With Republican U.S. Rep. Dan Meuser’s announcement this week that he will not run for governor against incumbent Democrat Gov. Josh Shapiro, the field is clear for Republican Treasurer Stacy Garrity to throw her hat into the ring.
“Congressman Meuser is my representative, and I truly value the strong relationship we’ve built over the years,” Garrity told DVJournal. “I commend him for his principled leadership in Congress and devotion to the people of the 9th District. I will have an announcement about the future of my career in service very soon.”
Twice elected state treasurer, Garrity served in the U.S. Army Reserve and worked for Global Tungsten and Powders Corp., a worldwide supplier of refractory powders. She began as a cost accountant and eventually became the company’s first female vice president.
Could she be Pennsylvania’s first woman governor?
“If Stacy Garrity runs, she will be a very formidable candidate,” said Republican political consultant Charlie Gerow, CEO of Quantum Communications. “She has been underestimated in the past, but those who have done so did so at their peril.”
Muhlenberg College political science Professor Christopher Borick said Garrity is now “the clear favorite for the GOP nomination.”
“I think she has solid name recognition and a record of statewide electoral success that would help her to secure formidable financial resources for a gubernatorial run,” said Borick. “However, her choice to jump in the race in a cycle that is historically challenging for the president’s party and against a very well-funded incumbent governor in the form of Josh Shapiro is politically perilous. She can likely serve out her term as treasurer with a popular standing and be well-positioned in 2030 for an open seat (rather than) risk tarnishing her reputation in 2026 if she were to lose to Shapiro.”
“It would appear the Republicans are intent on nominating Ms. Garrity,” said Democratic consultant TJ Rooney. “If they are successful in rallying around her and avoid spending resources in an expensive primary, they would find themselves well ahead of where they were four years ago. Ms. Garrity is a more electable Republican than many who have come before her in recent years.”
In the 2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election, Democrats rallied around Shapiro, while Republicans began with 11 candidates competing in a contentious primary before the voters ultimately settled on state Sen. Doug Mastriano (R-Franklin), who also received President Donald Trump’s endorsement.
Jeff Coleman, founder and principal of Churchill Strategies, believes that politically, “Shapiro has done everything right to be reelected. He’s taken few risks, managed opportunities well, and steered clear of personal scandal. He’s also cultivated a reputation for being temperamentally moderate, without breaking trust with progressives.”
Garrity “has certainly managed her opportunities well, too—but in a different way. She’s developed a big, loyal following among grassroots Republicans. She’s also taken strategic risks to stand out, but maybe most importantly, she’s been supporting the president without being an imitation or mimic.
“There’s also some evidence she’s carved out pockets of support with some disaffected Democrats. If she decides to run, I think the money would be there to run a credible campaign.”
He added, “The only way to defeat this governor is to be for something. We’re in a moment where we know what it means to be a Republican nationally, but what does it mean in Pennsylvania? What’s the plan? What’s the Republican case for a management change? These are really, really tough questions when the party and its agenda has been driven by a single person. I don’t think it’s enough to be a critic with charisma.”
Democratic consultant Brittany Crampsie believes Garrity is unlikely to beat Shapiro, who she called “a popular incumbent with a lot of successes under his belt.”
“But we have to believe Republicans in state and around the country are going to invest whatever it takes to reclaim the governor’s mansion for the first time in over a decade,” said Crampsie. “Looking at a Garrity campaign, I think her bigger issue will be her praise of the BBB that’s about to knock 300,000 Pennsylvanians off of their healthcare and her extreme anti-abortion position that won’t sit well with a general electorate that will get to know her much better over the coming year.”
Jeff Jubelirer, with Bellevue Communications, believes Garrity will garner widespread Republican support and “have sufficient resources to compete. I don’t think by any stretch she will outraise Shapiro, however.
“She doesn’t have a lot of name recognition given the treasurer’s job is not often in the public spotlight, but she did receive the highest number of votes for a statewide candidate in the last cycle. That being said, I think it’ll be an uphill climb for her to win, especially with Trump not on the ballot in 2026,” Jubelirer said.
However, state Sen. Greg Rothman (R-Cumberland), who was elected chairman of the state GOP in February, told DVJournal that he believes Republicans can beat Shapiro in 2026.
“Josh Shapiro can be beaten,” said Rothman. “But we’re not going to beat him if we say we can’t beat him.”