DV Journal

A new Franklin & Marshall College poll of Pennsylvania voters found 46 percent support Vice President Kamala Harris and 43 percent support former President Donald Trump in the race for the White House. Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. received six percent support while Libertarian Chase Oliver and progressive Jill Stein each received one percent.

The results reflect how tight the presidential race is in the Keystone State.

“The size of a Beaver Stadium football crowd is going to determine the outcome of this election,” quipped Mercury Senior Vice President Vince Galko, a longtime state GOP strategist.

Harris’s margin in the Franklin & Marshall poll is similar to the leads she held in the Quinnipiac and New York Times/Siena polls released this week.

“The greatest change in the presidential race comes from the consolidation of support for Harris among the Democratic factions,” said Berwood Yost, director of the Center for Opinion Research and the Floyd Institute for Public Policy at Franklin & Marshall College.

About half of the 920 registered voters felt Pennsylvania was “on the wrong track.” Residents tagged the economy, specifically unemployment and gas and utility prices, as the most important issue in the state at 31 percent.

Seventeen percent of voters who support Harris said it was because she wasn’t Trump. Another 17 percent cited women’s rights while 15 percent praised her character.

Almost 30 percent of voters who support Trump cited the economy. Another 20 percent said the issue was immigration.

Galko thinks Harris will experience a reality check once next week’s Democrat convention is over.

“The more America sees the Democratic Party of 2024, the more they’re gonna realize, ‘This is not my cup of tea,’” he said.

That won’t stop the Harris and Trump campaigns from spending millions on campaign ads in Pennsylvania. They’re expected to pay a combined $211 million on TV, digital, and radio ads in the state this election cycle. About $42 million has been spent since Harris replaced President Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket. That’s the most of any state in the U.S.

In the high-stakes U.S. Senate race between Democrat incumbent Bob Casey Jr. and Republican challenger Dave McCormick, Casey leads McCormick 48 percent to 36 percent. Another 15 percent said they weren’t sure. Of that bloc, 20 percent were considering McCormick to Casey’s 12 percent.

Galko suspects the undecided are mostly made up of Republican suburban voters who left the party due to dissatisfaction with previous statewide candidates. He thinks McCormick has the resume to bring them back into the fold, so long as he focuses on issues that matter to the state.

“He obviously knows Pennsylvania, he’s invested in Pennsylvania, [and] he has deep roots in Pennsylvania,” said Galko.

At the same time, Galko suggested McCormick turn his campaign from a statewide campaign into more regional one with ads tailored to different Pennsylvania markets. Galko said that was how Republicans like Pat Toomey and Arlen Specter succeeded in winning their U.S. Senate races.

The F&M poll results appear to agree with McCormick’s message resonating with certain sections of Pennsylvania. He led Casey 46 to 39 percent in Northeast Pennsylvania, 47 to 40 percent in Central Pennsylvania, and 50 to 29 percent in Northwest Pennsylvania. Casey’s support coalesced around Philadelphia and the Delaware Valley where he leads McCormick 60 to 20 percent. He also led McCormick 51 to 34 percent in Pittsburgh and the surrounding areas.

On the generic congressional ballot, Democrats led Republicans 44 to 42 percent. Thirteen percent were undecided.

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Before President Joe Biden dropped out and made her the party’s presidential nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris opposed fracking and supported the Green New Deal. Now her campaign claims she will allow fracking to continue if she becomes president.

They also say she no longer supports a national socialized medicine plan (“Medicare For All”), and she’s flipped on whether illegal immigration should be illegal (she now says yes.)

During a press availability on Tuesday, DVJournal asked Republican Senate candidate Dave McCormick if Pennsylvania’s swing state voters should trust Harris on important issues like fracking now that she’s changed her mind and now claims to favor it.

“I don’t think so,” said McCormick.

The Republican candidate referenced one of his own campaign ads about Harris’s record, which has garnered more than 4 million views.

“The ad has Sen. Casey saying ‘she’s ready to be president. You’re going to love her when you get to know her.’ And it had a minute of her in her own words…She says, ‘I want to ban fracking. And I want to want to transition energy workers. I want to legalize illegal immigration. I want to be sure illegal immigrants get federal benefits.’ She said, ‘I want to have mandatory buybacks of guns. I want to eliminate private healthcare insurance.’ All in her own words. You can see the ad. And she said she wanted the government to get involved in reducing meat consumption. Red meat.”

“So listen, the Pennsylvania I grew up in and know well, that agenda isn’t resonating,” added McCormick.

“And on the fracking, she has said time and time again she embraced the green agenda, which meant huge, heavy subsidization of solar and wind at the expense of fossil fuels and the EPA mandate that happened when she was vice president, that 80 percent of all light vehicles will be electric vehicles by 2032. Even Elon Musk doesn’t support that.”

McCormick noted his Democratic opponent, incumbent Sen. Bob Casey Jr., voted with the Biden-Harris administration 98 percent of the time.

“So Pennsylvania has 600,000 people that are in the energy industry or have jobs that are derived from there. No, I don’t think they should trust that she or Sen. Casey are going to be strong advocates of unlocking our potential natural gas reserves, in particular in Pennsylvania.

“And the reason I think that’s such a big issue is it’s critical to our national security, it’s critical to Pennsylvania’s economic wellbeing,” McCormick said. “And it’s great for the environment. I’m an environmentalist. I believe in climate change. The way to reduce carbon emissions is to export our natural gas, where replaces coal-fired plants in India and China. None of those things are going to happen under Harris-Casey. The reason you should know that is they’ve proven it.”

Another reporter asked Harris’s sudden support for a policy promoted by her opponent, Donald Trump: eliminating the tax on tip income. McCormick said he favors it but hasn’t studied it closely. And, he added, Harris’s willingness to seize on a Trump policy she had never mentioned before is yet another sign she’s simply saying whatever it takes to get elected.

“I think it was interesting that Kamala Harris embraced that,” said McCormick. “If you’re going to embrace something, you should say, ‘It’s a good idea that President Trump had.’ That you would simply just grab that idea and then not acknowledge where it came from when she was part of an administration that was expressly saying they wanted to enforce through 80,000 new IRS agents the fact that people in the service industry should be taxed on tips.

“That turnaround is exactly like the fracking,” McCormick added. “You don’t get to say, ‘I’m for a new thing’ without explaining how your position’s changed, why it’s changed and why the voters should trust you. I don’t think the voters should trust her on banning fracking, and I don’t think they should trust her on that.”

Asked about President Joe Biden’s ideas to impose term limits and congressional oversight on the U.S. Supreme Court, McCormick said, “I’m by and large opposed to those proposals.  The reason is we have a situation here where I think expressly President Biden and Vice President Harris were embracing an agenda that would pack the Supreme Court.”

And that’s because they “don’t like [its] composition,” he said.

A former CEO of Bridgewater Associates, one of the world’s largest hedge funds, he also pushed back on attack ads Casey is running saying McCormick invested in a Chinese company that manufactured fentanyl. It turned out that Casey also had shares in that company through a mutual fund.

“Sen. Casey lied about it,” McCormick said. “Most Americans who own 401(k)s own some exposure to global stocks. And those global stocks are represented in countries around the world, usually China because China is such a big part of the economy. That’s essentially what Bridgewater did. It had an index that included global stocks. So, Bob Casey and Bridgewater — not Dave McCormick — Bridgewater owned part of a pharmaceutical company that sold to China a legal painkiller, which is fentanyl.

“It was an accusation which was an absolute lie. It’s not illegal fentanyl. And then Bob Casey, the ultimate liar and hypocrite, we discovered owns the same thing in his personal portfolio.”

“This guy’s lying, and he’s a hypocrite because he doesn’t have a record to run on,” said McCormick.

The Casey campaign did not respond to a request for comment.

GOP U.S. Senate candidate Dave McCormick is campaigning hard on the fact that his opponent, U.S. Sen. Bob Casey, supports another term for President Joe Biden.

While Casey’s position isn’t popular — a huge majority of Keystone State voters believe Biden is too old — it appeared the three-term Democrat might get a reprieve. Prominent Democrats like former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi have been working behind the scenes to push Biden out, which would let Casey off the hook.

A chorus of  Democrats and donors have called for Biden to bow out of the presidential race, fearing a Trump victory. Vermont Sen. Peter Welch was the first senator to ask Biden to withdraw for the “good of the country.” At least 20 House Democrats have called for Biden to drop out of the 2024 race.

That all changed Saturday when an assassin’s bullet narrowly missed former President Donald Trump. The Republican nominee survived, but it appears any hopes of getting Biden off the ticket didn’t.

“Everything is on pause for the moment given the gravity of the moment in time we’re in,” said Jeff Jubelirer, vice president with Bellevue Communications. “I haven’t heard any new Democrats saying anything about Biden since Saturday. It seems like this will remain on pause for at least the short term. However, I don’t know if this will change the overall calculus that many Democrats want Biden to drop out for a new candidate. I suspect the grave attack won’t change their positions.”

Jubelirer is right regarding the political math. A New York Times/Siena College poll released Monday found Biden losing Pennsylvania to Trump 48 to 45 percent. Worse, campaign professionals say, is the fact that around 60 percent of Keystone State Democrats say Biden it too old. And Democrats are split on keeping Biden on the ticket, with 48 percent sticking with Biden and 46 percent wanting him gone.

But Democrats like Casey and his colleague, Sen. John Fetterman, are backing Biden. “I refuse to join the Democratic vultures on Biden’s shoulder after the debate. No one knows more than me that a rough debate is not the sum total of the person and their record,” Fetterman said.

And it appears the national party is falling in line, too. Former Democratic National Committee chair Donna Brazile told The New York Times that after Biden’s debate fiasco, “it’s been hysteria on steroids. But now Biden’s not going anywhere.

“If he is not going to buckle under the weight of what has happened over the last two and a half weeks, I don’t know why anyone else should,” she said.

Republicans are delighted. They see Biden as a weak candidate, and Casey’s embrace of a candidate most voters believe is clearly unfit to serve.

McCormick has billboards around Pennsylvania that say “Same Old, Tired Ideas” with pictures of Casey and Biden. They went up last week in Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Scranton, and Bloomsburg. Casey and Biden are both from Scranton, while McCormick grew up in Bloomsburg.

McCormick’s campaign launched a digital ad after the June 27 debate titled “Bob Casey Knew,” a reference to the fact that, due to his relationship with Biden and the White House, Casey had to be aware of Biden’s declining cognitive skills.

“There’s nobody in the Senate closer to Joe Biden than Bob Casey,” McCormick told DVJournal. “As a veteran, I’m worried about Biden’s ability to keep our troops safe. How can Casey, one of Biden’s closest friends in Washington, continue to ignore what’s at risk with a weak commander-in-chief? The commonwealth deserves better than their failed leadership and tired, old ideas.”

Why won’t Casey, caught in a tough re-election campaign in a state Biden is losing, cut the president loose?

“The relationship that Sen. Casey and the president enjoy transcends politics,” says longtime Democratic strategist TJ Rooney. “The president has enjoyed exceptionally close relationships with both Sen. Casey and Gov. Casey [Sen. Casey’s father]. Bob Casey is a faithful servant who believes his word is his bond. I don’t see his support for President Biden changing anytime soon.”

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You can’t watch TV without seeing a commercial from Sen. Bob Casey Jr. blaming inflation on corporations with “Greedflation” and “Shrinkflation” as the catchwords.

However, a new report is debunking Democrats Casey and President Joe Biden, who also uses the terms. According to the report from Americans for Prosperity, Casey has “cherrypicked” the data and does not account for corporate expenses before calculating profits.

The report, “The Bidenflation Blame Game: How Big-Spending Politicians Scapegoat Business,” by Kurt Couchman, AFP senior fellow in fiscal policy, andAFP Economic Policy Analyst Ilana Blumsack, lays the blame for inflation squarely on government spending rather than lawmakers’ businesses for higher prices or downsizing products.

Couchman told DVJournal “Congress and the White House need to get the spending and the debt under control. That is the urgent requirement for getting inflation and interest rates back under control. We need Congress to get serious about fixing the budgeting.”

Congress spent a lot and borrowed a lot during the pandemic and immediately afterward.

“And, of course, there had been rising deficits before that, but the pandemic spending splurge, all borrowed money, really drove up the debt,” said Couchman. “The Federal Reserve had to buy a lot of that debt. And then, it was the American Rescue Plan Act, $1.9 trillion of new borrowed spending, when the Democrats took control of everything that was the metaphorical straw that broke the camel’s back. That’s when we saw inflation immediately in March 2021, when they passed that thing, and then they kept building on it. They kept spending more and more money that we didn’t have. So that added to the inflationary fire.”

“The Biden administration approved $6 trillion in new debt,” he said.  In addition to the American Rescue Plan, there were the Inflation Reduction Act and the Chips Act.

“And it only cooled off when Republicans gained enough seats to win control of the House of Representatives,” Couchman added.

As for Casey and Biden’s contention that the blame for inflation lies with greedy corporations, Couchman said that is not true.

His report shows corporate profits have remained relatively stable.

“Sen. Casey from Pennsylvania had claimed corporate profits were driving inflation over the last couple of years,” said Couchman. Casey’s November 2023 inflation report “just didn’t pass the smell test,” he said. “I looked at his methodology, and he used some funny timing. He looked at the second quarter of 2020, which was when the economy was pretty much locked down. And then compared it to two years after when we had basically recovered. And it turned out that he used a measure that wasn’t actually corporate profits because it excluded a bunch of really significant expenses, and profits are revenues minus costs.”

When you factor that in, “you see that corporate profits have only grown along with the broader economy,” said Couchman.

Casey did not respond to a request for comment.

Nate Sizemore, a spokesman for Casey’s Republican opponent, Dave McCormick, said, “Bob Casey is grasping at straws to distract voters from the truth. He rubber-stamped trillions in wasteful federal spending, fueling the war on energy, and creating the sky-high inflation crushing Pennsylvania families. Come November 5, voters across the commonwealth will hold Casey accountable for his disastrous economic record.”

AFP Regional Director Ashley Klingensmith said, “Real leaders own up to their failures when they’re wrong. What we’re seeing from members of Congress—including my senator, Bob Casey—is an immature and deceptive excuse to cover up a lousy voting record. Sen. Casey and many other lawmakers have voted in lockstep with President Biden but aren’t willing to own the consequences, apologize, or change course. But we at AFP-PA will ensure that Pennsylvanians know his voting record and encourage them to call his office and tell him to stop voting for an agenda that’s actively hurting the Keystone State.”

Couchman said there are major ramifications since the country’s debt is now nearly 100 percent of the gross domestic production (GDP).

“It’s estimated by the International Monetary Fund and others that somewhere between 70 and 80 percent of GDP is when debt drag starts to happen,” he said. “We’re at about 100 percent of GDP.” This could slow economic growth because “the government debt is crowding out the private sector.”  And people are starting to worry about whether the federal government can pay its “timely interest in principle on the debt,” causing uncertainty.

The housing market is already affected by higher interest rates on mortgages, credit cards, and car loans.

All this came from “too much spending, which came from bad decisions by Congress and the president,” he said.

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Calls of “We love you, President Biden,” filled Mount Airy Church of God in Christ in Philadelphia as the president made a campaign swing to Pennsylvania on Sunday.

Some Democrats called for Biden to bow out of the race in the wake of a disastrous performance in the debate against former President Donald Trump last month. However, on July 7, Biden visited a Black church in Philadelphia hoping to showcase his continued strength among African American voters.

Biden, who lived in Scranton before moving to Delaware when he was 10, considers Pennsylvania his second home and has come to Philadelphia often, including eight visits this year.

Biden was supposed to speak at the National Education Association annual conference in Philadelphia on Sunday. But Biden’s campaign cancelled that event after the NEA’s own unionized employees filed unfair labor practices complaints over how the teachers union treats its own employees. Biden would have had to cross a picket line, so the campaign sent him to a friendlier forum.

The 538 poll average on July 7 showed Trump leads Biden by 3.2 points in Pennsylvania despite all those visits.

Biden thanked the pastor, Bishop J. Louis Felton, and the congregation for welcoming him.

“It’s good to be home,” said Biden. “I got my start as a public defender in the civil rights movement.”

“Our purpose is to serve others,” Biden said. “That’s our purpose. To know everyone is entitled to be treated with dignity and respect, to know faith without works is dead. We’re all called to be doers of the world.”

“In this nation, that means keeping our eyes on the north star, the very idea of America,” Biden said. “We’re all created equal in the image of God. And deserve to be created with dignity and respect our entire lives. We’ve never fully lived up to that. But we’ve never fully walked away from it either. That’s because of you and generations before you who led the church from slavery to freedom.”

Biden mentioned his accomplishments in dealing with the pandemic, having the lowest Black unemployment, and his plans to “make housing affordable.”

Along with ensuring “you can follow your dreams without the burden of student debt.”

“To keep our communities safe by getting weapons of war off our streets,” he said. “To give hate no safe harbor.  While there are those who want to erase history, Kamala and I want to make it. Black history is American history.”

“I’ve been doing this a long time, honest to God I’m never more optimistic about America’s future if we stick together,” he said. “We must unite America again. That’s my goal. And may God bless our troops,” he said.

Some Democratic politicians, including Sen. Bob Casey Jr., Philadelphia Mayor Cherelle Parker, state Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta, and Congresswoman Madeleine Dean, attended the church service as well. Dean travelled with Biden on both of his Pennsylvania stops Sunday, as did one of the president’s most loyal supporters, U.S. Sen. John Fetterman.

“There is only one person in the country that’s ever kicked Trump’s ass in an election —and that is your president,” Fetterman said. “He’s going to do it twice.”

Kenyatta, who is running for auditor general, said, “Joe Biden has delivered for Pennsylvania. Now we have to deliver for him and Democrats up and down the ballot to beat back the radical Project 2025 agenda of Donald Trump and Republicans.”

“Yesterday, Joe Biden couldn’t even be bothered to shake the hand of a Black supporter in the crowd, but today he’s continuing his minority pandering tour in Pennsylvania where his approval rating has dropped to 33 percent.  Clearly, Black voters are no longer buying the desperate and disingenuous faux outreach from Democrats,” said Janiyah Thomas,  director of Team Trump Black Media.

Republican Dave McCormick, an Army veteran running against Casey, said on X, “Today, Bob Casey is campaigning with President Biden in PA. Biden is not capable of serving as our Commander-in-Chief, and Casey knows it — he will lie all the way thru Election Day if he thinks it will help him win.

Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley said, “Joe Biden only has 33 percent approval in the Keystone State because his policies have failed Pennsylvania families. From crippling inflation and housing prices that are making life unaffordable to police shortages and deadly fentanyl that are making communities less safe, it’s no wonder why Pennsylvania voters are lining up to Make America Great Again by supporting President Trump.”

“Short visits in front of overwhelmingly friendly groups are not going to alleviate the concerns the American people have about Biden’s ability to do the job – let alone run for another term,” said Christian Nascimento, chair of the Montgomery County GOP.

Casey was also with Biden to an ice social rally near Harrisburg later Sunday. His campaign did not respond to a request for comment on Sunday.

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During a recent “fireside chat” with the Northhampton County chapter of Moms for Liberty, GOP U.S. Senate candidate Dave McCormick spoke as a dad about public policy issues like protecting girls-only sports and spaces in public schools.

“As the father of six daughters, this resonates with me so much. The very idea of allowing  biological males to compete with biological females is fundamentally unfair.

“It guts women’s sports,” McCormick went on. While Title IX protects girls and women’s sports and education, adding biological males “is part of a broader ideological shift.”

McCormick added that, as a parent, he’s concerned about content on topics like sex and gender being introduced to children too young to process it.

“Our schools are introducing transgender ideology to young children before they are old enough to form their own views as adults. And so I think it’s deeply troubling. It’s something that I would be completely opposed to as a senator…We need to get commonsense back.”

The Republican candidate also slammed his opponent, three-term Democrat Sen. Bob Casey Jr., for a letter Casey wrote last year claiming concerns about transgender athletes competing in college and high school sports are “overgeneralized.”

Also at the event was Betsy DeVos, who served as President Donald Trump’s secretary of education.

“This is an issue very timely because the rule the Biden administration has put forward that would extend the definition of gender to include gender identity, the downstream ramifications of that you can’t begin to really articulate all the different ways in which it would negatively impact everything in our culture which already has lots of challenges,” DeVos said.

She called the change, which is set to take effect in August, “fundamentally unfair” and urged people to contact their members of Congress to oppose this rule.

“Bob Casey had a chance to do the right thing and to vote against this,” said DeVos. “And to dismiss it and say it’s not a real problem is absolutely false.”

McCormick said decried the nation’s academic achievement gap compared to other advanced nations.

“We have lost progress and that’s while spending a trillion dollars over the last 50 years on the Department of Education,” he said.

Meanwhile, America is losing a generation to “woke” ideology.

“Just turn on the television and see those kids marching on campuses. They don’t know the difference between right and wrong, between good and evil. It’s not just antisemitism. It’s anti-Americanism. Only about a third of (college students) believe America is exceptional.”

“And my recollection of the history that I was taught is that by any measure, analytically, America has been an extraordinary success…liberating the world from the Nazis, winning the Cold War,” said McCormick. “And it’s had some dark chapters, dark chapters that we’ve overcome and we’re still overcoming. It’s imperfect. But it’s a great source of liberty and wealth for the world. That’s the history that’s unfortunately not being taught. It shows up in our recruiting numbers. It shows up on our campuses. And it’s because of, among other things, this ideology.”

McCormick, who grew up in Bloomsburg, noted that both his parents were teachers, that he went to public schools and that teachers and coaches were the most important influences on his life. A high school wrestler, he went to West Point, became an 82nd Airborne paratrooper, was a successful Pittsburgh businessman and a hedge fund CEO, before entering politics.

“If you have a generation that doesn’t really believe in American exceptionalism, who don’t understand our history, who don’t have the skills, the capabilities to take on this generation of challenges,” McCormick said.  “We are in a complicated world.  The rest of the world is not standing idle.  They’re moving forward.”

One “blessing” of COVID was that parents saw what their schools were teaching their kids and got more involved, he said. McCormick supports school choice.

“That opportunity will create better educational outcomes, that competition will create better opportunity, that competition will create more honesty.  That competition is the pathway to creating equal opportunity for all,” he said.

For DeVos, the big-picture problem is the power of government schools and teachers unions. “The system to which most kids are subjected to today is essentially a monopoly. Unless you have the resources to do something different, your children are headed by a monopolistic structure, and we see from the very top of it, which is the teachers’ union, the AFT and, the NEA, and all the allied organizations, have continued to influence down to the lowest level everything that has gone on in the system.”

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As the clock ticks down to the 2024 election, a new Muhlenberg College poll has former President Donald Trump with a narrow three-point edge over President Joe Biden, 44 to 41 percent. But the poll found that if independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is on the ballot, he takes 18 percent of the vote, leaving Trump and Biden tied at 35 percent.

The same poll of 417 registered voters conducted between April 15 and 25 shows three-term incumbent Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D-Pa.) at 45 percent to Republican challenger Dave McCormick’s 41 percent.

The poll is the second within the past month to show McCormick is closing the gap against Casey, after Emerson College’s April survey found Casey’s lead had narrowed to just four points.

Political observers say both Biden and Trump are well-known to the public and it’s unlikely that many voters will shift their views in the remaining six months until November.

“I imagine we will see little ebbs and flows between Biden and Trump’s poll numbers over the next six months, but I would be surprised by any major shifts given how cemented the candidates are in most voters’ minds. Just like 2016 and 2020, the race in Pennsylvania is likely to be very close,” said Muhlenberg political science Professor Christopher Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion.

Quantum Communications CEO Charlie Gerow said, “This poll confirms that Donald Trump leads in Pennsylvania by an increasingly significant margin. That’s not surprising. The Biden economy is hurting ordinary Pennsylvanians, and they are going to vote against him in November.”

“Biden’s approval ratings continue to sink as Americans and Pennsylvanians in particular see someone who simply doesn’t have the capacity to lead,’ Gerow added.

The poll also found that Biden’s 2024 campaign to win Pennsylvania, a key swing state, is being undermined by poor job approval ratings (35 percent). And, only 33 percent of voters believe that Biden deserves a second term.

However, Biden and Trump both must contend with high unfavorable ratings among Pennsylvania voters. Some 57 percent disapprove of Biden and 55 percent hold similar negative views of Trump.

“The Presidential race will have an impact on the Senate race in terms of keeping the Senate votes fairly close to the presidential results, but by no means determine the winner. There is room for both Casey and McCormick to build enough separation from their presidential candidates that they can find a path to victory even if their party loses the presidential race,” Borick said. “A significant portion of voters either haven’t heard of McCormick, or have no opinion about him, so both his and Casey’s campaign will be active in defining him for that audience.”

Gerow said, “The poll also shows that Dave McCormick has an excellent shot at defeating Bob Casey. Casey’s lackluster record will be contrasted by McCormick’s service in the military,  as a job creator and as someone who has accomplished a great deal.”

“Bob Casey has spent his entire adult life in politics pushing the Democrat party line while his family got rich off his Senate office—that’s why he’s in the race of his life against Dave McCormick. Pennsylvanians need a senator who will put them first, not a career politician like Bob Casey,” said National Republican Senate Committee Spokesman Philip Letsou.

An election survey of Pennsylvania voters ages 50 and older conducted by Fabrizio Ward & Impact Research on behalf of AARP was also released this week. Not surprisingly, those voters are concerned about Social Security, Medicare and the cost of prescription medications.

In the 2020 elections, older voters accounted for 55 percent of all Pennsylvania voters and in the 2022 mid-terms, they comprised 62 percent of the state’s voters. Eighty-five percent of voters ages 50 and older say they are “extremely motivated” to vote in this election.

Among these older voters, Trump leads Biden by 52 percent to 42 percent. Casey leads McCormick 48 percent to 44 percent.

Elizabeth Gregory, a spokeswoman for McCormick, said, “Pennsylvanians from across the commonwealth are joining Dave’s movement to send a 7th-generation Pennsylvanian, combat veteran, and PA job creator to the Senate to deliver new leadership and fresh ideas. From day one of this campaign, Dave has been laser-focused on uniting the party and training our fire on career politician Bob Casey, who has voted for Joe Biden’s failing agenda 98 percent of the time, fueling a border crisis that has killed over 4,000 Pennsylvanians from fentanyl, violent crime, record inflation and regulations that are killing the commonwealth’s energy sector. On November 5, Pennsylvania will retire empty suit Bob Casey and send Dave McCormick to the Senate.”

The Casey campaign did not respond to a request for comment.

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If you’re running for office in Pennsylvania, you need to stop in South Philadelphia for a cheesesteak and to schmooze with the locals.

Republican Senate candidate Dave McCormick checked that box last week when he visited Geno’s Steaks accompanied by some Republican heavyweights.

In addition to talking with supporters, McCormick put on an apron and fried some steak.

“This campaign is all about connecting with Pennsylvanians in every corner of our great commonwealth. Our stop at Geno’s, a Philadelphia institution that makes a great cheesesteak, was a fun opportunity to meet with voters and even hop behind the counter to test our skills on the grill. I’m grateful for the support of two great public servants, former Sens. Pat Toomey and Rick Santorum, who understand what it takes to deliver results for Pennsylvania,” said McCormick.

McCormick had his cheesesteak “wiz wit.”

Dave McCormick (right) with former Sen. Pat Toomey (center) and a supporter.

Earlier Wednesday, McCormick held a rally in Shavertown, Scranton, Wilkes-Barre area with Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) and Santorum. Then, they hopped on McCormick’s campaign bus and headed to Philadelphia, where Toomey joined them.

Daines chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

House Republicans have also been jumping on the McCormick bandwagon, including Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), who, like McCormick, is a former wrestler. Jordan told Punchbowl News, “McCormick’s a great candidate and a wrestling guy. We want to do some things with the wrestling community in Pennsylvania because it’s so strong. It’s the biggest wrestling state in the country.”

Jordan plans to hold a fundraiser for McCormick later this month.

McCormick said previously he is “honored to receive the endorsement of fellow former wrestler Jim Jordan. Jim is a fearless leader in Congress, and I’m grateful for his support.” He also referenced “the toughness, resilience, and leadership [they all] learned on the mat… I’m proud to share a common bond and passion for our sport.”

McCormick wrestled in high school in Bloomsburg and in college at West Point. He’s even airing a commercial about it.

Both Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D-Pa.), McCormick’s general election opponent, and McCormick have full campaign coffers. McCormick’s campaign posted $6.2 million in the first quarter of 2024, including $1 million of his own money. Prior to entering politics, McCormick was a successful businessman.

“Pennsylvanians from across the commonwealth are joining the movement to elect Dave McCormick, a seventh-generation Pennsylvanian, combat veteran, and Pennsylvania job creator who will bring new leadership and fresh ideas to the Senate. Career politician Bob Casey has voted for Joe Biden’s failing agenda 98 percent of the time, fueling a border crisis that has killed over 4,000 Pennsylvanians from fentanyl, violent crime, record inflation, and regulations that are killing the commonwealth’s energy sector,” said McCormick communications director Elizabeth Gregory. “Dave is exactly the kind of candidate who can beat Bob Casey, secure a Senate majority, and get this country back on track.”

Casey, who has also released campaign ads, raised $5.6 million in the first quarter. The Democrat is running for his fourth term.

“Our record-breaking fundraising reflects the momentum and motivation behind Senator Casey’s re-election campaign,” said Tiernan Donohue, campaign manager for Bob Casey for Senate. “Sen. Casey’s supporters across the commonwealth know he is facing the most competitive and expensive race of his career, and they are standing together to make sure we have the resources we need to keep this seat.”

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Three weeks before their party’s primaries even pick the nominees, the leading candidates for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania are already running TV ads targeting their November opponents.

Republican Dave McCormick’s campaign is airing an ad called “Wrestling.”

The ad highlights the Republican’s time on the Bloomsburg Area High School wrestling team. He was co-captain when the Columbia County team came in fourth place in the state and was a PIAA District 4 champion. He went on to wrestle at West Point, where he was co-captain of the Army Wrestling Team, and twice qualified for the NCAA Division I Tournament.

“Pennsylvania wrestling taught me to do the hard thing. Hard work. Hard choices. The Pennsylvania way. That’s not what we get from Washington. The career politicians don’t do the hard work. They’re selfish and soft,” McCormick says into the camera.

McCormick’s all-but-certain opponent, three-term incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey Jr., has an ad called “Stench.” It talks about veterans who were exposed to burn pits, mainly in Afghanistan and Iraq,  and may have developed health problems from them. Casey helped pass the bipartisan Burn Pits Bill to make the Veterans Administration pay for their care.

He followed that up with “Fleeced,” which blames big corporations for “greedflation.” In the ad, Casey says he plans to give the Federal Trade Commission “the power to punish corporate price-gouging.” He also wants to “roll back their huge corporate tax breaks, putting money in your pocket instead.”

Casey is a native of Scranton (like fellow Democrat Joe Biden) and the son of a former Pennsylvania Gov. Bob Casey Sr.

Casey ran for treasurer in 2004, then used the statewide office as a platform to defeat incumbent Republican Rick Santorum in 2006. He’s the first Pennsylvania Democrat to win three terms in the U.S. Senate.

Casey chairs the U.S. Senate’s Special Committee on Aging, as well as serving on the Finance, Intelligence and HELP (Health, Education, Labor and Pensions) committees.

McCormick served as a paratrooper in the 82nd Airborne Division. He was deployed to the Middle East during the First Gulf War and received the Bronze Star for his service in Iraq before retiring as a captain. After leaving the Army, McCormick, 58, earned a Ph.D. in international affairs at Princeton. He then joined and led a successful tech business in Pittsburgh before taking positions in the George W. Bush administration.

He served as the U.S. Treasury Under Secretary for International Affairs, on the National Security Council, and in the Department of Commerce. McCormick was CEO and president of two publicly traded software companies and a consultant at McKinsey & Co.

He was the CEO of Bridgewater Associates, one of the world’s largest hedge funds, before jumping into politics in 2022. At that time, he told DVJournal that he was inspired to run for office after President Joe Biden’s disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, where 13 service members and numerous Afghan people lost their lives.

He ran for Senate and lost the primary by fewer than 1,000 votes to Dr. Mehmet Oz, who went on to lose to now-Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.)

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Republican Dave McCormick, a successful businessman running against Sen. Bob Casey Jr., called out the three-term senator for his votes on illegal immigration.

“Last night, while most were asleep, Bob Casey voted to allow Pennsylvania’s taxpayer dollars to fund illegal aliens’ flights into our country. This disaster is leading to the fentanyl deaths of 4,000 Pennsylvanians a year. A failure of leadership of disastrous proportions,” McCormick posted to social media after Casey voted for the $1.2 trillion omnibus spending bill.

Pennsylvania has been the destination for “ghost flights,” bringing hundreds of illegal immigrants here, often in the dead of night. And President Joe Biden’s policy of flying “paroled” illegals from Venezuela and Haiti into the U.S. is also under fire.

Casey also voted against the Laken Riley Act amendment to that spending bill. Riley, a young Georgia college student, was brutally killed while out on a run across campus, allegedly by an illegal immigrant. The bill would require that any illegal immigrant who committed burglary, larceny, shoplifting, or theft be detained.

McCormick also criticized his Democratic opponent for that vote.

“Laken Riley would still be alive if Jose Ibarra — an illegal immigrant — was deported after breaking our laws in the first place. Bob Casey just voted against making it easier to deport criminals like Ibarra. PA needs a senator who will fight evil, not enable it,” McCormick posted to X.

In September, Danelo Cavalcante, an illegal immigrant who escaped from the Chester County prison, kept police, state police and the U.S. Border Patrol busy as he evaded capture for 14 days. Cavalcante had been convicted of murder for the stabbing death of his girlfriend in August and was awaiting sentencing when he crab-walked between two walls to a roof and fled the jail. The manhunt led to fear and inconvenience for Delaware Valley residents, especially after he stole a rifle.

Casey also voted to give undocumented immigrants federal benefits, opposed border security measures, and voted to keep counting illegal immigrants in the U.S. Census.

He voted three times to keep giving federal money to sanctuary cities and opposed an executive order from former President Donald Trump to rein in sanctuary cities. Sanctuary cities, including Philadelphia, don’t cooperate with Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). Casey also voted against Kate’s Law, which would have set mandatory minimums for deported felons who reenter the U.S. illegally.

Some illegal immigrants who’ve been flooding across the southern border are believed to be drug mules, bringing deadly fentanyl and other drugs into the U.S. The number of overdose deaths in Pennsylvania grew by 19.5 percent from 2019 (4,479) to 2021 (5,356). And 78.4 percent of all overdose deaths in Pennsylvania involved fentanyl in 2022.

The Casey campaign did not respond to requests for comment. However, a Casey spokesperson told another news outlet he opposes sanctuary  cities.  

But a new Cygnal poll commissioned by the Republican State Leadership Committee showed Pennsylvania voters are most concerned about inflation (32 percent) and immigration/border security (28 percent). The poll was taken March 10 through 12.

National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesman Philip Letsou said, “Just one month after Laken Riley was murdered, Bob Casey voted to allow illegal immigrants to be released into the country, fund flights for illegals throughout the country, and continue funding sanctuary cities. Casey refuses to stand up to his party, and the Democrats’ radical agenda is making our country less safe.”

“Putting every Pennsylvanian at risk, Bob Casey is in lockstep with Joe Biden’s deadly, pro-criminal agenda. Casey has recklessly prioritized sanctuary cities and illegal immigrants over the safety of Keystone State families, who will reject his failures and vote Republican this November,” added Rachel Lee, Republican National Committee spokesperson.

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