DV Journal

While Republicans now outnumber Democrats in Bucks County, it remains a competitive political environment.  A recent poll showed that incumbent U.S. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Bucks) has a 14-point lead over Democratic challenger Ashley Ehasz, at 54 to 40 percent. However, Ehasz released another poll showing only a 5-point lead for the incumbent.

DVJournal asked Fitzpatrick, who was first elected in 2016, why he wanted to serve another term in Congress.

“Serving the community where I was born and raised has been the greatest honor of my life and I am proud of all that we achieved together as ‘One Community.’ Earning the distinction of being the No. 1 most bipartisan member of Congress is not just a title—it’s a testament to my belief that true progress comes from unity and shared purpose, not partisan division.

“My experience as an FBI Special Agent taught me the value of teamwork in achieving what truly matters: results. This approach has been the bedrock of my service in Congress, where I’ve forged crucial partnerships with leaders from both parties to drive transformative change for our PA-1 community.”

Ehasz, who is making a second run against Fitzpatrick, did not respond to multiple requests for comments for this article. However, her campaign appears to be centered on abortion rights.

Ashley Ehasz

“Many Democratic races this year, up and down the ballot, are focusing nearly exclusively on that particular issue, abortion. And Ehasz’ is no exception,” said Christopher Nicholas, a longtime Republican advisor with Eagle Consulting Group.  “The issue clearly motivates the Democratic base, but it’s unclear as of yet how it impacts undecided voters. Recent surveys here have shown that abortion is the top issue for just 5 percent of voters, and it’s unclear from that which particular side of the issue those people fall on.”

About abortion, Fitzpatrick said, “I have always stood, and will continue to stand, firmly in support of Pennsylvania’s current law, which allows abortion to be legal through the first 24 weeks of pregnancy. My commitment to protecting women’s health remains unwavering, including safeguarding access to contraception and IVF. My position has been consistent and clear, including during last [election cycle] debate: I fully support Pennsylvania’s abortion law.”

Fitzpatrick serves on the Ways and Means Committee and House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence. In addition, he co-chairs the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus, Congressional Ukraine Caucus, and Bipartisan Mental Health and Substance Use Disorder Task Force. He also serves on the NATO Parliamentary Assembly.

“Whether fighting to secure millions of dollars in funding for vital community initiatives, leading the historic reauthorization of the Violence Against Women Act, or utilizing my leadership as the National Intelligence Chairman to secure our borders and stand firm against authoritarian regimes, every action I take—locally, nationally, and internationally—is driven by a singular focus: fighting for you… for your safety, for a thriving PA-1 economy, and for the prosperity, security, and strength that will uplift our community now and for generations to come,” Fitzpatrick said.

He added, “We stand at a pivotal moment in our history, and the path forward demands sound bipartisan leadership and a particular understanding of the unique challenges and opportunities facing our community. I have proven we can turn thoughtful dialogue into meaningful action and achieve results for our hardworking families, business owners, veterans, senior citizens, and every individual in our PA-1 community.

“But I am not content with past achievements alone. My vision is forward-looking—building on what we’ve accomplished to tackle the challenges ahead with the same unwavering dedication, conviction, and integrity that have always defined my service,” Fitzpatrick said.

Fitzpatrick said, “Championing our PA-1 community is my top priority. By forging strong, bipartisan relationships, I have been able to secure over $53 million in Community Project Funding for over 30 projects across our district. From modernizing infrastructure to expanding health care services and senior care, these transformative projects will deliver life-changing improvements to our community.

“As co-chair of the Bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus, I helped lead the passage of the historic Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, which brought $290 million to our district. These critical infrastructure projects include 27 bridge reconstructions, 19 intersection upgrades, 8 roadway construction projects, and major flooding and drainage improvements. These projects have not only strengthened our infrastructure but also created thousands of jobs, boosting our local economy and enhancing the safety of our community,” he added.

“Beyond securing critical community funding, this Congress marked two other monumental victories. My bipartisan, bicameral Saracini Enhanced Aviation Safety Act was signed into law as part of the landmark FAA Reauthorization Act of 2024, ensuring our skies are safe and fortifying our defenses against potential terror attacks. Additionally, my work with Congressman Jared Golden (D-Maine) on the bipartisanDefending Borders, Defending Democracies Ac thelped shape the House National Security Funding Package to protect our borders and combat authoritarian regimes abroad, like Russia and China.

“As I look ahead, my focus remains clear: continuing to fight for the issues that matter most to PA-1. I look forward to fighting for more federal investment in local initiatives and infrastructure, support for our small businesses, and policies that bolster our economy, expand access to healthcare, strengthen our national security, restore faith in our elections, and ensure every voice in our community is heard.”

DVJournal asked about rampant antisemitism on campuses and whether money from countries like Qatar should be going to colleges and universities.

“I unequivocally condemn antisemitism and all manifestations of hatred, whether on college campuses or anywhere within our country and the world. Transparency and accountability are paramount when addressing the influence of foreign funds on any U.S. institution, from higher education to our critical infrastructure or the core of our democracy. That’s why I introduced the Stop Foreign Funds in Elections Act. This legislation will prevent the influence of foreign adversaries in our elections by blocking foreign-funded political ads and prohibiting foreign donations to campaigns.

“As co-chair of the Bipartisan Task Force for Combating Antisemitism, I will continue to be relentless in fighting back against antisemitism on every front and safeguarding the well-being of our Jewish community, and I am eager to continue working with my colleagues to develop bipartisan solutions to counter malign foreign influence in all our institutions,” Fitzpatrick said.

Fitzpatrick is a former FBI special agent, a CPA, and a certified emergency medical technician (EMT).  A West Point graduate, Ehasz was an Apache helicopter pilot. She served overseas in Kuwait, Iraq, and South Korea. She works as a government and public services sector consultant.

Bucks County Republican Party Chair Pat Poprik said, “Brian does have the right positions for this county.”

Fitzpatrick has been ranked the most bipartisan member of Congress, which makes him a good match for the purple county, she noted. The district, PA-1, also includes a small section of Montgomery County.

“In the general, where it matters, he gets the independent vote. He gets tons of Democrat votes. That’s being representative, and that’s doing his job,” said Poprik.

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GOP U.S. Senate candidate Dave McCormick is campaigning hard on the fact that his opponent, U.S. Sen. Bob Casey, supports another term for President Joe Biden.

While Casey’s position isn’t popular — a huge majority of Keystone State voters believe Biden is too old — it appeared the three-term Democrat might get a reprieve. Prominent Democrats like former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi have been working behind the scenes to push Biden out, which would let Casey off the hook.

A chorus of  Democrats and donors have called for Biden to bow out of the presidential race, fearing a Trump victory. Vermont Sen. Peter Welch was the first senator to ask Biden to withdraw for the “good of the country.” At least 20 House Democrats have called for Biden to drop out of the 2024 race.

That all changed Saturday when an assassin’s bullet narrowly missed former President Donald Trump. The Republican nominee survived, but it appears any hopes of getting Biden off the ticket didn’t.

“Everything is on pause for the moment given the gravity of the moment in time we’re in,” said Jeff Jubelirer, vice president with Bellevue Communications. “I haven’t heard any new Democrats saying anything about Biden since Saturday. It seems like this will remain on pause for at least the short term. However, I don’t know if this will change the overall calculus that many Democrats want Biden to drop out for a new candidate. I suspect the grave attack won’t change their positions.”

Jubelirer is right regarding the political math. A New York Times/Siena College poll released Monday found Biden losing Pennsylvania to Trump 48 to 45 percent. Worse, campaign professionals say, is the fact that around 60 percent of Keystone State Democrats say Biden it too old. And Democrats are split on keeping Biden on the ticket, with 48 percent sticking with Biden and 46 percent wanting him gone.

But Democrats like Casey and his colleague, Sen. John Fetterman, are backing Biden. “I refuse to join the Democratic vultures on Biden’s shoulder after the debate. No one knows more than me that a rough debate is not the sum total of the person and their record,” Fetterman said.

And it appears the national party is falling in line, too. Former Democratic National Committee chair Donna Brazile told The New York Times that after Biden’s debate fiasco, “it’s been hysteria on steroids. But now Biden’s not going anywhere.

“If he is not going to buckle under the weight of what has happened over the last two and a half weeks, I don’t know why anyone else should,” she said.

Republicans are delighted. They see Biden as a weak candidate, and Casey’s embrace of a candidate most voters believe is clearly unfit to serve.

McCormick has billboards around Pennsylvania that say “Same Old, Tired Ideas” with pictures of Casey and Biden. They went up last week in Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Scranton, and Bloomsburg. Casey and Biden are both from Scranton, while McCormick grew up in Bloomsburg.

McCormick’s campaign launched a digital ad after the June 27 debate titled “Bob Casey Knew,” a reference to the fact that, due to his relationship with Biden and the White House, Casey had to be aware of Biden’s declining cognitive skills.

“There’s nobody in the Senate closer to Joe Biden than Bob Casey,” McCormick told DVJournal. “As a veteran, I’m worried about Biden’s ability to keep our troops safe. How can Casey, one of Biden’s closest friends in Washington, continue to ignore what’s at risk with a weak commander-in-chief? The commonwealth deserves better than their failed leadership and tired, old ideas.”

Why won’t Casey, caught in a tough re-election campaign in a state Biden is losing, cut the president loose?

“The relationship that Sen. Casey and the president enjoy transcends politics,” says longtime Democratic strategist TJ Rooney. “The president has enjoyed exceptionally close relationships with both Sen. Casey and Gov. Casey [Sen. Casey’s father]. Bob Casey is a faithful servant who believes his word is his bond. I don’t see his support for President Biden changing anytime soon.”

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Republican Dave McCormick, a successful businessman running against Sen. Bob Casey Jr., called out the three-term senator for his votes on illegal immigration.

“Last night, while most were asleep, Bob Casey voted to allow Pennsylvania’s taxpayer dollars to fund illegal aliens’ flights into our country. This disaster is leading to the fentanyl deaths of 4,000 Pennsylvanians a year. A failure of leadership of disastrous proportions,” McCormick posted to social media after Casey voted for the $1.2 trillion omnibus spending bill.

Pennsylvania has been the destination for “ghost flights,” bringing hundreds of illegal immigrants here, often in the dead of night. And President Joe Biden’s policy of flying “paroled” illegals from Venezuela and Haiti into the U.S. is also under fire.

Casey also voted against the Laken Riley Act amendment to that spending bill. Riley, a young Georgia college student, was brutally killed while out on a run across campus, allegedly by an illegal immigrant. The bill would require that any illegal immigrant who committed burglary, larceny, shoplifting, or theft be detained.

McCormick also criticized his Democratic opponent for that vote.

“Laken Riley would still be alive if Jose Ibarra — an illegal immigrant — was deported after breaking our laws in the first place. Bob Casey just voted against making it easier to deport criminals like Ibarra. PA needs a senator who will fight evil, not enable it,” McCormick posted to X.

In September, Danelo Cavalcante, an illegal immigrant who escaped from the Chester County prison, kept police, state police and the U.S. Border Patrol busy as he evaded capture for 14 days. Cavalcante had been convicted of murder for the stabbing death of his girlfriend in August and was awaiting sentencing when he crab-walked between two walls to a roof and fled the jail. The manhunt led to fear and inconvenience for Delaware Valley residents, especially after he stole a rifle.

Casey also voted to give undocumented immigrants federal benefits, opposed border security measures, and voted to keep counting illegal immigrants in the U.S. Census.

He voted three times to keep giving federal money to sanctuary cities and opposed an executive order from former President Donald Trump to rein in sanctuary cities. Sanctuary cities, including Philadelphia, don’t cooperate with Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). Casey also voted against Kate’s Law, which would have set mandatory minimums for deported felons who reenter the U.S. illegally.

Some illegal immigrants who’ve been flooding across the southern border are believed to be drug mules, bringing deadly fentanyl and other drugs into the U.S. The number of overdose deaths in Pennsylvania grew by 19.5 percent from 2019 (4,479) to 2021 (5,356). And 78.4 percent of all overdose deaths in Pennsylvania involved fentanyl in 2022.

The Casey campaign did not respond to requests for comment. However, a Casey spokesperson told another news outlet he opposes sanctuary  cities.  

But a new Cygnal poll commissioned by the Republican State Leadership Committee showed Pennsylvania voters are most concerned about inflation (32 percent) and immigration/border security (28 percent). The poll was taken March 10 through 12.

National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesman Philip Letsou said, “Just one month after Laken Riley was murdered, Bob Casey voted to allow illegal immigrants to be released into the country, fund flights for illegals throughout the country, and continue funding sanctuary cities. Casey refuses to stand up to his party, and the Democrats’ radical agenda is making our country less safe.”

“Putting every Pennsylvanian at risk, Bob Casey is in lockstep with Joe Biden’s deadly, pro-criminal agenda. Casey has recklessly prioritized sanctuary cities and illegal immigrants over the safety of Keystone State families, who will reject his failures and vote Republican this November,” added Rachel Lee, Republican National Committee spokesperson.

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I just put the Stars and Stripes back up outside my house. Though hard winds have kept blowing it down, I put it up again. Having it regularly knocked down has me reflecting on what it means in 2024 to be American. 

It means the same thing it did for my grandparents — being grateful for this life, liberty and working to follow the better angels of my nature each day.

In 2024, though, the noisiest winds are coming from two old men who desperately want to be president, again. These two are the antithesis of what those at my house dream of for America and what my grandparents dreamed of for me.

Why are we here? There has been a great unraveling of everyday virtue and community. Blame the usual suspects — broken families, addiction, isolation, apathy, plain old selfishness — call it what you will.

And there are those who want to advance the notion that is America in our totality. They’re wrong.

Federal leadership has been outmatched by the challenges of today. It’s unclear if “We the People” truly are. We fail. It’s part of the human condition. I think, today, American neighbors seem less tolerant of each other’s flaws and weaknesses.

Maybe because they make us see our own?

The cost of the illusion of having the world on our own personal digital string may allow less room for our very real, often troubled neighbor. But virtue abides anyway.

I recently maxed out my debit card buying inexpensive hummingbird feeders. I had $9. It cost $9.25. The shabby-dressed woman next to me offered up a quarter. She could have put it to good use for herself. But she didn’t. No words were exchanged except for my thanks.

A beacon of hope is the little girl who ran to me for a hug in church, though we were strangers. It is the other shopper who extended her purse when mine was empty. It is the driver on the highway who let me merge into traffic when no one else would.

For one moment they showed me what is truly great about America. If there is anything great about America, it’s those shoots of virtue that spring up every day from a weary and worried populace.

We are good people, but we’ve been listening to leaders who are often telling us what we want to hear rather than the way things are. Exploitation is not representation. It is often the first step to tyranny.

Will I be able to write to you freely in four years, or will my words be suppressed as an enemy of the state? 

It is a revolting thought to me. Encyclopedia Britannica online describes us in the early times this way: “They all believed in democracy in the sense of a rough equality of opportunity and (after John Locke) the possession by every man of the basic human rights of life, liberty and property. During the 18th century, barriers between the colonies were steadily reduced…The newspapers and pamphlets of one province were read widely in others.”

Some of us have changed. Some people are haters now. Others are exploited, helpless, scared, or don’t see that the problems of America are their problems too. We believe in life, liberty and prosperity, but we don’t agree on when life begins, where personal freedom diverges into civic neglect. And many rent property while fewer of us own it.

The answer starts with Ben Franklin. “Doubt a little your own infallibility,” he told the creators of the Constitution. If he were here, he might advise us to respect each other, your ancestors bled together for all of us. Show respect to their grandchildren. Remember, together we are stronger than we are divided.

But the answer ends with us. Step up now, or the republic as we know it may be lost to history.

Tomorrow will be a new day. What do you want it to be as a free person? Will you offer a hug, an uncinched purse string, a call to Congress, or an uplifting word? No MAGA hats or gender pronouns are required for my tomorrow — just kindness and action.

So, the flag flies here at my house, day and night. It doesn’t fly for Trump’s meanness. It doesn’t fly for Biden’s unwillingness to confront evil. It flies for you. It flies for me. It flies for the better angels in all of us.

That flag outside is only an idea. It’s always up to us together whether it will be a light in the darkness or a piece of gaudy aging fabric.

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With former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden clinching their respective party’s presidential nominations, what will the repeat race mean to the Delaware Valley?

How will it affect other races, including the marquee U.S. Senate race between Democratic incumbent Sen. Bob Casey and Republican Dave McCormick? And down-ballot contests?

Bucks County is seeing gains in Republican voter registration, while the other counties—Delaware, Chester, and Montgomery—are trending Democratic.

In February 2022, Democrats had an advantage of 9,289 voter registrations in Bucks County. Today, that lead has been narrowed to 2,145, said Scott Presler, a voter registration activist.

“In a quintessential swing county, like Bucks, this is huge news,” said Presler. “My organization, Early Vote Action, has volunteers from across the country writing letters into Bucks to continue this voter registration trend to the right. We’re also focused on Centre and Luzerne counties.”

Bucks County GOP Chair Pat Poprik said, “After four years of President Biden and the Democrats’ failed policies, voters have had enough of high gas prices, the rising cost of living, and a border crisis that’s worsening by the day.

“We have seen it on the ground, and the positive trend in voter registration towards the Republican Party in Bucks County demonstrates the grassroots energy building for a much-needed change in our country’s direction. Republican voters are energized. Independents and even some Democrats are also seeing that the state of the country was better under President Trump. In every sense, on the issues that matter most to working families, the Biden administration has simply been a failure.”

Temple University political science Professor Robin Kolodny believes the Senate race will be a significant factor in the presidential race in Pennsylvania.

“In 2024, we will have both a closely contested presidential race and a U.S. Senate race,” Kolodny said. “The Senate race is key to determining which party controls the chamber. Demographic trends suggest Democrats will have a slight advantage statewide and probably a bit more in the Delaware Valley. President Biden praised Sen. Casey’s bill in his State of the Union Address. I think the Biden-Casey campaigns will probably work together a bit more easily than the McCormick-Trump campaigns, but it’s too early to know for sure.”

A new Emerson College/The Hill poll shows Trump is leading among Pennsylvania voters by 47 percent, with Biden at 43 percent. However, 10 percent are undecided. When voters were asked which candidate they leaned toward, Trump’s support increased to 52 percent and Biden’s to 48 percent.

The same poll shows Casey at 45 percent, McCormick at 41 percent, and 14 percent undecided.

Former Chester Chamber president and Commonwealth Foundation Senior Fellow Guy Ciarrocchi noted, “The State of the Union address changed nothing. The battle for Pennsylvania will be very close: We saw it in 2016 and 2020–less than 2 percent. Any slight movement could tip the balance—and the presidency. The priorities of suburban voters will help pick the winner—and we likely won’t know until this fall, with their last mood swing.”

In 2016, when Trump beat Hillary Clinton narrowly winning Pennsylvania, Bucks County voted for Clinton 48.52 percent and Trump 47.74 percent. In Chester County, Clinton received 52.71 percent, and Trump got 43.20 percent. In Delaware County, Clinton scored 59.6 percent, and Trump eked out 37.18 percent. Clinton earned 58.91 percent in Montgomery County, while Trump had 37.44 percent of the vote.

In 2020, when Biden bested Trump, Bucks County voted for Biden at 51.66 percent and Trump at 40.88 percent. Chester County had Biden at 57.99 percent and Trump at 40.88 percent. In Delaware County, 62.95 percent voted for Biden, while  36.15 percent voted for Trump. Biden garnered 62.6 percent in Montgomery County, compared to Trump’s 47.29 percent.

Colleen Guiney, Delaware County Democratic Committee chair, praised Biden’s State of the Union speech and said she believes area voters will stick with the president.

“We have a choice between ‘Honesty, decency, dignity, (and) equality.’ or ‘resentment, revenge, and retribution.’ I am confident that Delaware County will choose the former,” Guiney said.

Frank Agovino, the Delaware County Republican chairman, said, “In my mind, the 2024 rematch of Biden vs. Trump will be more beneficial for Republicans in Delco. The combination of a nostalgic feeling of the strong Trump economy and a world not at war versus the Biden administration that has made us weaker through an agenda of mixed-up priorities at home and abroad will result in a record turnout.

“Additionally, elevated crime and the rising cost of everyday necessities such as food and gas have hit everyone hard, but most especially the largely African American communities such as Upper Darby and Darby Townships. It feels like there is real buyers’ remorse, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Trump pull 25 percent in these areas, which would be a stark improvement from 2016.”

And Chester County Democrat Committee Chair Charlotte Valyo said,  “The strong State of the Union speech by President Biden leaves no doubt that he is fit and capable to lead for four more years. The contrast between his administration and the one he followed could not be more clear. The voters in the collar counties will continue to support President Biden as they did in 2020. President Biden has demonstrated that he can achieve bipartisan legislation.”

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According to experts, this year’s presidential and congressional elections will come down to a small group of voters in a handful of states.

And in an election of inches, both political parties will need to win over the support of the youngest and one of the fastest-growing demographics: Latinos.

The big question is, how?

Recently, The LIBRE Initiative compiled a seven-page memo digging into this question, providing both parties with a warning and blueprint for engaging and communicating effectively with Latino voters.

First, it helps to understand Hispanic voters’ demographic and political landscape.

By now, most people know that Latinos comprise a large part of the California, Florida and Texas electorate. Less discussed is how Hispanics constitute a growing share of the population in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin swing states.

Consider Pennsylvania, which narrowly went for President Biden in 2020. According to voter data compiled by Televisa/Univision, close to 200,000 Latinos voted in the 2020 presidential election. Biden won the Keystone State by 80,555 votes.

Another critical state is Wisconsin, where, according to a recent Census survey, nearly 447,000 Latinos live — 180,000 of them eligible to vote. Like in Pennsylvania, Biden narrowly won Wisconsin by almost 20,000 votes.

Finally, there is Michigan, where polling shows a tight race and Latinos constituting a small but growing part of the electorate.

If Republicans want to win, or at least come close to winning the Latino vote, polls show it means zeroing in on jobs and the economy. Despite positive recent economic numbers, many Latinos feel squeezed by inflation, made worse by Latinos not saving enough for retirement and not accessing financial tools that could help them weather unexpected economic storms.

Republicans would do well to remind Latinos that a few years ago, a Republican White House and Republican House of Representatives enacted several pro-growth economic policies that contributed to a historically low Latino unemployment rate punctuated by rising Latino entrepreneurship and homeownership rates.

For Democrats, it means convincing enough Latino voters why they deserve to remain in control of the White House and the Senate. Predicating your re-election strategy by pointing out how terrible the other party’s ideas are is a mighty big gamble with so much on the line.

Instead of spending the bulk of their time criticizing the other side, both political parties should cast a vision for how their policies will genuinely improve the lives of all Americans — including the Latino community.

The Latino electorate, in turn, should demand politicians running for office show how they plan to accomplish anything in a divided government. In other words, are there proposals that could receive bipartisan support?

Latinos are tired of excuses from the political class. We’re exercising our political clout and determined to make our voices heard. Like most Americans, we want to provide for our families, save for a rainy day and invest in the future.

Which party does a better job of casting an aspirational vision where freedom and opportunity flourish may have a receptive audience with the growing Latino electorate — and may have them to thank for their electoral success come November.

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Despite a poor showing in statewide judicial races in 2023, Pennsylvania Republicans are bullish for 2024.

It’s a presidential election year and so far former President Trump is leading in the polls for the primary so barring an unforeseen event, the general election will likely be a rematch of Trump against President Biden.

“I think in Pennsylvania, the Republicans will do very, very well,” said  Republican consultant Charlie Gerow, CEO of Quantum Communications. “And as Pennsylvania goes, so goes the nation.”

Asked about the losses in 2023, Gerow said, “2023 was an ‘off-year election’ with a very different electorate than the folks who will show up at the polls next year.”

More people come out and vote in presidential election years.

“You’re going to have three times the number of voters participating in 2024 as you had in 2023,” said Gerow.

Scott Presler, a Republican voter registration activist who has been focusing on registering Pennsylvania voters this year, including spending three days in December at a recent gun show in Oaks, is also bullish.

“I feel more confident today about Republicans winning the presidency in 2024, than I did a year ago,” said Presler.

He points with pride to the recent “flip” of Beaver County from Democrat to Republican and believes Bucks County may be next. Luzerne and Centre counties are also on the cusp of flipping from blue to red.

In the first two weeks in December, the Democrats lost 2,165 voters while Republicans gained 3,530 voters.

“Republicans had a net gain of 5,695 voters in 14 days,” said Presler, who was also recently in Philadelphia teaching local Republicans how to register voters.

“This is monumental when you think of Joe Biden winning Pennsylvania in 2020 by 80,000 votes,” said Presler. “So I think 2024 is going to be a great year. I think Pennsylvania is winnable and anecdotally from what I’ve experienced the last three days at the gun show, granted it’s a gun show. These are Second Amendment voters.”

“Republican momentum is on the rise, with another Pennsylvania county flipping from blue to red just this week. The RNC is continuing to register Republican voters and encouraging them to ‘bank’ their vote for Republicans up and down the ballot in 2024, as Pennsylvanians stand ready to Beat Biden and retire Bob Casey once and for all!” said RNC Spokesperson Rachel Lee.

In November of 2021, Pennsylvania Democrats had 605,188 more voters than Republicans.   Republicans have reduced Democrats’ advantage by over 161,000 voters in the last two years.

In 2023, some 50,000 Democrats and Independents have re-registered as Republicans in Pennsylvania.

The RNC is also pushing mail-in ballots in a Bank Your Vote campaign, to cut into the Democrats’ lead in that arena.

“People are hungry for change. One woman who was born in 1965 never registered to vote her entire life. She registered for the first time with me as a Republican,” said Presler.

“What I’m hearing from people is the theme, what they’re saying to me is, ‘The world is in chaos. The world is upside down and it’s time for a change.’ That’s what I’m hearing over and over again,” said Presler.

Many DelVal voters still abhor Trump and will likely never vote for him.

“Well, in other parts of the state, they are,” said Gerow.

“And, as you know, Donald Trump won here in Pennsylvania in 2016, and lost narrowly in 2020. So he’s got a very clear path to win again in 2024,” said Gerow. “And I believe he will.”

Asked about abortion, which Democrats have been successfully using as a wedge issue, including to attack Judge Carolyn Carluccio, the Republican who ran for the Supreme Court, Gerow believes that issue will fade.

“I don’t think it’s going to be as big as some of our Democratic friends will like it to be,” said Gerow. “I think the economy is going to be the dominant issue next year and the devastation of Bidenomics is going to reflect in the results.”

The other marquee race will be three-term incumbent Sen. Bob Casey who is being challenged by Dave McCormick, a Gulf War veteran, a successful businessman who also served in the Bush administration.

Gerow said, “Dave McCormick’s entire life is action packed. He gets things done. His record of accomplishment in the private sector far exceeds Bob Casey’s 34 years in politics. People are increasingly asking, ‘What has Bob Casey actually done?’ They don’t ask that about Dave McCormick.”

“I think it always boils down to personalities,” said Gerow.

He also pointed to Philadelphia state Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta, who the state Democratic Party endorsed for auditor general, over two other candidates.

“He’s a Marxist for crying out loud,” said Gerow. “That’s where the Democratic Party is right now. It’s identity politics. He’s African American. He’s gay. He checks all the boxes. That’s what they’re looking for, not competency. That guy’s got no business running for auditor general.”

In contrast, incumbent Timothy DeFoor, who is also African American, has a strong background in auditing and accounting.

In addition to the economy, Presler said people are concerned with rising crime. He is convincing Philadelphians to either register Republican as first-time voters or to switch parties based on rising crime.

“I’m getting formerly incarcerated people,” he said. “Business owners. They’ve changed their lives and they’re going ‘Oh my gosh, the taxes are incredible. Inflation is incredible. Crime is rising. The streets aren’t being cleaned.”

“Unlike 2020 or 2016, you’re going to see millions of people who have never been part of the process coming out to vote,” said Presler.

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Memo to presidential candidates Joe Biden and Donald Trump:

Assuming one of you will be elected president of the United States next year, many computer scientists believe you should be addressing what you think about artificial intelligence and how you plan to deal with the surge in this technology, which will break over the nation in the next president’s term.

Gentlemen, this matter is urgent, yet only a little has been heard from either of you who are seeking the highest office. President Biden did sign a first attempt at guidelines for AI, but he and Trump have been quiet on its transformative impact.

Indeed, the political class has been silent, preoccupied as it is with old and — against what will happen — irrelevant issues. Congress has been as silent as Biden and Trump. There are two congressional AI caucuses, but they have been concerned with minor issues, like AI in political advertising.

Climate change and AI stand out as game changers in the next presidential term.

On climate change, both of you have spoken: Biden has made climate change his own; Trump has dismissed it as a hoax.

The AI tsunami is rolling in, and the political class is at play, unaware that it is about to be swamped by a huge new reality: exponential change that can neither be stopped nor legislated into benignity.

Before the next presidential term is far advanced, the experts tell us that the nation’s life will be changed, perhaps upended by the surge in AI, which will reach into every aspect of how we live and work.

I have surveyed the leading experts in universities, government and AI companies and they tell me that any form of employment that uses language will be changed. Just this will be an enormous upset, reaching from journalism (where AI already has had an impact) to the law (where AI is doing routine drafting) to customer service (where AI is going to take over call centers) to fast food (where AI will take the orders).

The more one thinks about AI, the more activities come to mind that will be severely affected by its neural networks.

Canvas the departments and agencies of the government, and you will learn the transformational nature of AI. In the departments of Defense, Treasury and Homeland Security, AI is seen as a serious agent of change — even revolution.

The main thing is not to confuse AI with automation. It may resemble it, and many may take refuge in the benefits of automation, especially job creation. But AI is different. Rather than job creation, it appears, at least in its early iterations, set to do major job obliteration.

But there is good AI news, too.  And those in the political line of work can use good news, whetting the nation’s appetite with the advances that are around the corner with AI.

Many aspects of medicine will, without doubt, rush forward. Omar Hatamleh, chief adviser on artificial intelligence and innovation at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, says the thing to remember is that AI is exponential, but most thinking is linear.

Hatamleh is excited by the tremendous effect AI will have on medical research. He says that a child born today can expect to live to 120 years of age. How is that for a campaign message?

A good news story in AI should be enough to make campaign managers and speechwriters ecstatic. What a story to tell; what fabulous news to attach to a candidate. Think of an inaugural address that can claim AI research is going to begin to end the scourges of cancer, Alzheimer’s, Sickle cell and Parkinson’s.

Think of your campaign. Think of how you can be the president who broke through the disease barrier and extended life. AI researchers believe this is at hand, so what is holding you back?

Many would like to write the inaugural address for a president who can say, “With the technology that I will foster and support in my administration, America will reach heights of greatness never before dreamed of and which are now at hand. A journey into a future of unparalleled greatness begins today.”

So why, oh why, have you said nothing about the convulsion — good or bad — that is about to change the nation? Here is a gift as palpable as the gift of the moonshot was for John F. Kennedy.

Where are you? Either of you?

When pollsters like Siena College and Emerson College want to take the temperature of voters in swing states, they inevitably stick a political thermometer in Pennsylvania. And as of late, those polls show “Scranton Joe” Biden trailing Donald Trump in the incumbent president’s home state.

Biden won Pennsylvania in 2020, and Democrats had strong showings here in 2022 and 2023. So, are Democrats really in danger of losing Pennsylvania in the 2024 White House race? Political pros say current polling is interesting — but not predictive.

“It can be somewhat dangerous to compare different polls that have different methodologies that were in the field at different times.” Republican political consultant Christopher Nicholas of Eagle Consulting Group told DVJournal. “That can get a little dicey…the usual disclaimers apply about polls being a year away, and Trump is looking like the presumptive nominee, but he’s not. No one has cast a vote yet.”

Fellow Republican political consultant Charlie Gerow of Quantum Communications agrees. He compared the early Biden-Trump polls to watching the stock market because “you never know what you’re going to get.” Gerow saw the polls as a “snapshot in time” and one that can’t be taken seriously until “you begin to see consistent patterns — which we’re not.”

If Republicans are urging caution, how do others feel?

“We have to be careful to not say that one poll is ‘the one,’” said Jeff Jubelirer of Bellevue Communications Group. He prefers looking at all data before deciding which candidate leads the race.

Recent polls in Pennsylvania show Trump leading by an average of a point and a half, according to RealClearPolitics. It is a significant swing from earlier this year when RCP found Biden leading by about four points.

There is still a feeling that voters appear desperate for candidates not named Biden or Trump. Both are deeply underwater with the electorate, though for different reasons. A Franklin & Marshall College poll found that 84 percent of Pennsylvania voters thought that Biden was too old for a second term.

Trump, on the other hand, is viewed as a “threat to democracy” by many independent voters who would like an alternative to the elderly Biden.

“People are dreading that being the choice again,” commented Nicholas, who compared the 2024 election to the 2016 election between Trump and Hillary Clinton. “It’s almost to the point of parody now: ‘Trump is the only Republican that Biden could beat’ and ‘Biden is the only Democrat that Trump could beat.’”

Why won’t both parties jettison Biden and Trump off the ballots? Fear, according to political strategists.

“[I]f all of sudden one of them went away, that party would become a surefire loser,” said Nicholas. “That’s how people view it now. Maybe it’s like a self-fulfilling prophecy.”

Gerow is full steam ahead on the Trump train. “The people that don’t want Trump dislike him for other reasons other than his age and mental acuity,” Gerow said. “Let the chips fall where they will.”

Jubelirer said he believes Biden could be vulnerable if he had to run against a Republican not named “Trump.” He called the other candidates “very formidable,” with the exception of Chris Christie.

He’s not sure who the best Biden replacement might be. “Kamala Harris isn’t much more popular – if at all – than Joe Biden,” he told DVJournal. “I do think…[California Gov.] Gavin Newsom…could engender more support than Joe Biden.”

The only Democrats officially challenging Biden are Minnesota U.S. Rep. Dean Phillips and author Marianne Williamson. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the Democratic primary to launch an independent presidential campaign.

As for Newsom, accusations of running a shadow campaign against Biden have dogged the governor for most of 2023. He has made multiple foreign trips and visits to other U.S. states. However, Newsom hasn’t formally declared a presidential run.

A potential wild card is Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro. The extremely popular Democrat gave essentially a stump speech to New Hampshire Democrats in September, portraying his administration as a “get sh-t done” one.

That doesn’t mean that he should run for president in 2024. Nicholas quipped that “in [Shapiro’s] mind, it’s an inevitability.”

Jubelirer thinks it is too early for Shapiro to seek national office. “His name’s been out there a little, but the country doesn’t know him yet, except those of us who are in the know.” He thinks 2028 is a better time for Shapiro.

As for next year’s presidential election, voters may enjoy gobbling up poll numbers instead of doing research into more important areas.

“The public remains interested in the ‘horse race’ aspect of the election,” said Jubelirer. “Who’s winning? Who’s losing? It draws more interest than a candidate’s positions on issues and other angles.”

It’s Christmas in July for Dave McCormick.

Americans For Prosperity Action announced Wednesday it is throwing its weight behind the Republican in his campaign against incumbent Sen. Bob Casey Jr. in 2024. The endorsement comes despite the fact that the author and former hedge fund CEO who ran against Dr. Mehmet Oz for the Republican nomination last year has not announced another bid for office.

He is, however, widely expected to eventually enter the race.

The political action committee, affiliated with the free-market organization Americans For Prosperity, announced other U.S. Senate endorsements on Wednesday as well. They included U.S. Sen. Pete Ricketts of Nebraska and retired U.S. Army Captain Sam Brown of Nevada.

“The last three election cycles have made it clear that if we want better policies from Washington, we need better candidates who can lead our country forward,” said Nathan Nascimento, the PAC’s executive director. “AFP Action is prepared for an unprecedented election cycle engagement in 2024. We’ll be engaging in more primaries at every level of office and using our unmatched data capabilities to bring new voters into the political process. We are ready to deploy the strongest and most effective grassroots army in the country to change the outcome of critical races and elect champions for policies that will empower Americans.”

McCormick, who served in the 82nd Airborne Division during the Persian Gulf War, was a Treasury undersecretary for President George W. Bush. He was CEO of Bridgewater Associates, one of the world’s largest hedge funds, from 2020 to 2022.

McCormick has been traveling the state, meeting potential voters, and promoting his book, “Superpower in Peril.”

Casey, who shares a name with his famous father who had served as Pennsylvania governor, is seeking his fourth term.

Perhaps taking a populist cue from Sen. John Fetterman (D) in 2022, Casey said on his campaign website he will “stand up to powerful corporate interests and make the lives of hardworking Pennsylvanians a little bit easier.”

Between 2017 and 2022, Casey’s top contributors were law firms, lobbyists, finance, insurance, and real estate firms, according to FollowtheMoney.org

“Pennsylvania cannot have another term of Bob Casey rubber-stamping Biden’s big-government agenda. Pennsylvanians have seen enough from Casey to know that he’s not going to stand up to the status quo,” said AFP Action Senior Advisor Ashley Kingensmith. “They’ve have had enough of record-breaking spending, redistribution, and constraining regulation from Washington—and they’re the ones paying the price.

“That’s why we’re sending out the signal and encouraging Dave McCormick to enter this race and give the Keystone State the representation it needs in Washington. Should McCormick choose to run, he will have the backing and enthusiasm of our grassroots who are ready to send him to Washington,” she said.

Nascimento added, “This is an example of AFP Action getting involved earlier in the election cycle. We’re identifying strong candidates who have the qualities and principles we want to see representing Americans in Washington. Dave McCormick is one of those candidates.”

Should McCormick decide to run, the Democrats have their swords out.

Maddy McDaniel, senior communications adviser to the Pennsylvania Democratic Party, said, “David McCormick is a Wall Street mega-millionaire who has sold out Pennsylvanians to make millions for himself, his wealthy friends, and the Chinese government. Sen. Bob Casey has spent his career delivering for Pennsylvania families, while David McCormick has shipped American jobs overseas and prioritized China over Pennsylvania.”

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