New Polls Put Pennsylvania in Play for White House, Senate
New polls of Pennsylvania voters show the ping-pong contest between Democratic President Joe Biden and Republican Donald Trump still bouncing within the margin of error. The fight over Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate seat also remains tight, with Republican Dave McCormick trailing incumbent Democrat Sen. Bob Casey Jr. by single digits.
A Susquehanna Polling and Research survey of 450 likely voters found Biden led Trump 50 to 45 percent, just outside the margin of error. While that poll was just released, the survey was conducted from Feb. 27 and March 6.
Perhaps most notably, Biden’s five-point edge is down from Susquehanna’s January poll when Biden led by eight points — 47 to 39 percent.
In another sign of how close the Keystone State race is likely to be, a Bloomberg poll of 807 registered voters, conducted from March 8 to 12, had the race tied at 45 percent. A previous Bloomberg poll gave Trump a six-point lead.
Biden’s approval rating remained near historic lows at 40.5 percent. Fifty-five percent of voters disapproved of Biden.
So, why would an extremely unpopular Democrat poll better or equal to his Republican competition?
“Voters are faced with a binary choice for president,” public affairs executive Larry Ceisler told DVJournal. “It’s solidifying. It’s going to be a very close election.”
Republicans weren’t concerned that Keystone State voters would pick Biden in November.
“Although recently released, [the Susquehanna poll is] an old poll, taken almost a month old,” said longtime GOP strategist Charlie Gerow. “More recent polls show Trump winning Pennsylvania.”
The RealClearPolitics poll average gives Trump an extremely slim 0.2 percent lead in the state.
In an email to DVJournal, Susquehanna Polling and Research president and CEO James Lee acknowledged the results could be considered stale because they weren’t released for weeks.
“[We] wanted to be completely transparent about the dates the poll was conducted so you can decide for yourself,” he said.
That revelation didn’t concern Dr. Christopher Borick, a political science professor at Muhlenberg College. He told DVJournal that he didn’t expect any dramatic shifts in polling because Americans have a “deep level of familiarity” with Biden and Trump.
As for the Senate race, Borick said McCormick’s campaign could take heart that he’s polling within a few points of Casey, an incumbent who sailed to reelection victories in 2012 and 2018.
Borick added the Casey camp could also see the poll as a positive because all other polls gave him a lead, albeit one that continues to tighten. “Going into a competitive election cycle and having any advantage is probably welcome news,” he said.
Democratic strategists like Neil Oxman expressed confidence Casey will remain on top.
“I just think that Casey is Pennsylvania,” Oxman told DVJournal. “He really represents the majority of Pennsylvanians…He has a lot of independent voters and he has a lot of Republicans who support him.”
An Emerson College Poll from earlier this month found nine percent of those surveyed would vote for Trump and Casey.
McCormick has touted his endorsements from the Pennsylvania Republican Party, GOP congressmen, and law enforcement groups including the Delaware County Fraternal Order of Police. He avoided a nasty primary fight when the Pennsylvania Department of State removed one candidate from the ballot while another withdrew.
Ceisler, however, wondered if there was still skepticism about McCormick following the 2022 U.S. Senate Republican primary where McCormick narrowly lost to TV’s Dr. Mehmet Oz. Oz, who was endorsed by Trump, lost to Democrat John Fetterman.
McCormick endorsed Trump for president shortly after Super Tuesday. But Trump has not weighed in on the Pennsylvania Senate race.
“McCormick is probably looking for the best of both worlds with Trump. But he could also end up with the worst of both worlds with Trump,” observed Ceisler.
The Casey and McCormick campaigns did not comment.
