DV Journal

Pennsylvania Republicans got a double dose of good news Monday, and it suggests a good year ahead for the GOP.

For U.S. Senate candidate Dave McCormick, the headline is his blowout fundraising in the fourth quarter of 2023, $6.4 million. That’s more money than the incumbent Democrat he’s challenging, Sen. Bob Casey, has ever raised in a single quarter.

For former President Donald Trump, the good news is a poll from the left-leaning group Future Majority showing him leading President Joe Biden in Biden’s native Pennsylvania by six points, 46-40 percent. Trump already has a slim one-point advantage in the RealClearPolitics average of polls. With the new Future Majority poll, Trump beat Biden in four of the five most recent polls in Pennsylvania.

It’s part of a consistent trend showing Trump leading Biden in Pennsylvania and six other swing states that are likely to determine the outcome of the 2024 presidential race. And it’s good news for Keystone State Republican candidates like McCormick, who will benefit from having a strong performance at the top of the GOP ticket.

Not that McCormick isn’t helping himself.

McCormick raised $5.4 million from over 15,000 individual donors and put in an additional $1 million of his own in his first quarter as a 2024 Senate candidate, making for a groundbreaking haul, his campaign said in a press release. McCormick’s number beats any of Bob Casey’s fundraising quarters in 18 years and is among the largest first quarters ever for a Republican challenger.

“Dave McCormick has earned the support of Pennsylvanians from all walks of life because they believe he is the kind of leader who can address the burden of inflation on working families, push for a secure border, and protect the security of Americans at home and abroad. A seventh-generation Pennsylvanian, West Point graduate, and Pennsylvania job creator, Dave is exactly the kind of candidate who can beat Bob Casey in November, shake up Washington, and get this country back on track from the failed policies of Joe Biden,” said McCormick campaign manager Matt Gruda.

The Casey campaign raised $3.2 million for the third quarter of 2024.

“I’m no stranger to a tough race. I’ve always fought for PA, and I won’t stop now. We’re up against a wall of money, so I’m looking for 10,000 supporters to help us start 2024 off strong,” Casey posted on social media.

In addition to his fundraising success, McCormick just completed a trip to Israel to highlight his strong foreign policy resume and raise questions about Casey’s commitment to the Jewish state.

Delaware Valley supporters of McCormick like what they’re seeing from the candidate.

“Dave McCormick is running an excellent campaign so far,” Radnor businessman Austin Hepburn told DVJournal. “His fundraising is impressive. It’s going to be an expensive race.”

Democrats are already looking at a difficult U.S. Senate map as they attempt to hold their 51-49 majority. West Virginia is almost certain to flip to the GOP now that Sen. Joe Manchin has announced he’s not seeking reelection. Democratic incumbents in two other states that Trump carried easily in 2020 — Ohio and Montana — are up for reelection in November, too. If Democrats can’t hold Pennsylvania, they are assured of losing control of the Senate.

And if Biden can’t pick up his poll numbers here, it’s going to be tough for Casey to hold off McCormick.

Perhaps in an effort to shore up his support in Pennsylvania, Biden kicked off his 2024 campaign in Montgomery County on Friday with a speech attacking Trump. Biden went after Trump over his role in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol, claimed Trump would become a dictator if elected again, and compared Trump’s rhetoric to that of Hitler.

While going negative against Trump, Biden did not tout his own record. All of which has the GOP feeling optimistic.

“From calling out Biden’s ‘erosion’ of support, to bluntly saying his ‘numbers are bad,’ to already being desperate for a ‘rebound,’ the Pennsylvania press corps are calling in dire news for Joe Biden,” said Republican National Committee spokesperson Rachel Lee. “Democrats’ prospects in Pennsylvania are bleak, and in 300 short days, Joe Biden and Bob Casey will be reading the worst headlines of their careers yet: Democrats’ defeat.”

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Despite a poor showing in statewide judicial races in 2023, Pennsylvania Republicans are bullish for 2024.

It’s a presidential election year and so far former President Trump is leading in the polls for the primary so barring an unforeseen event, the general election will likely be a rematch of Trump against President Biden.

“I think in Pennsylvania, the Republicans will do very, very well,” said  Republican consultant Charlie Gerow, CEO of Quantum Communications. “And as Pennsylvania goes, so goes the nation.”

Asked about the losses in 2023, Gerow said, “2023 was an ‘off-year election’ with a very different electorate than the folks who will show up at the polls next year.”

More people come out and vote in presidential election years.

“You’re going to have three times the number of voters participating in 2024 as you had in 2023,” said Gerow.

Scott Presler, a Republican voter registration activist who has been focusing on registering Pennsylvania voters this year, including spending three days in December at a recent gun show in Oaks, is also bullish.

“I feel more confident today about Republicans winning the presidency in 2024, than I did a year ago,” said Presler.

He points with pride to the recent “flip” of Beaver County from Democrat to Republican and believes Bucks County may be next. Luzerne and Centre counties are also on the cusp of flipping from blue to red.

In the first two weeks in December, the Democrats lost 2,165 voters while Republicans gained 3,530 voters.

“Republicans had a net gain of 5,695 voters in 14 days,” said Presler, who was also recently in Philadelphia teaching local Republicans how to register voters.

“This is monumental when you think of Joe Biden winning Pennsylvania in 2020 by 80,000 votes,” said Presler. “So I think 2024 is going to be a great year. I think Pennsylvania is winnable and anecdotally from what I’ve experienced the last three days at the gun show, granted it’s a gun show. These are Second Amendment voters.”

“Republican momentum is on the rise, with another Pennsylvania county flipping from blue to red just this week. The RNC is continuing to register Republican voters and encouraging them to ‘bank’ their vote for Republicans up and down the ballot in 2024, as Pennsylvanians stand ready to Beat Biden and retire Bob Casey once and for all!” said RNC Spokesperson Rachel Lee.

In November of 2021, Pennsylvania Democrats had 605,188 more voters than Republicans.   Republicans have reduced Democrats’ advantage by over 161,000 voters in the last two years.

In 2023, some 50,000 Democrats and Independents have re-registered as Republicans in Pennsylvania.

The RNC is also pushing mail-in ballots in a Bank Your Vote campaign, to cut into the Democrats’ lead in that arena.

“People are hungry for change. One woman who was born in 1965 never registered to vote her entire life. She registered for the first time with me as a Republican,” said Presler.

“What I’m hearing from people is the theme, what they’re saying to me is, ‘The world is in chaos. The world is upside down and it’s time for a change.’ That’s what I’m hearing over and over again,” said Presler.

Many DelVal voters still abhor Trump and will likely never vote for him.

“Well, in other parts of the state, they are,” said Gerow.

“And, as you know, Donald Trump won here in Pennsylvania in 2016, and lost narrowly in 2020. So he’s got a very clear path to win again in 2024,” said Gerow. “And I believe he will.”

Asked about abortion, which Democrats have been successfully using as a wedge issue, including to attack Judge Carolyn Carluccio, the Republican who ran for the Supreme Court, Gerow believes that issue will fade.

“I don’t think it’s going to be as big as some of our Democratic friends will like it to be,” said Gerow. “I think the economy is going to be the dominant issue next year and the devastation of Bidenomics is going to reflect in the results.”

The other marquee race will be three-term incumbent Sen. Bob Casey who is being challenged by Dave McCormick, a Gulf War veteran, a successful businessman who also served in the Bush administration.

Gerow said, “Dave McCormick’s entire life is action packed. He gets things done. His record of accomplishment in the private sector far exceeds Bob Casey’s 34 years in politics. People are increasingly asking, ‘What has Bob Casey actually done?’ They don’t ask that about Dave McCormick.”

“I think it always boils down to personalities,” said Gerow.

He also pointed to Philadelphia state Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta, who the state Democratic Party endorsed for auditor general, over two other candidates.

“He’s a Marxist for crying out loud,” said Gerow. “That’s where the Democratic Party is right now. It’s identity politics. He’s African American. He’s gay. He checks all the boxes. That’s what they’re looking for, not competency. That guy’s got no business running for auditor general.”

In contrast, incumbent Timothy DeFoor, who is also African American, has a strong background in auditing and accounting.

In addition to the economy, Presler said people are concerned with rising crime. He is convincing Philadelphians to either register Republican as first-time voters or to switch parties based on rising crime.

“I’m getting formerly incarcerated people,” he said. “Business owners. They’ve changed their lives and they’re going ‘Oh my gosh, the taxes are incredible. Inflation is incredible. Crime is rising. The streets aren’t being cleaned.”

“Unlike 2020 or 2016, you’re going to see millions of people who have never been part of the process coming out to vote,” said Presler.

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A new Franklin & Marshall Poll released Thursday found a jaw-dropping 84 percent of Pennsylvania voters think President Joe Biden, once called a “scrappy kid from Scranton,” is too old for a second term. That compared to 47 percent who said the same about Donald Trump.

“Most of those people are Democrats, actually, who say that Biden is too old,” said Berwood Yost, Director of the Franklin & Marshall Poll, to DVJournal. “Republicans say, ‘Yeah, Biden’s too old.’ Democrats are more likely to say they’re both too old.”

The age issue has plagued Biden, who turns 81 next month, all year. A Delaware Valley Journal/Coefficient poll in July found that 48 percent of suburban voters didn’t believe he was mentally or physically fit to face a crisis as president.

Some Pennsylvania Democrats, however, said they believe Trump’s problematic politics will more than make up for doubts about Biden’s abilities.

“It’s an issue – plain and simple,” said T.J. Rooney, a Democratic strategist. “However, Trump still has a stranglehold on the Republican Party. As long as that remains the case, Republicans will continue to lose elections – from the state house to the White House.”

The poll results should still be disturbing for Democrats wanting to keep their “Blue Wall” of Midwestern and blue-collar states intact. Biden leads Trump 44 to 42, despite the latter’s indictment on multiple charges in federal and state courts. It is worth noting that an early October survey from Emerson College Polling gave Trump a nine-point lead over Biden.

Also troublesome for Democrats is that Biden’s favorability rating within their party was at 57 percent. That is well below the 78 percent favorability the president enjoys nationally among Democrats.

Biden’s overall favorability rating is no better. Fifty-eight percent of the surveyed 873 registered voters had a negative opinion. Only 40 percent gave him a favorable rating.

“I think it’s clear that these concerns about the economy are really dragging on the president and how they feel about him,” said Yost. Biden’s current rating is lower than Trump’s and former President Barack Obama’s ratings in Pennsylvania at the same point in their first term. “You look at the numbers, and you just see that there’s not a terrible amount of enthusiasm at this point for his candidacy.”

For comparison, Trump has a similar 58 percent unfavorable rating but a 41 percent favorable – one percent higher than Biden.

The high unfavorable ratings may not stop people from picking Biden or Trump.

“No one’s running against Biden, and then Trump obviously has such a grip on the GOP base that it doesn’t matter what he really does,” Larry Ceisler of Ceisler Media & Issue Advocacy told DVJournal. He believes the country is craving for different candidates but is resigned to Biden-Trump II. “People are expressing their hopes for what they wish it could be.”

Trump dominates the Republican field. He scored 55 percent support in the Republican Primary field, with Ron DeSantis far behind at 14 percent. The Florida governor has seen the floor drop since April 2023, when he was only six points behind Trump. In third place was former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley with nine percent.

Head-to-head, those surveyed think Biden was more trustworthy and had better judgment. He also ranked higher on values issues like abortion and gay marriage. Biden led Trump 42-41 percent on who understands ordinary Americans.

Trump scored higher on the economy (49-38) and as commander in chief of the military (47-39).

Democrats like Rooney aren’t publicly sweating Biden’s low number against Trump. “Lots of road for Trump to cover in court before next November.”

Unlike Biden, things for Democrat Gov. Josh Shapiro appear to be going all right. The poll found 49 percent believed Shapiro was doing an “excellent” or “good” job as the state’s top elected official. The only Pennsylvania governor to have a higher rating 10 months into his term was Tom Ridge.

Yost saw it as Shapiro’s style of governance. “He’s implemented some policies that are things that Republicans might support. He’s been supportive of school choice. I think he’s a moderate leader that communicates things well.”

Shapiro is unsurprisingly doing well with Democrats, generating 76 percent support. But it was a different story with independents and Republicans. The governor garnered 25 percent approval from the GOP and only 38 percent from independent voters. It was still enough to get him an overall 57 percent favorable rating.

There are still problems for Shapiro and the state legislature. The Franklin & Marshall College Poll revealed 50 percent of respondents felt they are “worse off” compared to 2022, and 35 percent thought they will be financially worse off from last year. And voters were worried about the state of Pennsylvania, with 55 percent saying it was “on the wrong track.”

“I think that’s a blanket issue,” commented Shapiro. “Certainly, the state legislature has had its share of issues. Particularly the House being able to organize itself early in the term. There’s still some spending bills left to finish in the state.”

He added national issues like inflation are likely why people seem pessimistic about their situation.

The poll also found incumbent Democrat Sen. Bob Casey holds a seven-point lead over likely GOP challenger Dave McCormick.

That has Ceisler believing that things will be fine for Democrats in 2024. “I don’t see a scenario where Bob Casey wins reelection and Joe Biden loses the state. [Democrats are] sending a message to Joe Biden, but, at the end of the day, they’re going to vote for him.”