DV Journal

The Pennsylvania Supreme Court landed yet another blow against Democrat U.S. Sen. Bob Casey’s hope of overturning his defeat at the hands of his Republican challenger.

The court ruled 4-3 in favor of Dave McCormick’s request to reject undated mail ballots.

“[M]ail-in and absentee ballots that fail to comply with the requires of the Pennsylvania Election Code SHALL NOT BE COUNTED for purposes of the election held on November 5, 2024,” the justices ruled Monday.

McCormick, the Pennsylvania Republican Party, and the Republican National Committee invoked the court’s rarely-used King’s Bench Power. The authority allows the Supreme Court to consider “any case pending in a lower court.”

The court ordered that all Boards of Elections in the state, “including … in Bucks County, Montgomery County, and Philadelphia County, SHALL COMPLY with the prior rulings of this Court.”

It wasn’t a surprise. On Nov. 1, a unanimous Supreme Court stayed a late October ruling by the Commonwealth Court that said 69 undated and incorrectly dated absentee and mail-in ballots in a Philadelphia special election could be counted.

McCormick’s lead over incumbent Casey was almost 18,000 votes in unofficial tallies. And while both the Associated Press and DecisionDeskHQ have called the race for McCormick, Casey has refused to concede. He declined to waive his right for a recount last week. That should be completed by Nov. 27.

Adding fuel to the fire were decisions by Democrats in Bucks and Montgomery Counties to validate undated or incorrectly dated ballots – even though they admitted to ignoring the state Supreme Court.

“I think we all know that precedent by a court doesn’t matter anymore in this country. People violate laws anytime they want. So, for me, if I violate this law, it’s because I want a court to pay attention,” said Bucks County Commission Chair Diane Ellis-Marseglia last week during a meeting.

Ellis-Marseglia donated $600 to Casey’s campaign in September.

Republicans said Monday they could ask for legal action against Ellis-Marseglia and other Democrats who flouted the ruling.

Supreme Court Justice Kevin Brobson appeared to acknowledge Ellis-Marseglia’s statements in his concurring opinion Monday on the ballot decision.

“Indeed, this Court has held that administrative agencies, like county boards of elections, lack the authority to declare unconstitutional the very statutes from which they derive their existence and which they are charged to enforce,” Republican Brobson wrote.

Fellow Republican Justice Sallie Mundy and Democrat Justice David Wecht joined Brobson’s concurrence.

Democrat Justice Kevin Dougherty also ruled in favor of McCormick, but did not issue a statement. On Nov. 1, Dougherty heaped scorn on the Commonwealth Court for its decision on undated ballots. He accused it of changing the electoral game “on the very eve of the election” after mail ballots had been shipped and returned. He noted voters, boards of elections, and election workers were already advised on “the handling of undated and misdated ballots.”

Other Democrat justices were not convinced.

Justice Christine Donohue wrote she was “unpersuaded” by Republican arguments over the flawed ballots. She wanted the ballots to be challenged through the courts of common pleas, as written in the Election Code.

Donohue voted in favor of staying the Commonwealth Court’s decision on undated ballots on Nov. 1.

McCormick’s campaign hailed the ruling.

“[It’s] a massive setback to Sen. Casey’s attempt to count illegal ballots. Bucks County and others blatantly violated the law in an effort to help Sen. Casey. Sen.-elect McCormick is very pleased with this ruling and looks forward to taking the oath of office in a few short weeks,” said Elizabeth Gregory, McCormick communications director.

She later told DVJournal all justices agreed with McCormick on the merits.

Gov. Josh Shapiro said, “As I have made clear for years, every eligible Pennsylvanian’s vote should be counted in every race – and thanks to the hard work of Republican and Democratic election officials all across the commonwealth, Pennsylvania has held another free, fair, safe, and secure election.

“As counties continued counting ballots from the 2024 general election and a mandatory statewide recount begins in the U.S. Senate race, they were confronted with a lack of legal clarity surrounding undated mail-in ballots that caused significant confusion and put counties in a challenging legal position. Both my predecessor and I have repeatedly called on lawmakers to deliver greater clarity on mail-in voting – and due to certain legislative actors refusing to act on critical election reforms, this issue had been left to the courts,” Shapiro said.

“Given this lack of clarity, county officials in each of our 67 counties were damned if they did and damned if they didn’t – likely facing legal action no matter which decision they made on counting.”

Shapiro expects county officials “to adhere to this ruling and all the applicable laws governing our elections.”

“As we move forward, I want to be clear: any insinuation that our laws can be ignored or do not matter is irresponsible and does damage to faith in our electoral process. The rule of law matters in this commonwealth, and as I have always said, it is critical for counties and officials in both parties to respect it with both their rhetoric and their actions. As governor, I will continue working to protect our democracy and the votes of all eligible Pennsylvanians – and we will continue to have free, fair, safe, secure elections in our commonwealth.”

The Casey campaign has not commented.

Earlier in the day, Casey campaign manager Tiernan Donohue accused Republicans of trying to disenfranchise voters and vowed  to keep fighting. “Sen. Casey is fighting to ensure Pennsylvanians’ voices are heard and to protect their right to participate in our democracy – just like he has done throughout his entire career,” she said.

PennLive.com also published an article from Casey that claimed the debate was “about the constitutionality of disenfranchising thousands of voters due to a requirement that has no bearing on a voters’ eligibility and has no impact in deterring fraud.”

It’s the eighth time an automatic recount will happen in a Pennsylvania election since 2004, according to Secretary of the Commonwealth Al Schmidt’s office and the second involving McCormick. He lost to Mehmet Oz two years ago in the GOP U.S. Senate primary.

McCormick was in Washington, D.C. last week for U.S. Senate orientation.

Although the AP called the U.S. Senate race for Republican Dave McCormick last week, three-term incumbent Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) still refuses to concede.

Instead, he’s got controversial Democratic attorney Marc Elias in Pennsylvania trying to swing the race back his way. That effort is getting support from some Delaware Valley Democrats.

The Montgomery County Democratic Party sent an email Sunday urging local party members to participate in the ballot curing effort.

“There is more to do — we have more doors to hit in MontCo, DelCo… and can support in Berks and Philly, too. Given that literally every vote is needed, the PA Coordinated Campaign is launching a ballot cure canvass out of the Wayne office,” they wrote.

Temple University political science Professor Robin Kolodny said ‘‘curing’ means fixing a mail ballot that has minor mistakes such as signature issues. Some of the typical problems are having an incomplete date, signatures that don’t match the one on file, and depending on the county, whether it’s “naked” or not in the inside envelope provided, she said.

U.S. Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) and the Casey campaign have also been sending fundraising emails supporting the ballot hunt.

Meanwhile, McCormick is in Washington, D.C. for Senate orientation week — despite not getting an invitation from outgoing Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) Many Republicans are outraged by the snub, and they urged McCormick to attend, anyway. Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) has offered to escort McCormick into the Senate orientation.

However, on Tuesday morning Schumer’s assistant said Schumer has reversed course and was invited to attend the orientation after all.

“Dave McCormick is going to come to the orientation,” Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) said in a Fox Business interview Monday. “I would say, ‘Look, Leader Schumer, it’s not like Dave McCormick is being sworn in this week. He is attending an orientation. So, allow him to participate. Be gracious, you lost, please get over it.’”

McCormick’s spokesperson, Nate Sizemore, told DVJournal that McCormick will be there, a message confirmed by the senator-elect on social media: “Looking forward to joining the Senate freshman class of 2025 for orientation this week! I’m honored to represent the people of Pennsylvania, and will fight hard to make sure their voices are heard in Washington. Let’s get to work!”

In Pennsylvania, the GOP has its own lawyers keeping an eye on the vote count.

“The Republican National Committee (RNC) has lawyers across the Commonwealth participating in the canvassing of the ballots, making sure every legally cast and valid vote is counted. As we have done throughout this election, we are protecting the vote.  Hopefully, Sen. Casey will concede graciously and not prolong this election,” said Linda Kerns, an RNC election lawyer.

McCormick campaign Manager Matt Gruda reposted Philadelphia election Commissioner Seth Bluestein, “In my experience, provisional ballot results don’t differ significantly from the overall voting trends in a particular race. If there are 100,000 ballots to count in a close contest, the overall vote differential is unlikely to change by more than a few thousand.”

McCormick was 40,040 votes ahead or o.58 percent, as of this writing.

And McCormick campaign advisor Mark D. Harris posted a statement reiterating that the race is over.

“Democratic counties are likely to report first in the provisionals and Senator-elect McCormick’s large 40,000 margin will shrink a bit, likely ending up in a recount that won’t change a thing. We knew this would happen and it will exhaust the remaining good ballots for Casey.

“A recount would be a waste of time and taxpayer money, but it’s Senator Casey’s prerogative. Our lead of tens of thousands will be too big for any recount to make a difference,” Harris added.

A jubilant Dave McCormick celebrated his upset victory over U.S. Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D-Pa.).

The Associated Press called the race for McCormick on Thursday.

“We knew on Election Night we had won because the math was clear. There’s no way for Senator Casey to win,” The Republican Senator-elect said at a rally in Pittsburgh on Friday.

McCormick’s lead over Casey is about half a percentage point, in unofficial returns.

Casey has yet to concede, however. His campaign argued that all the votes have yet to be counted, specifically provisional ballots in Philadelphia.

“Reminder: there are at least 100K ballots left to count,” Casey campaign spokesperson Maddy McDaniel posted on social media.

Casey later said Friday all votes needed to be counted because Pennsylvania “is the birthplace of our democracy.”

McCormick sympathized with Casey on the close Election Day loss. McCormick pointed out his 900-vote loss to Dr. Mehmet Oz in the 2022 GOP primary for U.S. Senate. He noted that Casey is “going to have to work through” his feelings about only his second election loss in 22 years.

But McCormick added it was time to “move on” and put the focus on the country’s direction. “There’s a mandate for change. That’s where my attention starts today,” he said.

It’s a race that long held the attention of the national Republican Party, and yet another feather in its cap from an excellent showing on Election Day. The GOP won the White House and flipped the U.S. Senate. It’s also believed they have the upper hand in retaining control of the House.

To that end, McCormick said President-elect Donald Trump has put together a huge agenda for the next four years. It’s expected to focus on lowering inflation, increasing border security, and reducing fentanyl deaths.

He called the issues “problems for everybody.” McCormick promised to work with state Republicans and Democrats on solutions – name-checking Pennsylvania Democrats like U.S. Sen. John Fetterman and Gov. Josh Shapiro.

One issue that McCormick seemed to position himself as leader on is energy. He called on the government to get rid of red tape and “streamline the permitting process” for energy projects in the Keystone State. McCormick encouraged the state to further embrace the power of natural gas, but also other forms of energy.

“[Let’s] make sure Pennsylvania not only becomes the most dynamic economy in our great country, but also creates these great paying jobs for every single Pennsylvanian,” he said.

McCormick’s win over Casey is one of the bigger upsets of this year’s election cycle. He trailed by 13 points in the polls before Labor Day. Polls tightened to within the margin of error by mid-September, but Casey was also expected to win.

Voters apparently felt otherwise.

There are still provisional and absentee ballots that need to be counted, particularly in Philadelphia County. That’s caused outlets like DecisionDeskHQ and the New York Times to wait before anointing McCormick the winner.

McCormick’s team quickly filed an injunction against the Philadelphia County Board of Elections, arguing that GOP representatives must be present for provisional ballot review to ensure fair oversight. They raised concerns about the large number of Democratic representatives involved in the process.

“Plaintiff is concerned that … adjudication of the ballots will occur in such a fashion as to preclude Plaintiff, the Republican Party and/or their respective authorized representatives from exercising their rights…” McCormick’s attorneys wrote in court documents obtained by Democracy Docket.

They’ve asked a judge to issue an injunction to make sure the GOP has representatives to observe the ballot counting.

McCormick doesn’t foresee the results changing, despite the legal maneuvers.

“I think it’s indisputable there’s no path to victory [for Casey].”

The Associated Press has declared Republican Dave McCormick the next U.S. senator from Pennsylvania, defeating three-term incumbent Democrat Sen. Bob Casey.

But Casey is refusing to concede.

“This race is within half a point and cannot be called while the votes of thousands of Pennsylvanians are still being counted,” the campaign said in a statement.

The announcement came just hours after the McCormick campaign declared the race over.

“While votes continue to be counted, any way you slice it, Dave McCormick will be the next United States senator from Pennsylvania,” said McCormick communications director Elizabeth Gregory.

Earlier, U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) urged Casey to call it a day.

“The race in Pennsylvania is over. I hope Sen. Casey will accept this and concede to Dave McCormick so he can begin the important work of preparing to represent the commonwealth in the U.S. Senate,” Rubio posted on X.

Casey said he wouldn’t, until all votes were counted.

”It has been made clear there are more than 100,000 votes still to be counted. Pennsylvania is where our democratic process was born. We must allow that process to play out and ensure that every vote that is eligible to be counted will be counted. That is what Pennsylvania deserves,” he wrote on X.

Calling the race was delayed due to a ballot printing issue in Cambria County. Elections officials were hand-counting the ballots, and McCormick was expected to win the county.

McCormick leads Casey by almost half of a percentage point in unofficial returns.

McCormick’s victory is particularly impressive after his loss in the 2022 GOP U.S. Senate primary, and months of trailing in the polls by double digits just before Labor Day. The race tightened to within the margin of error by late September and remained there through Election Day.

Money flowed into the race as the polls tightened. AdImpact Politics called it the second-most expensive race this campaign cycle with total ad spending topping $340 million. And while spending was mostly equal on both sides, Republicans pumped millions into the race in October. They outspent Democrats by more than $9.1 million in the final month.

That doesn’t count the $264 million in total spending in the last 60 days of the presidential race in the Keystone State.

Most political analysts – including Republicans – believed McCormick would give Casey a run for his money but still come up short.

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball suggested the race was “Lean Democrat” going into the final week. Cook Political Report gave the race a ‘Toss Up’ rating. Split Ticket said Casey had a 66 percent chance of winning while DecisionDeskHQ gave Casey a 64 percent chance of victory. That was due to Casey’s previous electoral success. (He had lost one election before Tuesday.)

DecisionDeskHQ has yet to call the race, saying it wants to see the Cambria County results along with provision ballot totals.

NRSC Chair Steve Daines released the following statement regarding the results: “Congratulations to Dave McCormick on his incredible victory. Dave built a best-in-class campaign operation, ended a political dynasty, and will now use his considerable skills to bring bold new leadership to the United States Senate on behalf of all Pennsylvanians. I look forward to working with Dave to secure the border and bring down prices for the American people.”

The McCormick victory gives Republicans a three-seat majority in the U.S. Senate. That could reduce the influence of GOP moderates Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Susan Collins of Maine.

Election modelers defended their decision not to call the race for McCormick earlier in the day.

“We don’t know how many provisionals there are (or how they break), and you can construct a Casey win if you give him the most favorable estimates realistically possible,” Lakshya Jain with Split Ticket posted on X.

Jain doesn’t expect Casey to win, despite the hypothesis. He said McCormick is a “90 percent favorite to win” but did not believe it was callable.

McCormick’s campaign disagreed.

“Race over. Call it,” wrote campaign manager Matt Gruda.

The Keystone State is the key to winning the presidential election. And Bucks County may well be the key to winning Pennsylvania.

That was the message Saturday evening in Newtown as supporters gathered for a Get Out The Vote (GOTV) rally for Republican Senate candidate Dave McCormick, with guest U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.).

“This is the campaign we’ll never forget,” said Pat Poprik, Bucks County GOP chair. The candidates, former President Donald Trump, McCormick, Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick “are all working so hard. But it’s all down to us.”

She asked people to make phone calls, man the polls and talk to their friends about why they should vote for Republicans. Bucks County is on all the television stations and news outlets across the country.

“They’re all watching us,” said Poprik. “And there’s a reason.  We deliver. When the going gets tough, you want Bucks at your back.”

Pennsylvania GOP Chair Lawrence Tabas called on Republicans to “do like the Eagles do and give [McCormick] the tush push and get him over the goal line on Nov. 5.”

Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.)

“It’s no coincidence we are the Keystone State,” said Tabas. “It’s clear we are the key state.” Tabas noted Republicans have improved their voter registration numbers in the commonwealth. Five years ago, when he was elected state chair, the Democrats’ registration edge was more than 815,000. Now it’s down to 281,091.

“The voters in Pennsylvania have lost confidence in the Democrats when you see that kind of shift,” said Tabas. And Democrats’ mail-in ballots this fall are down by 700,000 from 2020, he said.

Dina Powell McCormick introduced Donalds, saying they both benefited from a Catholic education. Donalds was raised by a single mother in Brooklyn “with the values of our country,” she said.

Donalds said he was in Pennsylvania to do everything possible to turn out voters to make McCormick the next senator and Trump the next president.

“Dave is fantastic. A businessman. He’s done it in his life. Raising children. His wife, Dina, is amazing. [Washington, D.C.] needs people like Dave. Somebody who has built his life,” said Donalds. “Somebody who did not rely on Washington to do everything for him. He did it for himself. And you need that kind of tenacity. You need that mindset. You need that intellect in the halls of Washington.

“Compare that with your current senator,” said Donalds. “You have one. But nobody’s ever seen him. I’ve seen a lot of the other members. I’m what you call one of the more outgoing members. I meet and see everybody. If I haven’t seen you, you’ve got a problem. Pennsylvania, let me tell you the first time I ever saw what Bob Casey looked like was from a TV ad. That’s a problem.”

“He’s been playing the game of sitting back, following the leadership, not making any waves, not doing anything of substance. And then coming back here every six years and lying to you, saying that he’s fighting for you.

“He was one of the key votes in passing the bill that started inflation which has hurt all of you,” said Donalds. “He voted for the very inflation that has hurt your pocketbooks.”

McCormick took the stage to cheers and applause.

“What happens in Bucks County is going to determine who is the next president,” said McCormick. “We’ve got to change things.

“Can you think of another election in your lifetime where the consequences of getting it wrong seem so big? Where having the wrong leaders in place will take our country over the cliff, will take us to a point where we wake up and don’t recognize the America, we all love?

“It could not be more important,” he said. “The choice couldn’t be more clear.”

“At the top of the ticket, the choice between strength, that guy you saw on the stage at Butler, I was standing right there– ‘Fight, fight, fight’–against weakness,” McCormick said. Casey votes 98.6 percent of the time with the Biden-Harris administration “for that weakness.”

Voters have a choice between commonsense not to spend so much to drive up inflation and to unlock our energy sector, he said.

“We’re standing on top of the fourth largest natural gas reserves in the world. It’s great for our economy. It’s great for our security. Right here in Pennsylvania.”

“It’s commonsense we’ve got to secure our border and stop this scourge of fentanyl that kills 4,000 Pennsylvanians a year,” he said. “And the only way to have peace is have strength.”

On the other side is “a radical, liberal San Francisco agenda,” said McCormick. “Just listen to Kamala Harris in her own words. She wants to ban fracking. She wants to have mandatory buybacks of your guns. She wants to legalize the 11 million illegal immigrants and make sure they get federal benefits. She wants to eliminate your private health insurance. She wants to defund the police. And this is the one that ticks off my friends in Bloomsburg [his hometown], she wants to reduce your red meat consumption.

“This political stuff is a team sport and we need to have leadership up and down the ticket, not just President Trump, all these officials that are running,” said McCormick. “And President Trump needs a majority in the House and a majority in the Senate to get these commonsense policies in place.”

Casey has been in elected office for 30 years, 18 of them in the Senate.

“It is time for change,” he said. “Someone asked me very innocently, ‘Are you running for the Casey seat?’ and I said, ‘I’m not running for the Casey seat. You don’t get to have a seat because you’re from a political dynasty. No. This is the people’s seat.’”

Powell McCormick said, “People sometimes ask me about Dave, what made him strong? Was it wrestling, going to West Point, serving in the 82nd Airborne Division in Iraq?…But the thing that has tested my husband more than anything in the world is having six daughters [between them].  And they have tested that man more than you can imagine. And there’s three things those girls know. First, he loves them unconditionally. Second, he supports anything that they want to do. And the third, because he’s proven it over many years is, he has never let them down.”

“That’s how he feels about our country. He loves her unconditionally. He has served her with all his heart. And he will never let Pennsylvania or America down.”

Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, who unsuccessfully challenged her former boss Donald Trump in the GOP presidential primary earlier this year, was back in Pennsylvania promoting another Republican: U.S. Senate candidate Dave McCormick.

“What I am excited about is Pennsylvania actually has a candidate who’s a fighter,” said Haley, a former South Carolina governor. “He’s a combat veteran. He knows what it means to sacrifice for our country. He’s a business guy. He knows what it means to balance a budget and save dollars. He’s a dad, not of one daughter, but of six daughters. But more than that, he’s a servant.  He wants to serve. He wants to do this for our country.”

And while she and Trump may not be on the best of terms, Haley urged Delaware Valley voters to give the Republican another four years in the White House.

Nikki Haley stumping for Dave McCormick in Pennsburg.

“We have to do more than elect Dave McCormick.  We have to elect Donald Trump. Because if Donald Trump wins Pennsylvania, Dave McCormick wins Pennsylvania.”

Haley also had harsh words for McCormick’s opponent, three-term incumbent U.S. Sen. Bob Casey Jr.

“Bob Casey has been in this position for 18 years. What has he done for 18 years?”

Someone called out, “Nothing.”

“That’s the problem. We need normal people. Dave McCormick has already signed a term limits pledge. We need everybody to sign a term limits pledge,” said Haley.

Haley is popular among suburban Republicans in places like Chester, Delaware and Bucks Counties, where she significantly outperformed her statewide average in the April presidential primary. She received more than 150,000 votes in the primary, despite having dropped out of the race in early March, and she received nearly a quarter of the vote in the Philadelphia suburbs, compared to 17 percent statewide.

Haley brought up the traditionally-GOP issue of federal spending and the national debt.

“Casey voted with Kamala Harris on the American Rescue Plan. It didn’t rescue anybody,” Haley said.

“They took all of our taxpayer dollars, flushed it into the sink of wasted projects costing $2 trillion. Then they go and pass the CHIPS Act. They were saying they were going to build and manufacture [silicon] chips in America. All in the name of national security. You know what they did? They gave all of our tax dollars to these companies and didn’t even require the companies to stop manufacturing in China. What a waste.

“Do you know over 70 percent of government employees are still working remotely? Seventy-five percent of our federal buildings are sitting empty. And we are paying for that. Bob Casey did that to you,” Haley added.

She also dinged Casey over his record on illegal immigration and the flow of deadly fentanyl over the southern border and increased inflation, saying it causes the average household to spend $29,000 a year.

“The one thing that can really bring that down is to become energy dominant. Bob Casey voted against expanding fracking six times. I think he forgot the state he lives in. Who does that?”

Haley also praised McCormick’s support for making America “energy dominate again, which is good for our national security.”

“And [Casey is] willing to support a candidate for president who has said she’s willing to pack the courts and get rid of the [Senate] filibuster. That’s who Bob Casey is.”

McCormick said that while it’s routine to say every election is the most important in our lifetimes, this one really is.

“This is for our children. This is for our children’s children, and right now we’re in trouble.”

After he lost the primary in 2022 to Dr. Mehmet Oz, McCormick said he planned to leave politics but kept “getting pulled back” because he believes in America, “the greatest country in the world for individual freedom, for religious freedom, a force for good in the world,” he said. “It’s my belief America is exceptional.”

“I’m going to be a voice for getting our country back on track, a leader for getting our country back on track,” said McCormick. “Kamala Harris is the most extreme liberal nominee in modern political history. Just look at her own words, ban fracking. Transition energy workers. Legalize illegal immigration. Mandatory buybacks of your guns. Eliminate private health insurance. Defund the police. These are what she said in her own words. That’s the choice, right?

“Don’t underestimate how important this is. Pennsylvania needs someone who is willing to fight and lead in the United States Senate.”

McCormick plans to draw on his experience as a college athlete for the final spring of the campaign.

“I wrestled in college. If I got into the third period within a point or two, I always knew I’d win because the third period in wrestling is not about wrestling. It’s about mental toughness. It’s about heart. It’s about staying on offense every single second. That’s what I’m going to do in the next six days,” McCormick said.

As the Nov. 5 election nears, polls show the momentum is with former President Donald Trump and Republican Senate candidate Dave McCormick.

“As long as they avoid any big slip ups, Nov. 5 should be a very, very good night,” a confident Charlie Gerow of Quantum Communications told DVJournal.

Much has changed since the end of July, when Democratic President Joe Biden ended his reelection bid and was replaced by Vice President Kamala Harris. Democratic euphoria over dropping a nominee who appeared destined for disaster sent the relatively unknown Harris’ support soaring. A five-point Trump lead in Pennsylvania turned into a Harris lead in September, according to RealClearPolitics polling averages.

But as of Sunday, Trump was leading in eight of the 10 most recent polls tracked by RCP and held a very narrow 0.6 percent lead.

It’s much different than four years ago, when Trump trailed Biden in the months leading up to the November 2020 election.

McCormick’s polling turnaround is even more pronounced. After trailing three-term U.S. Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D-Pa.) by as many as 14 points in early August, most polls now show the two virtually tied.

Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) rallies volunteers to door knock in Newtown, Bucks County on Saturday.

“That’s not to say that Casey isn’t going to win, but he’s really having to sprint as hard as he can over the last 12 days and in the presidential race, who knows?” longtime Democratic strategist Neil Oxman told DVJournal.

Pennsylvania Republicans remain confident their message is resonating with voters, while admitting the race remains wide open.

“Nothing is ever certain in the state of Pennsylvania,” quipped Albert Eisenberg with BlueStateRed. “But I’d certainly rather be the Trump campaign right now, and frankly I think I’d rather be McCormick as well. That seat is a jump-ball and the momentum is clearly on the GOP side.”

The Casey name will still be hard to beat given the family’s decades-long history in Keystone State politics. Sen. Casey’s father, Democratic Gov. Bob Casey Sr., spent more than 20 years in elected office, and Casey Jr. has lost only one race in his political career – the 2000 Democratic primary for governor against Ed Rendell.

Northeast Pennsylvania may be the biggest question mark for Casey. Oxman said a lot of Republicans in Lackawanna County tend to vote for Casey because they liked his father.

He said, however, that Harris could hurt Casey in the region. “If he is, then it makes the Senate race even closer.”

Eisenberg thinks Trump could pull McCormick to victory if he outpaces the polls by two to four points. Trump won the state by less than 50,000 votes in 2016 and lost it by 80,000 in 2020.

While early voting is surging this year, no one knows exactly how the election will turn out. Particularly with rumors that Harris is underperforming among Black men and Latino voters.

That could spell trouble for Democrats on Election Day.

“Will everybody that they need, that they need to turn out for them – that traditionally support Democrats – do so and vote for [Harris]? Whereas I think Republicans…are more disciplined,” political strategist Jeff Jubelirer of Bellevue Communications told DVJournal.

DVJournal talked to local voters who were all-in on Trump.

Leslie Morgan from Radnor called this year’s election a “change election.”

She said Americans aren’t happy with the direction of the country, particularly with inflation and gas prices. 

“Inflation is a dream killer and they know that it happened in the Harris-Biden administration. The policies hurt all U.S. citizens,” Morgan said.

She also expressed anger over the decision by the White House to reengage with Iran and said it caused chaos in the Middle East and hurt U.S. allies. “The voters of our beloved commonwealth know this and are seemingly making a statement by swinging to a commonsense ticket of Trump-Vance and David McCormick.”

Ridley Park resident Jim S. said he used to be a Democrat until he voted for Trump. 

“This is probably the most important election of my lifetime,” he said.

Jim suggested Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine because Trump was out of office. “War is not the answer. [The election] is about who is going to do something about it.

“Hopefully, in four years we won’t be paying $8 for eggs,” he said. “Things were great under Trump.”

Republican strategist Jeff Bartos said he believes both McCormick and Trump will celebrate a W come November. He added the Harris campaign was born out of desperation.

“While Vice President Harris cannot articulate a message, President Trump has campaigned effectively on what is clear to Pennsylvanians and all Americans, namely that the Harris-Biden administration broke our economy, opened our borders, and set the world on fire,” Bartos told DVJournal. “President Trump will fix it.”

There’s still some confidence within Democratic circles.

Despite the tough polls and apparent voter discontent, Oxman isn’t convinced they accurately reflect the mood of the electorate. He said one Democratic strategist theorized about a hidden Harris vote, mostly among the under-30 voters.

“[They] don’t answer their cell phones, [their] parents scream because they can’t get a hold of them, they’re not getting included survey research…[the strategist] thinks she’s going to clock [Trump],” he said.

Gerow disagreed.

“Campaigns run on momentum and momentum is running strong for Trump and McCormick. That’s great news for both teams. They look like they can run through the tape at this point,” he said.

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Republican Senate candidate Dave McCormick stopped by a small business in Drexel Hill on Thursday to push back on his opponent’s premise that private companies caused the inflation that has driven up prices about 20 percent since President Joe Biden took office.

And McCormick used former President Donald Trump’s recent stop at a Bucks County McDonald’s to help make his point.

Three-term incumbent U.S. Sen. Bob Casey (D) has joined with the Biden administration to blame rising prices on “greedflation,” corporations somehow colluding to drive up prices rather than compete for market share. Economists have widely panned that premise, noting that if “greedy corporations” had the power drive up prices during the Biden presidency, they could have done the same during the Trump, Obama and Bush administrations. too. Why wait and miss all those millions in profits?

No, McCormick told supporters gathered at Drexel Hill Automotive, it’s “because of the weak leadership in Washington, Pennsylvania families and small businesses in our commonwealth are hurting, particularly over the last three and a half years. And we have Kamala Harris and Bob Casey’s extreme liberal policies to thank.

“Their reckless spending in Washington pushed inflation through the roof. They unleashed trillions of dollars of wasteful federal spending that over stimulated the economy,” said McCormick, an Army veteran and business executive. “They pushed an anti-energy agenda that drove up energy costs. Electricity’s up 35 percent. Fuel’s up 50 percent. And it hurt energy jobs.”

McCormick also called Casey out for joining with progressive U.S. Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) in a letter to McDonald’s CEO CEO Chris Kempczinski, accusing the low-cost, fast-food company of price gouging.

While working families are trying to make ends meet, McDonald’s and its corporate counterparts have continued to grow their profits,” Casey wrote.

“This letter demonstrates a lack of understanding of our franchise business model and contains contortions of facts and many inaccuracies,” the company said in response. “Take the components of the $5 Meal Deal with McChicken, for example, which would have cost 15 percent more in 2020 than they do today. That’s the opposite of price gouging.”

On Thursday, McCormick said he saw politics behind Casey’s complaints.

“This week Bob Casey decided to further twist the knife, basically telling a Pennsylvania McDonald’s franchise that he’s to blame for high prices. It was a vindictive move to score political points, attacking small businesses and employees. This was after President Trump’s visit.

“The very next day, Sen. Casey sent a letter to the CEO of McDonald’s attacking McDonald’s for high prices,” McCormick noted.

Raj Singh owns Drexel Hill Automotive and a family-owned insurance company.

“My business is struggling. Thanks to the sluggish economy, it’s been really tough,” Singh said. “We need some change.

“We tried Bob Casey since 2006 and nothing changed. Dave McCormick, he’s a successful business leader and will fight to lower prices so small businesses like my business can thrive.”

Meaghan Wagner, a lawyer and Upper Darby council member, was also on hand to make the case for McCormick.

“Bob Casey has not stepped foot here in over six years to support any small businesses in Delaware County or Upper Darby,” Wagner said. “He was here once, and that’s for a fundraiser. Where I can tell you David McCormick, just alone this month, has been here in the First District, supporting our small businesses.”

The Casey campaign did not respond to a request for comment.

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Republican Senate candidate Dave McCormick promised to support Israel and fight against rising antisemitism during a town hall with a Jewish group on Sunday, drawing contrasts with incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey Jr.

And he called out Vice President Kamala Harris for a failure of courage in passing over Gov. Josh Shapiro for her running mate, calling it a “tragedy” the Democratic presidential nominee would cave to anti-Israel sentiment in her party.

McCormick made his remarks during a Philadelphia event hosted by Matthew Brooks, CEO of the Republican Jewish Coalition, before about 300 Jewish residents last Sunday.

McCormick said the mass shooting at the Tree of Life synagogue on 2018 and the Hamas terror attack on Israel last year impacted him personally.

“I live in Squirrel Hill in Pittsburgh, literally right around the corner from Tree of Life. So, I’m part of that community.  Every weekend on Sundays, there’s a vigil in Squirrel Hill for the hostages, a weekly reminder so we can’t lose sight of what happened on Oct. 7, and the fact that we still don’t have the Israel hostages, the American hostages, they’re still not home.”

McCormick called Oct. 7 “a huge wake-up call.”

Quoting writer Dan Senor, he said, “When a flare goes up, beware. You can see who are the friends, [and] who are the foes. And Oct. 7 was a flare. It forced people to say who they are, either in their word or their deed.”

McCormick and his wife, Dina, travelled to Israel in January to see “first-hand” what happened during the Hamas terror attack. They visited Kfar Aza, a community of 700 people. The terrorists killed 100 that day, he said.

“Families. Parents killed in front of their kids. Kids killed in front of their parents. Babies burned,” said McCormick. “People decapitated. It’s beyond imagination.”

McCormick and his wife also met with the hostage parents and a “young woman who was wounded at the music festival.” She survived because her friends who were shot dead fell on top of her.

“I came back with a profound sense of the need to stand with Israel in its existential crisis,” said McCormick. “This isn’t a skirmish. The future of Israel is at stake. It’s been attacked from all sides.”

And while President Joe Biden has been reluctant to praise Israel’s recent military actions against Hezbollah and has called for a ceasefire that would benefit the terrorist organization, McCormick — a West Point graduate who served in the 82nd Airborne in Iraq during the Gulf War and was awarded a Bronze Star — had nothing but praise.

“What’s happened in the last couple of weeks has been a brilliant military operation. Make no mistake: What’s happening with Israel is an array of forces underwritten by Iran that is a fight for the very future of Israel’s existence.”

McCormick said as someone who isn’t Jewish, he realized there was antisemitism, but “I was shocked, and I suspect many of you were, by the degree that exists on our nation’s campuses.”

The leadership of universities “unwillingness to stand up for right and wrong, and the hypocrisy of many of our leaders. The willingness to say you’re pro-Israel, pro-Jewish and then capitulate because of the extreme forces in the Democratic Party,” he said. “So this is a battle at home for the heart and soul of our country.”

“For Jews in general, what happens in this election is of the greatest consequence of many we’ve had in modern times,” McCormick added. “You get to decide, now that the flare is up, who you’re for.  And this transcends party, right?”

The group applauded.

Brooks asked him about Harris’ not choosing Pennsylvania’s Gov. Josh Shapiro as her running mate.

“The reality is Josh Shapiro is too Jewish and too pro-Israel to be on today’s Democratic ticket,” said Brooks. “I know you’ve been very critical of your congresswoman, Summer Lee, and the tone-deafness of some, both in the Jewish community and the Democratic Party.”

McCormick said, “I don’t think there’s any doubt that Josh Shapiro is a very formidable person and would have been a very capable pick to be VP. It’s hard to imagine, if you’re in the zone of complete honesty and candor, the fact that him being Jewish would have alienated a certain part of the extreme part of the Democratic Party. It’s hard to imagine, which is such a tragedy for our country, that that kind of calculus would be factored into that choice.

“And such a tragedy that Kamala Harris wouldn’t have the courage to make a selection that would have transcended those considerations.”

McCormick contrasted the actions of Democrat U.S. Sen. John Fetterman and his opponent, Sen. Bob Casey. While Fetterman has been an outspoken defender of Israel and critic of antisemitic campus protests, Casey failed to call for the ouster of former University Penn President Liz Magill after her equivocation on antisemitism during congressional testimony.

Casey has also endorsed U.S. Rep. Summer Lee (D-Pa.). “She is an avowed antisemite,” McCormick said. “And Bob Casey kept his endorsement,” he said.

Casey also supported the 2015 Iran deal that gave “the sponsor of terror throughout the Middle East $100 billion of sanction money,” said McCormick.

After the town hall, Gerri Richmond of Elkins Park said McCormick’s military service and business acumen impressed her. “When I heard him speak, I was inspired that he is the hope for our future in Pennsylvania,” said Richmond.

Retired cantor Elliott Tessler called McCormick a “down-the-line conservative and a likable fellow.”

“He came out as positively as I could have hoped for Israel,” said Tessler.

And Lower Merion resident Jeff Bartos, who ran for governor in 2018 and Senate in 2022, said, “Over the past year, Dave McCormick has led with strength and moral clarity.  Sen. Casey, on the other hand, has all too often been silent and has failed to meet the moment.  Sen. Casey’s weakness, coupled with his disastrously poor judgment in voting for the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, is disqualifying.”

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Incumbent Democrat Bob Casey Jr. may be pitching himself as a moderate in most of the state, but he called in progressive reinforcements in deep-blue Montgomery County.

The three-term U.S. senator hit the campaign trail Friday in Montgomery County with his colleague Sen. Liz Warren (D-Mass.), one of the most outspoken progressives in the Senate, to blame Biden-era inflation on businessowners and promote government price controls as a solution.

Casey, locked in a tight race with businessman Dave McCormick, stood with Warren promising to fight so-called “greedflation,” the theory that businesses are artificially raising prices. It has been widely debunked by economists on the left and right.

Warren told the audience of about 300 people at Temple Ambler that Casey is a “fighter” and a “warrior.”

“At a time when the numbers were clear that giant corporations weren’t just passing along costs because of inflation but were actually gouging on prices, there wasn’t a single Republican who would stand up and call them out. There weren’t many Democrats, but Bob Casey stood up. He called out greedflation,” said Warren.

Warren later claimed that if Republicans win in November, “They are going to help the rich get richer, and everyone else can eat dirt.”

Casey has emerged as a leading proponent of the “greedflation” argument, which has also been made by President Joe Biden and his Vice President — the Democratic nominee for president — Kamala Harris. Harris has proposed federal price controls to fight inflation, placing the blame squarely on business owners for soaring inflation during Biden’s presidency.

On Friday, Casey claimed that from July 2020 to July 2022, corporate profits rose 75 percent. Which is “five times the rate of inflation…We have to pass price-gouging legislation to hold those companies accountable.”

He noted 37 state attorneys general can hold corporate price gougers accountable. He wants the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) to have the same power to rein in larger national corporations.

“It’s when greed governs the decisions of major corporations,” he said. “We’re talking about the biggest conglomerates in the world that are jacking up prices with impunity, and we’re  not going to take it anymore.”

Economists, including former Clinton and Obama administration officials, have dismissed that as a conspiracy theory and say inflation is the result of monetary policy, not corporate greed.

“If greedy businesspeople were responsible for price increases, then slowing inflation would mean they are becoming less greedy,” Phillip S. Coles of Lehigh University’s College of Business recently wrote for The Wall Street Journal. “But while producers often think they can set prices, they rarely can. It isn’t because they aren’t greedy—they always try to change prices. It’s because they can charge only what the market will bear. It takes two opposing sides to make a deal, and consumers always look for a bargain.”

But progressives like Harris and Warren continue to promote the “greedflation” argument and shrug off the inflation of the Biden years which, at one point, hit 9.2 percent.

“We’ve seen low inflation and frankly relatively modest increases in inflation,” Warren said Friday. “Then the pandemic hits, and, yeah, prices go up.

“Here’s the deal. The big corporations are the ones that have market dominance in their area nationally. They looked over and said, ‘Hmm, inflation. Everybody’s talking about prices going up…Instead of just passing along those price increases, which would have been modest, they said, this is our big chance. We can jerk our prices even higher. And raise our overall profits,” Warren said.

“We’re giving the FTC, the federal government, the power to go after the big guys and fight on your behalf,” she added.

McCormick has been fighting back against the “greedflation” campaign by attacking “Bobflation,” pointing to the trillions dollars in new spending under Biden as the culprit behind inflation. He’s even got a website dedicated to it.

“Democrats Bob Casey and Kamala Harris recklessly spent your taxpayer dollars, which has sent the cost of Pennsylvania’s most iconic products and experiences skyrocketing,” according to the website.

Asked by a reporter if the government stimulus money was a factor in causing inflation, Warren said the stimulus money kept services like firefighting and schools going after the pandemic. Casey agreed, saying the American Rescue Plan saved jobs.

Casey also called McCormick “a bagman for billionaires.”

Asked about Charleroi, a western Pennsylvania borough that former President Donald Trump mentioned for its problems with immigrants, Casey blamed a company moving steelworker jobs “to the detriment of that community.”

Asked by DVJournal about millions of unvetted illegal immigrants pouring over the border under the Harris-Biden administration that McCormick says is a security issue, Casey said he’s voted at least 25 times for border security bills. He accused Republicans of killing the last border bill at the behest of Trump.

“We have to hire more border patrol (officers),” said Casey. “We should be hiring thousands more. We should invest in screening technology to detect fentanyl at the border…Mostly in vehicles driven by American citizens. That’s the reality of fentanyl.

“At the same time I’ve been fighting those battles, my opponent has been on Wall Street,” said Casey. “He’s been running a hedge fund, making a lot of money from China, investing in China’s military. He even invested in a company that produced 90 percent of the fentanyl in China.

“Because he takes his orders from Donald Trump, he refused to support the legislation I’ve already voted for twice, which would provide thousands more for border patrol, [and] give us those investments in the screening for fentanyl. This is legislation that was the most bipartisan, toughest border bill ever. And guess what? The border patrol supports it. And the border patrol, I don’t think, has endorsed me.

“My opponent doesn’t support it. He backed away from it. He doesn’t have the guts to stand up to Donald Trump on supporting bipartisan border security that I think would be the toughest border bill in 25 years,” said Casey.

Blair County Sheriff Jim Ott lost his son, Josh, to a fentanyl overdose and made an ad to support McCormick. Ott said, “If the border was secure, chances are my son would be alive today. We can’t bring back the people we’ve lost. But we can get rid of the weak politicians like Bob Casey who let it happen.”

McCormick promised to work on the border and fentanyl problem “on day one.”

“We lost 4,000 Pennsylvanians to fentanyl last year, and we’ll lose 4,000 or more again this year if something doesn’t change. My heart goes out to the Otts and every family impacted by this tragic epidemic,” said McCormick.

Casey, 64, whose father was a popular governor, served as state treasurer and auditor general before he was elected to the Senate in 2006.

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