A new Emerson College poll of 1,000 Pennsylvania voters found former president Donald Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris 49 to 48 percent in the race for the White House. His lead grew to 51 to 49 percent when the undecided vote was allocated to the two candidates. Trump and Harris are tied at 47 percent when independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is factored into the contest.
It’s the first time in a week that Trump led Harris in a survey of Keystone State voters. Polls from Franklin & Marshall, Quinnipiac, and The New York Times/Siena gave Harris a small lead.
Harris’s lead is due in part to her strong support among union members and their families.
“Pennsylvania likely voters in unions break for Harris by 15 points, 57 to 42 percent, while those not in a union and without union members in the household break for Trump, 50 to 48 percent,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
Families with union members in the household support Harris 50 to 42 percent.
Voters trusted Trump more than Harris on fracking by a 50 to 43 percent margin. Eight percent did not trust either candidate. Pennsylvania was ranked second in the nation in natural gas production, behind only Texas, by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
More than 50 percent of Pennsylvania voters labeled the economy as the most important issue. The only other issue in double digits was “threats to democracy.”
In the U.S. Senate race between incumbent Democrat Bob Casey Jr. and Republican Dave McCormick, Casey has a 48 to 44 percent lead over McCormick. Eight percent are undecided.
“He’s a formidable candidate and his campaign team is very formidable…beating a Casey name is difficult,” Mercury Senior Vice President Vince Galko, a longtime state GOP strategist, told DVJournal.
Casey was able to secure some crossover appeal from Trump supporters. The polls found six percent of Casey voters plan to vote for Trump, while one percent of McCormick supporters back Harris.
Both parties have dumped millions into Pennsylvania in both the presidential and Senate races. The presidential campaigns have already announced plans to spend a combined $211 million for TV, radio, and digital ads in the state.
So far, the Casey-McCormick race has cost more than $200 million total. A big number, but it still trails the 2022 Senate race between John Fetterman and TV personality Dr. Mehmet Oz. The campaigns, parties, and associated PACs spent $312.4 million on that contest.
The poll also gave Republican David Sunday a one-point lead over Democrat Eugene DePasquale in the attorney general race at 43 to 42 percent. Almost 15 percent were undecided.
