Gov. Josh Shapiro may be a darling of the national press and on the 2028 presidential short list, but if the Pennsylvania Democrat’s numbers don’t pick up at home, he may be looking for a job next year.
The new Commonwealth Foundation poll found 62 percent of voters think the state is on the wrong track.
The poll revealed widespread dissatisfaction, with 38 percent of respondents considering leaving the state or knowing someone who has. The high cost of living, taxes, and job opportunities in “red” states were the main reasons cited for moving out. Popular destinations included Florida (24 percent), North Carolina (13 percent), and Texas (12 percent).
Some 36 percent said they hold Shapiro responsible for the budget impasse — the third consecutive year under his administration. In addition, 64 percent oppose the Democratic governor’s proposed spending increases, and 65 percent don’t want the state’s Rainy Day Fund tapped to cover the gap.
Half of the registered voters polled said they are unsure or do not believe Shapiro has delivered significant accomplishments during his term. Of those who said he had, 11 percent expressed a generally favorable view, and another 11 percent cited his approach to economic growth. Just 3 percent pointed to bringing in new businesses.
“Gov. Shapiro has a choice: continue down a path of tax hikes, partisanship, and reckless spending, or finally work with the legislature to deliver the responsible reforms that taxpayers, families, and students are demanding,” said Erik Telford, senior vice president for public affairs at the Commonwealth Foundation, a free-market think tank.
Shapiro’s shortfall certainly isn’t a lack of messaging. He’s hired a record 21 communications staffers to document and post his official actions to social media — at a taxpayer cost of nearly $3 million a year, The Philadelphia Inquirer reported. By comparison, his predecessor had 13 staffers. The poll found 70 percent of voters view the expansion as an inappropriate use of taxpayer funds.
Meanwhile, 72 percent said they want Shapiro to work with the legislature to, as he often says, “get stuff done.”
On the economy, just 30 percent rated Pennsylvania’s economy as excellent or good. Some 64 percent said conditions are worsening for them personally, 54 percent believe it is hard to find a job in the state, and only 17 percent think Pennsylvania is better for business than it was a decade ago.
Education also scored poorly. More than 6 in 10 voters — 61 percent — gave the state’s K-12 school system grades of C, D, or F. Strong majorities favor school choice options:
- 71 percent support refundable tax credit scholarships for education expenses.
- 72 percent support Education Opportunity Accounts.
- 67 percent support Lifeline Scholarships for students in failing schools.
- 79 percent support expanding the Educational Improvement Tax Credit (EITC) and Opportunity Scholarship Tax Credit (OSTC) programs.
Shapiro used his line-item veto to remove Lifeline Scholarship funding from the 2023 budget.
Energy and utility bills are another concern. Seventy-three percent said their electricity costs have increased over the past year. And 74 percent oppose Shapiro’s proposed climate initiatives, including the Pennsylvania Climate Emissions Reduction Act (PACER) and the Pennsylvania Reliable Energy Sustainability Standard (PRESS), citing fears they would raise prices further.
The survey also found 72 percent oppose Pennsylvania’s participation in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), a cap-and-trade program. Pennsylvania is the only energy-producing state in the consortium.
Republicans see an opportunity. “These findings should buoy the Garrity for Governor campaign and their prospective donors,” said Christopher Nicholas, a longtime GOP consultant. State Treasurer Stacy Garrity, who is running for governor in 2026, echoed that message.
“This poll buttresses those who believe, like me, that Gov. Shapiro has a glass jaw, politically,” Nicholas said. “Now it’s up to Garrity and the PA GOP to raise the funds needed to deliver that message to voters in 2026.”
Garrity added: “This latest poll confirms what families across the Commonwealth already know: Under Josh Shapiro’s leadership, Pennsylvania is heading in the wrong direction. Businesses are fleeing the state, inflation is crushing households, and Pennsylvanians are moving away for other job opportunities. I’m running for governor to offer a totally new vision, and I can assure you that I will fight to make Pennsylvania affordable again.”
Democratic consultant T.J. Rooney countered that the results reflect national economic headwinds, not Shapiro’s leadership.
“The Commonwealth Foundation’s poll reflects what Gov. Shapiro has said all along: Pennsylvanians are feeling the squeeze of inflation, higher costs of living, and economic uncertainty. These are real challenges — national and global in scope — that demand steady, pragmatic leadership here at home,” Rooney said.
“At the end of the day, Pennsylvanians know the governor to be a proven problem-solver, focused not on partisan point-scoring, but on building a stronger, more affordable, and more competitive Pennsylvania for everyone,” he added. “That message will serve him well in 2026.”
The Commonwealth Foundation poll surveyed 800 registered Pennsylvania voters Aug. 22–28.
Shapiro did not respond to a request for comment.