Can Gov. Josh Shapiro remain the “just right” candidate?
The first-term Democrat made the potential 2024 vice presidential list as part of the moderate, centrist wing. Today, as outspoken progressives like U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and New York City Democratic mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani grab his party’s attention, Shapiro isn’t facing a reelection challenge from his left.
The question political professionals are asking is whether Shapiro can remain in the “Goldilocks” lane through the 2026 gubernatorial race and on to a potential White House bid two years later.
A Morning Consult poll shows Shapiro’s approval rating is above 60 percent, and he’s widely viewed as the frontrunner in a potential matchup against Treasurer Stacy Garrity (R) next year. State records show he had more than $11 million in campaign cash as of the end of 2024.
At the same time, Shapiro has faced criticism for his handling of a sexual harassment scandal in his administration, transparency, support for Israel, self-promotion with state funds, and delayed state budgets. Conservatives criticize his flip-flop on school choice and his support for biological boys playing on girls’ teams.
All of this comes as data show more Keystone State voters are turning to the Republican Party. The Democrats’ once-significant advantage among registered voters is nearly gone, The New York Times reports. “Much of that change is from party switchers. From 2020 through July 2025, nearly twice as many Pennsylvania Democrats switched to become Republicans (314,000) as the other way around (161,000), state records show.”
With his party pushing farther to the left and his state drifting right, can Shapiro stay on his political tightrope?
Democratic strategist T.J. Rooney thinks he can.
“Gov. Shapiro is relatable to average Pennsylvanians in a way no governor in the recent past has been able to achieve,” Rooney told DVJournal. “He has built his reputation as a pragmatic moderate, someone who listens first and acts in ways that reflect the broad middle of the commonwealth.
“If you can be viewed favorably by a large majority of voters, across party lines, it suggests you have something to say that’s worth listening to. That credibility helps explain both the governor’s in-state popularity and his growing attraction to voters outside of Pennsylvania,” Rooney said.
Muhlenberg College political science professor Christopher Borick doesn’t believe a serious primary challenge is likely.
“Shapiro certainly has not endeared himself to progressives on a number of issues, but in the Trump era, the idea of mounting a primary challenge against him is not very attractive,” Borick said. “While he has displeased many on the left with his approach to environmental policy, positions on Gaza, and some social issues, his overall record hasn’t created the type of energy and desire necessary to mount a realistic primary challenge. It’s very clear any challenge would fail, and thus, engaging in such an effort seems fruitless at this point.”
Jeff Brauer, a political science professor at Keystone College, says Shapiro is getting political cover from what may appear to be an unlikely source: Donald Trump.
In the past, Shapiro’s breaks with liberal orthodoxy might have been enough to inspire a progressive backlash, but not today.
“In the age of Trump, those concerns mentioned are seemingly less significant, especially for a master politician like Shapiro who navigates through them. In years past, certainly many of those issues would have been instantly disqualifying. But voters have become more forgiving of, even numb to, many politicians’ shortcomings — as long as they like their style and generally agree with their stances,” Brauer said.
“At the moment, Gov. Shapiro remains the best hope for Democrats to win the 2028 presidential election, and many Democrats realize this. He is a pragmatic, moderate politician who enjoys bipartisan popularity in a most important swing state, Pennsylvania.”
Rooney agrees.
“While it’s natural for critics to raise questions about individual issues, the governor’s ability to connect with people, cut through partisanship, and focus on practical solutions is why he continues to resonate so strongly at home—and why many believe he has the potential to walk the national stage in the years ahead,” Rooney added.