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Counterpoint: U.S. Should Turn Ukraine War Over to Its European Allies

For an alternate view see: “Point: How Should We Define This War?”

Instead of a quick Russian victory, Russia’s second invasion of Ukraine seems to be settling into a drawn-out slugfest. After Ukrainian soldiers surprisingly thwarted Russia’s offensive on Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital city, the gleeful United States rallied NATO nations to provide the Ukrainians with tens of billions in weapons technology.

After some Ukrainian battlefield successes in throwing back the Russians in the east and south of Ukraine, which gained back some Russian-occupied territory, the United States and its allies gradually succumbed to the vision of decisively handing the Russian Bear with a stinging military defeat.

Yet, Russia still has some advantages. By essentially invading Crimea and parts of industrialized eastern Ukraine in 2014 and combining this conquered territory with that of its initial gains in the east and south in the 2022 invasion, the Russians have given the Ukrainians a Herculean task to recapture such a large land area against a more significant and sometimes well-dug-in occupying force.

Unless the reported low morale of the Russian force causes it to suddenly collapse— as German troops did in 1918 during World War I — the war likely will turn into a long, bloody slog.

Although the West has emotionally rallied to Ukraine’s colors against a more formidable aggressor by providing tens of billions in military, economic and humanitarian aid, the United States now must make a hard-nosed analysis of whether its security requires a clear-cut Ukrainian victory, whether that’s even a realistic possibility, and if not, what a settlement of lands between the two countries would look like to create the best chance for a peaceful solution to the conflict that would endure.

The answer to the first question is that U.S. security does not require a resounding Ukrainian victory. When the underdog Ukrainians initially thwarted a quick Russian victory by throwing back the invaders short of Kyiv, Russia had already lost the war politically. Furthermore, the war to date has demonstrated that Russia’s military is hollow, grossly corrupt and incompetent, thus significantly lessening its threat to the faraway United States.

Thus, any remaining Russian threat outside the nuclear realm is mainly to Europe, not the United States. Yet even here, Russia’s economy is less than the size of tiny Italy’s, thus allowing a prosperous Europe to more than support the military capability needed to deal with a demonstrably stoppable Russian force, which after its debacle in Ukraine would be certifiably crazy to invade any country in Europe, including Moldova, soon.

Most wars in history are concluded by negotiated settlements, not swashbuckling triumphs. This war will likely end no differently — but only when both sides are exhausted, which could take some time because Ukraine understandably wants to recover all its territory and Vladimir Putin, insulated somewhat from domestic pressure, wants to salvage something he can claim as a victory. And if America’s wealthy European allies — their combined economies are larger than that of the United States — feel that an overwhelming Ukrainian victory is needed for their security, they can completely take over funding the war from the United States.

Currently, the United States provides more military aid to Ukraine than all other countries combined. If the Europeans lack some of the weapons needed by Ukraine, they can buy them from the United States and send them on. Through several recent presidential administrations, the U.S. military establishment has been trying to “pivot to Asia” to deal with the much bigger threat of a rising China, but the strategically overstretched United States — U.S. national debt has reached $31.5 trillion — has repeatedly been diverted from this objective by self-inflicted quagmires in the Middle East and providing tens of billions of aid to Ukraine.

Second, the Russian fighting force has been shown to be a paper tiger, despite its large mass alone likely being able to lock up the war with Ukraine in stalemate for perhaps years — much like Russia’s other foreign conflicts.

Third, a better solution would be to reach a settlement that gives both countries a face-saving way out and creates the best chance for long-term stability — that is, the absence of future wars over the same ground.

In the longer term, the two exhausted parties might agree to hold a referendum, or referendums, in Russian-speaking areas of Ukraine to let the people decide whether to be part of Russia, Ukraine or even a newly independent country. Such self-determination can often help settle conflicts based on ethnic or religious strife.

Instead of a quick Russian victory, Russia’s second invasion of Ukraine seems to be settling into a drawn-out slugfest. After Ukrainian soldiers surprisingly thwarted Russia’s offensive on Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital city, the gleeful United States rallied NATO nations to provide the Ukrainians with tens of billions in weapons technology.

After some Ukrainian battlefield successes in throwing back the Russians in the east and south of Ukraine, which gained back some Russian-occupied territory, the United States and its allies gradually succumbed to the vision of decisively handing the Russian Bear with a stinging military defeat.

Yet, Russia still has some advantages. By essentially invading Crimea and parts of industrialized eastern Ukraine in 2014 and combining this conquered territory with that of its initial gains in the east and south in the 2022 invasion, the Russians have given the Ukrainians a Herculean task to recapture such a large land area against a more significant and sometimes well-dug-in occupying force.

Unless the reported low morale of the Russian force causes it to suddenly collapse— as German troops did in 1918 during World War I — the war likely will turn into a long, bloody slog.

Although the West has emotionally rallied to Ukraine’s colors against a more formidable aggressor by providing tens of billions in military, economic and humanitarian aid, the United States now must make a hard-nosed analysis of whether its security requires a clear-cut Ukrainian victory, whether that’s even a realistic possibility, and if not, what a settlement of lands between the two countries would look like to create the best chance for a peaceful solution to the conflict that would endure.

The answer to the first question is that U.S. security does not require a resounding Ukrainian victory. When the underdog Ukrainians initially thwarted a quick Russian victory by throwing back the invaders short of Kyiv, Russia had already lost the war politically. Furthermore, the war to date has demonstrated that Russia’s military is hollow, grossly corrupt and incompetent, thus significantly lessening its threat to the faraway United States.

Thus, any remaining Russian threat outside the nuclear realm is mainly to Europe, not the United States. Yet even here, Russia’s economy is less than the size of tiny Italy’s, thus allowing a prosperous Europe to more than support the military capability needed to deal with a demonstrably stoppable Russian force, which after its debacle in Ukraine would be certifiably crazy to invade any country in Europe, including Moldova, soon.

Most wars in history are concluded by negotiated settlements, not swashbuckling triumphs. This war will likely end no differently — but only when both sides are exhausted, which could take some time because Ukraine understandably wants to recover all its territory and Vladimir Putin, insulated somewhat from domestic pressure, wants to salvage something he can claim as a victory. And if America’s wealthy European allies — their combined economies are larger than that of the United States — feel that an overwhelming Ukrainian victory is needed for their security, they can completely take over funding the war from the United States.

Currently, the United States provides more military aid to Ukraine than all other countries combined. If the Europeans lack some of the weapons needed by Ukraine, they can buy them from the United States and send them on. Through several recent presidential administrations, the U.S. military establishment has been trying to “pivot to Asia” to deal with the much bigger threat of a rising China, but the strategically overstretched United States — U.S. national debt has reached $31.5 trillion — has repeatedly been diverted from this objective by self-inflicted quagmires in the Middle East and providing tens of billions of aid to Ukraine.

Second, the Russian fighting force has been shown to be a paper tiger, despite its large mass alone likely being able to lock up the war with Ukraine in stalemate for perhaps years — much like Russia’s other foreign conflicts.

Third, a better solution would be to reach a settlement that gives both countries a face-saving way out and creates the best chance for long-term stability — that is, the absence of future wars over the same ground.

In the longer term, the two exhausted parties might agree to hold a referendum, or referendums, in Russian-speaking areas of Ukraine to let the people decide whether to be part of Russia, Ukraine or even a newly independent country. Such self-determination can often help settle conflicts based on ethnic or religious strife.

DelVal Ukrainian Community to Mark One-Year Anniversary of War With Russia

As the Russian war against Ukraine hits a year mark on Feb. 24, Delaware Valley Ukrainian community members are taking action to encourage America’s continued support to their beleaguered homeland.

Eugene Luciw, a Towamencin resident, is the son of Ukrainian immigrants. He is also president of the Philadelphia branch of the Ukrainian Congress Committee of America and director of external relations for the Ukrainian Sports Center and Ukrainian National Soccer Club in Horsham.

He said he is thankful America and Western Europe have been helping Ukraine with military aid to stave off the Russian army. And, he said, it is “extremely important” that assistance continues. The war continues relentlessly as neither Russia nor Ukraine shows signs of surrendering.

Congress has approved $113 billion in aid to Ukraine since the war began, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

The tanks that the U.S., Britain, and France recently approved for Ukraine will help with an offensive action to “push them off Ukrainian soil,” Luciw said.

“That is the objective. We cannot allow any Ukrainian soil to be kept in the hands of the Russians because they’ve proven themselves to be genocidal. They are clearing those areas and trying to eliminate Ukrainian nationalism. More than 260,000 Ukrainian children have been deported into Russia.”

Millions of Ukrainians are imprisoned in Russia’s “filtration camps,” he said.

“We’re happy President Biden is supporting us,” he said. “And our friends in Europe are now imposing additional sanctions. They are beginning to recognize Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism.”

Helping Ukraine is morally right, he said.

“Americans are great protectors of democracy and peace around the world,” said Luciw. “So it’s our obligation,” he said. “On the other hand, all Americans are practical. I can guarantee that an investment in Ukraine will produce abundant dividends. After Ukraine wins the war and pushes the Russians out, the Western world, led by the United States, not unlike the Marshall Plan, will rebuild and restore Ukraine. And Ukraine will restore itself. It’s a place of abundant resources.”

“Ukraine is going to be a powerhouse in Europe,” he said. “It’s an investment in our economic future.”

And as for Vladimir Putin threatening nuclear war, that is just “saber rattling,” he said. He believes Putin will not risk the response from western countries if he used nuclear weapons.

“Our Ukrainian American community will be solemnly commemorating this gruesome milestone date with a series of events,” he said.

The Ukrainian Educational & Cultural Center is inviting the public to their ‘Stand with Ukraine Candlelight Vigil – One Year of War’ Event on February 24 at 6 p.m. at the UECC, 700 N. Cedar Road, Jenkintown.

“Since the beginning of the war, the UECC has become the hub for the Ukrainian American community in the Philadelphia area, as it was envisioned to be when established 42 years ago. On behalf of the Ukrainian community of the Delaware Valley, the Board of Directors thanks our supporters for their generosity and aid for the people of our ancestral homeland,” stated Natalie Firko, president of the board of directors of the UECC. ”We invite all who support our war-torn Ukraine to gather on this day.”

At 9 a.m. on Saturday, Feb. 25, buses will carry people to Washington, D.C., for a rally at the Lincoln Memorial in support of Ukraine. Tickets can be ordered here.

On Sun., Feb 26, joint prayers will be at the Ukrainian Catholic Cathedral of the Immaculate Conception, 830 N. Franklin Street in Philadelphia, followed by a rally at 12:30 p.m.  Supporters will march from the Cathedral to the Liberty Bell. Also, on Sunday at 3 p.m., a musical performance, “The 365th of February,” Music of the Unbroken, organized by the Ukrainian Library, will be held at the UECC.

Other places around the world will also observe the war’s anniversary. The Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church (UGCC) declared February 24 a day of fasting, prayer, and almsgiving will be held in all dioceses and exarchates of the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church throughout the world.

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