best candidate to beat Josh Shapiro,” said Barletta advisor Tim Murtaugh. “Shapiro is running TV ads trying to boost the Republican he knows he can beat [Mastriano] and we must not let a Democrat interfere to choose a candidate we know will lose in November.”

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