DV Journal

In January 2021, the FBI started using the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) instead of the Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) system for police departments to report crime statistics.

And while some major police departments (including Philadelphia’s) have made the change, in 2022, almost a third of law enforcement agencies did not report data to NIBRS. That includes about 90 percent of the departments in Pennsylvania.

But the D.C.-based Council on Criminal Justice claims around 80 percent of Americans will be covered by the new system by the end of the year.

What’s not in dispute is that, for the past three years or so, crime reporting in the U.S. has been less reliable.

Rafael Mangual, a fellow with the Manhattan Institute think tank, said changing to NIBRS is cumbersome for police departments.

“Under the UCR, police departments were told to report the most serious crimes [in a single episode].” said Mangual. “Only the most serious crimes would actually get reported to the FBI. So, the numbers were always a little off.”

However, under NIBRS, up to 10 crimes per episode are reported.

“The benefit of the numbers was that you could record up to 10 offenses for each incident,” Mangual said. “So, the idea was that this is going to be more thorough, more reliable data, right?”

And this would give a “clearer picture of what crime looks like.”

“What I don’t think the government anticipated very well is the compliance burden is pretty significant with any kind of reporting requirements,” said Mangual. “But especially when you’re talking about switching over to a completely new system.  A lot of departments around the country just haven’t made the transition.”

As a result, the data the FBI is using for its crime statistics, the statistics often cited in the media to show that crime has risen or been reduced, are based on a smaller data set, said Mangual. “They’ve had to draw pretty broad inferences based on a much smaller set of departments and sort of draw implications about what that means for the rest of the country.”

“It’s just not as accurate a picture as I think we’re going to get in five or 10 years,” said Mangual.

In Radnor, Police Superintendent Chris Flanagan said his department is nearly ready to start using NIBRS. It will be purchasing new software, and officers will be trained in how to use it.

“We’re almost there,” he said. “It is a new challenge for the local police.” It will take officers longer to write their reports, and a designated NIBRS-compliant person will check those reports.

However, Flanagan said departments must eventually comply with NIBRS to receive federal grants.

Abington Police Chief Patrick Malloy said his department is also close to implementing NIBRS.

In the meantime, municipalities continue sending their UCR statistics to the state police. Abington had 1,279 serious (Part One) crimes, along with simple assault and weapons offenses from Aug. 1, 2021, through July 31, 2022; 1,649 from Aug. 1, 2022, through July 1, 2023; and 1,546 from Aug. 1, 2023, through July 31, 2024.

Radnor saw 1,005 serious crimes, simple assaults, and weapons offenses from Aug. 1, 2021, through July 31, 2022; 1,297 from Aug. 1, 2022, through July 31, 2023; and 1,045 from Aug. 1, 2023, through July 31, 2024.

Mangual said there are other nuances in the crime numbers, including that more people are working from home and less likely to be out and about where they could become crime victims. Also, more people are shopping online, he said.

Other issues include police departments struggling to recruit and keep officers.

In the presidential race, former President Donald Trump’s campaign criticized Vice President Kamala Harris’ claims that crime is going down, saying the nationwide crime data is incomplete.

“There’s not less crime; there’s just less reporting of crime data,” the Trump campaign said in an email to the press.  Indeed, polls show most Americans believe crime in their area is increasing.

Another measure of crime, the National Crime Victimization Survey, shows crime is up over pre-COVID levels. That measure showed a 43 percent increase in violent crimes, a 58 percent increase in rapes, an 89 percent increase in aggravated assaults and a 56 percent increase in robberies between 2020 and 2022, the most recent information.

More Americans were victims of violent crimes in 2022 than any year since 2012, the Trump campaign said.

Mangual said the new NIBRS system will become more accurate as time passes and more departments input their data.

“Then the picture will get clearer,” he said.

“There are steps Congress could take, in terms of incentivizing transition, by conditioning federal funds on compliance,” he added, something Flanagan believes is already in the works. “The difference between what the FBI records and the National Crime Victimization survey shows, there’s always been a gulf there.”

That’s because not all crimes are reported to police.

“If you’re on your way to work and someone snatches your phone out of your hand and they disappear in a crowd, if you’re in a rush, a lot of people will just eat it and go on with their day,” said Mangual.

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Turn on the TV news at 11 p.m., and there’s a never-ending parade of shootings, carjackings, and other violent criminal incidents.

In recent years, police have been under attack, be it from Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris, who advocated defunding the police, or progressive Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner, who has a reputation for prosecuting officers while being lenient toward offenders.

Republican Senate candidate Dave McCormick was recently endorsed by the Pennsylvania Fraternal Order of Police, Pennsylvania State Troopers Association and 48 county sheriffs. Previously, the PA FOP had endorsed Democratic Sen. Bob Casey Jr., McCormick’s opponent.

“Dave’s committed to making sure we have the resources we need to fulfill our mission of protecting millions of Pennsylvania families,” said Pennsylvania State Troopers Association President Stephen Polishan.

It can be challenging for municipalities to hire enough police officers to fill vacancies.

Stefan Roots, the City of Chester mayor, told DVJ that Chester police are now on 12-hour shifts.

“We’re way below what we’re budgeted to hire,” said Roots, a Democrat who took office in January. The department has about 70 members, but he did not want to disclose the shortfall.

“What the 12-hour shifts do is take the amount of cops that we have and instead of dividing them by three throughout the day, we divide them by two. So, we automatically have more officers available on the streets.”

“Like every police department in America, the two Rs are recruitment and retention.”

The state police and, through District Attorney Jack Stollsteimer, Delaware County Park Police are also filling in at City Hall, he said.

“So, we have more officers consistently on the streets than we’ve had in a long time,” said Roots. “And that’s the key.”

While crime has been creeping up, it’s lower than the historically high numbers of five and 10 years ago, he said.

In 2023, there were 13 homicides in Chester, 11 sexual assaults and 76 robberies. In the first six months of 2024, the city saw three homicides, four sexual assaults, and 11 robberies. Chester has about 33,000 residents. After years of financial difficulties, it’s currently under state receivership.

“It does help, the presence of law enforcement in the neighborhood,” said Roots. “It makes the bad guys think twice.”

Former Chester County District Attorney Thomas Hogan said, “The 12-hour shifts are sold as a way to save money, and they are popular with police. The problem is that it encourages the police to start pursuing other jobs. They are only working five or six days every two weeks as police officers, leaving a lot of free time. Instead of a police officer who is focused on policing all of the time, you end up with a real estate broker who is a police officer on the side.”

Mike Chitwood, former Upper Darby police superintendent, believes 12-hour police shifts will help “with more time on the streets.”

But he warns officers will burn out.

“Eventually, it’ll get tiring. Obviously, they don’t have the manpower. It’s like robbing Peter to pay Paul,” said Chitwood.

He’s also concerned about officers from other agencies policing the town.

“There’s no way you’re going to get the same policing as from your own officers,” said Chitwood.

Roots is coupling his police shift change with an emphasis on enforcing a 9 p.m. to 6 a.m. curfew already on the books for youth under 18. He’s also highlighting the many activities available for young people through the Safe Summer Initiative.

Chitwood said enforcing the curfew should help.

Hogan said, “The community-based programs, like for juveniles, are only effective if they are paired up with vigorous enforcement tools. If the police do hot spot policing and target the most violent offenders, a juvenile program might add some marginal benefit. On its own, the program will not be effective.”

According to the state police, Delaware County had 32 murder/manslaughter cases in 2023 and 26 in 2024; there were 39 rapes in 2023 and 33 in 2024; and 393 robberies in 2023 with 113 so far in 2024.

In neighboring Chester County, there have been six murder/manslaughter cases in 2024 and five in 2025. Chester County saw 35 rapes so far this year and 67 last year. It reported 27 robberies in 2024 and 66 in 2023.

Bucks County had six murder/manslaughter cases in 2024 and eight in 2023. It reported 35 rapes this year and 72 last year. Bucks had 52 robberies in 2024 and 111 in 2023.

There have been eight murder/manslaughter cases in Montgomery County in 2024 and 22 in 2023. Montgomery County reported 50 rapes in 2024 and 104 in 2023. It listed 129 robberies in 2024 and 278 robberies in 2023.

McCormick promises to support law enforcement and be tough on crime.

“Joe Biden and Bob Casey’s soft-on-crime agenda has failed them and made our commonwealth more dangerous. It’s time our men and women in blue had a leader in Washington who will fight tirelessly to get them the support they deserve,” said McCormick. Casey, a Democrat, is in his 18th year in the Senate.

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