If Donald Trump wins Pennsylvania’s 19 Electoral College votes in November– and likely the White House with it — Democrats will almost certainly second guess Kamala Harris’ decision to keep Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-Pa.) off the ticket.
And a new poll of 1,607 likely voters by Wick Insights indicates they might be right.
The poll shows Democrat Harris would lead Republican Trump 51 to 45 percent in the Keystone State today if Shapiro were her running mate instead of Gov. Tim Walz (D-Minn.).
Instead, the RealClearPolitics average shows Harris and Trump in a 47-47 percent tie. Many pundits predict the candidate who carries Pennsylvania will also be the next president.
“I think a lot of Pennsylvanians are very disappointed that he wasn’t picked. You’re seeing he actually was outperforming significantly at or outside the margin of error,” David Burrell, Managing Partner at Wick Insights, said in a recent interview.
The poll also shows incumbent Democrat Bob Casey Jr. with just a two-point lead (46-44 percent) over Republican Dave McCormick. The RealClearPolitics polling average lead for Casey is around 6.5 percent.
There’s never been a clear answer on why Harris picked Walz over Shapiro. There has been reporting that Harris connected better with Walz versus Shapiro during their one-on-one interviews. NBC News reported Shapiro, who is halfway into his first term as Pennsylvania governor, believes there’s more to accomplish.
But most political observers, including Democrats close to Harris, say Shapiro’s Jewish faith and strong support of Israel was a stumbling block as well.
“Not only is he exceptionally smart and capable, but, in my opinion, he brought the math to the path of 270,” said state Rep. Ryan Bizzarro (D-Erie) said after Shapiro’s rejection.
The Wick Insights survey also examined the effect that Robert Kennedy Jr. had on the race. It found 91 percent of those who had a favorable opinion of RFK Jr. supported Trump, while 90 percent of those with an unfavorable opinion supported Harris. Most Kennedy supporters trended towards Trump, but Burrell wasn’t willing to say that was how they’ll vote on Election Day.
Kennedy dropped out last month and endorsed Trump.
Twenty-six percent said stopping inflation and rising prices is the most important issue. Another 25 percent put preserving the integrity of America’s democratic process the top issue. Twenty-four percent of those surveyed put illegal immigration and the U.S.-Mexico border as the biggest issues for 2024.
Harris has attempted to chip away at Trump’s lead on economic issues. She rolled out a federal price control proposal last month, then made it the central focus of her latest ad. The poll, however, found Trump remained ahead of Harris as the candidate believed best at taming inflation with a 50 to 43 percent lead there. Trump also led Harris 49 to 44 percent on who would be better at preventing a recession.
His biggest lead was on immigration, with 52 percent of respondents saying Trump would reduce illegal immigration, compared to 38 percent who said Harris would be better. Trump also led on resolving the wars in the Middle East and in Ukraine (48-42 percent)
Harris held the lead on reducing the cost of healthcare and preserving America’s democratic process.
Burrell said Harris closed the gap on certain issues with Trump, but wasn’t sure if it will be sustained. “Trump’s team thinks through advertising and through exposure they can fix this, but it’s a real shift,” he observed.
Almost 40 percent of those surveyed considered themselves Democrats, while 37 percent called themselves Republicans. About 20 percent said they were independent.
