Pennsylvania Republicans are gaining on Democrats in voter registration, part of a nationwide trend reshaping party rolls. But party activists warn that it’s turnout, not sign ups, that wins elections.
According to the Pennsylvania Department of State, Democrats currently have 3,549,732 active registered voters, compared with 3,491,885 Republicans. Another 1.3 million voters are registered as independents or with smaller parties. While Democrats still hold a numerical edge, the gap has narrowed dramatically over the past decade.
The shift mirrors national trends. The New York Times reported that in the 30 states where voters register by party, Democrats have lost 2.1 million voters in the past four years, while Republicans gained 2.4 million.
Berwood Yost, political science professor at Franklin & Marshall College and director of the F&M poll, said the numbers are striking. In a February analysis, Yost credited former President Donald Trump for energizing Republican registration, noting GOP voters are up 1 percent since 2020 while Democratic registrations are down 7 percent. Independents and minor-party voters have increased 6 percent.
“The Times missed an important feature of these trends — independent/unaffiliated voter registration has increased noticeably, too,” Yost said. But he added a cautionary note: “The Republicans’ policy ideas seem to be unpopular. The danger for Republicans is that presidential approval is associated with registration, so if support for the president continues to decline, it could show up, at some point, in the registration statistics.”
Scott Presler, a Republican activist who runs the group Early Vote Action, has been working in Pennsylvania and New Jersey to boost GOP numbers. He points to Democratic registration advantages shrinking from 1.2 million in 2008 to just 53,000 in 2024.
In a recent Fox News interview, Presler noted the Pennsylvania Democrats have gone from 1.2 million more registered voters in 2008 to only 53,000 “active voters from flipping Pennsylvania from blue to red.”
After registration, voter turnout is the key.
“The biggest hurdle (in getting out the vote) in 2024 was people believing their vote would be stolen,” Presler told DVJournal. But in the 2024 elections, Trump won the popular vote and all seven swing states, so “we’ve proven we can win.”
For 2025 and the 2026 midterms, the challenge will be “getting every Republican to vote in every election.”
This includes taking advantage of mail-in ballots, which will be the “key to defeating three Supreme Court justices in 2025 and Gov. Shapiro in 2026,” he said.
Pennsylvania Republicans hope to defeat the three Democratic Supreme Court justices who are on the ballot for retention, citing the trio’s rulings in favor of strict COVID lockdowns, redistricting that favored Democrats and resulted in the flipping of three congressional seats, and the rejection of a legislative attempt to remove progressive Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner.
So far this year, the ratio of requests for mail-in ballots has been 2.6 Democratic to 1 Republican, Presler said. In 2024, the ratio was 2 to 1. But in previous elections, the ratio had been 5 to 1 or 6 to 1, making it much harder for Republicans to win while just voting on election day, he said.
“We must get every Republican to lock in their vote,” said Presler.
He is also bullish on Erie County flipping.
“Erie County will be the next Bucks County,” he said. The Bucks County voter registration majority flipped from Democratic to Republican in 2024. He noted that Erie County is also the “quintessential American swing county.” President Trump won it in 2016, former President Biden won it in 2020, and President Trump won it again in 2024.
And a Republican advantage for 2025, is that Erie resident Matt Wolford, who is running for Commonwealth Court, said Presler. He believes that having a native son on the ballot will drive up Republican turnout, not only in Erie but also in the surrounding counties.
“This is how we will prevail this year, prepare for 2026 and take Pennsylvania off the table for 2028,” he said. His Early Vote Action is not a think tank, but rather “a battle tank. And I feel like a general,” Presler said.
Pennsylvania Republican leaders are putting resources into county-level registration drives. State GOP Chairman Greg Rothman has organized a voter registration contest among county parties.
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Bucks County: Republicans now hold a 195,907 to 183,878 edge over Democrats.
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Chester County: Democrats lead 149,223 to 146,146, but GOP Chairman Raffi Terzian believes Republicans can overtake them soon.
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Montgomery County: Democrats maintain a strong advantage, 288,883 to 202,169.
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Delaware County: Democrats hold 186,731 registrations to Republicans’ 138,551, though GOP Chairman Frank Agovino recently launched a new registration drive led by Media Republican leader Michael Straw.
“Last year we gained voter registrations across the county, and we are continuing to see progress in many areas,” Straw said. “With a focused effort, we will achieve even greater results.”
National Voter Registration Day is set for Sept. 16, when more than 150 community organizations, including the League of Women Voters, will host events across Pennsylvania.
“Right now, over 40 million Americans either moved or turned 18 in the last year, and others have naturalized or changed their names, requiring a voter registration update,” said Brian Miller, executive director of VOTE, which manages the event. “Those are the voters who can decide the school board budgets, the housing policy, the local races that shape our daily lives.”