Does poverty cause crime? Do more jobs mean fewer criminals?
That was one of the messages from Pennsylvania Democrats at the announcement of the Mid-Atlantic Clean Hydrogen Hub (MACH2) in Philadelphia last week. It will cost taxpayers $750 million in federal investments. Gov. Josh Shapiro touted the 20,000 jobs projected to be created, as did fellow Democrat Mayor Jim Kenney.
“This is about public safety,” Kenney said of the MACH2 project, arguing that young men who are currently involved in gun crime and “nonsense” will get jobs that will keep them out of trouble.
“These young boys out there who are in nonsense. Who are holding guns and shooting each other,” Kenney said. “They don’t need to do that when they’re making $80-90k a year. There’s no need for that. They get up and go to work, put on their work boots or whatever they wear to work, and go to work early in the morning.”
Shapiro agreed. “He is spot on. It means real opportunity for the kid living here in North Philly who maybe doesn’t want to go to college but wants to get to work. Wants to be able to get out of the cycle of violence that has gripped some in his neighborhood.”
But does growing up poor make people more likely to commit crimes? Do low-income families also have lower standards of moral and ethical behavior? It is an argument some advocates for the poor find demeaning. It also doesn’t appear to match the data.
That has Heather Mac Donald, Thomas W. Smith Fellow at the Manhattan Institute, suggesting Kenney is misleading the public.
In his comments, Kenney said jobs would help reduce crime because “kids see them going to work early in the morning is the best example you could ever give to a young person. To see their mom and dad get up and go out to work and not have to be involved in dangerous nonsense.”
Mac Donald said Kenney had the social science half right.
“He is correct that children raised by their two parents are far less likely to take up the gangbanging life,” Mac Donald told DV Journal. “He is also correct that a family where the parents work provides an essential model of bourgeois values and self-discipline.
“Mayor Kenny is wrong, however, that there is any necessity, economic or otherwise, that drives the perpetrators of drive-by shootings. The thugs who are wantonly spraying bullets across sidewalks and into cars and homes are not doing so because they have no food on the table.”
Mac Donald sees gang warfare as a “result of a lack of socialization” as opposed to a lack of jobs and that no one “who has a smartphone” lacks economic opportunity. She also takes umbrage at the notion that two-parent households with working parents have to earn $80,000 a year to feel the positive impacts of work and family cohesion.
“It is the discipline of work itself, not the salary level, that is essential to the socialization process.”
Justice reform advocates disagree with Mac Donald but suggest Kenney was speaking too broadly.
“What we do know is that education and jobs reduce recidivism, but that’s also easier said than done,” said Jason Pye, Director of Rule of Law Initiatives at the Due Process Institute. Pye said there is limited data on the issue. “Many employers won’t entertain hiring someone with a criminal record, so record-sealing and expungement become important…Reducing recidivism increases public safety.”
There is evidence that this tactic might work. Michigan passed its clean slate law in 2020. Pye said only 4.2 percent of those who got their records cleared committed another crime. Less than one percent were convicted of violent crimes. Other states might see similar numbers.
The Manhattan Institute argues otherwise. It cites a 2022 Columbia University research paper on poverty in New York City, and New York Police arrest data. Specifically, it noted that 23 percent of Asians in New York City had incomes below the poverty level, but they also had a low murder arrest rate, as proof there isn’t a cause-effect relationship between being poor and being a criminal.
And then there is the pragmatic question of who will get these jobs.
The Biden administration announced that union-mandate Project Labor Agreements will cover all of the projects in the MACH2 hub. According to Shapiro, that means “14,400 in construction jobs and 6,400 permanent jobs for skilled, union laborers, including plumbers, pipefitters, electricians, and more.” They will be working on solar farms, wind tower installation, and power transmission.
But how many of those “skilled union jobs” that will be paid for by the $750 million in federal spending are likely to go to the young people in low-income communities Kenney is talking about?
The hydrogen hub may or may not be the right way to fight climate change. But there is little evidence that fighting crime is the right way.
Beth Stefanide-Miscichowski says it is time for a change in the Delaware County District Attorney’s office, and the county’s crime statistics prove it.
The Republican candidate for DA issued a statement Tuesday drawing attention to the number of murders committed in Delaware County last year.
“In 2022 – the last full year for which there is data – there were more homicides in Delaware County than in Chester County, Montgomery County, and Bucks County combined,” said Stefanide-Miscichowski. “According to the Uniform Crime Report (UCR), there were 45 murders and non-negligent manslaughter cases in Delaware County in 2022, versus 44 combined for all the other counties.”
Stefanide-Miscichowski, a former assistant district attorney now in private practice, added, “Public safety in our county has collapsed since DA Jack Stollsteimer took office in 2020.”
“Every day, we see headlines about crimes that shock our communities and consciences, from thefts and robberies to carjackings and homicides. DA Stollsteimer has shown that his priorities are political and ideological – not pragmatic and results-focused. Since 2020, the county justice system he runs has gone from supporting law enforcement, denouncing crime, and advocating punishment for offenders to one that supports criminals, allows them out on low or no bail, and reduces the prison population by one-third. Is it any surprise violent crime is skyrocketing?”
“As everyone in local law enforcement knows, Delaware County always has a higher homicide rate than the other suburban counties,” said Stollsteimer. “In fact, for each of the last 10 years – no matter who was the DA or what their party registration – Delco has reported more homicides than its sister suburbs.”
Stefanide-Miscichowski, however, said it is time for solutions, not excuses.
“Mark my words – if change does not come soon, Delco will be a shell of what we have always known it to be – a safe place to own a home, raise your family, and thrive in a community. On November 7th, we must vote like our lives and the lives of those we love depend on it. They do. Vote for your neighbor who had their house broken into. Vote for your coworker who had their car stolen. Vote for the coffee shop you visit every morning that was robbed. Vote for the teenager in Upper Darby who was murdered earlier this year and whose killer still remains at large.
“A vote for all of them is a vote for the leadership and accountability I will bring to the Delaware County DA’s office on my very first day in office. The time for change is now,” she said.
After a surge in suburban crime — including a 130 percent increase in firearms offenses — a group of Bucks County lawmakers led by GOP Sen. Frank Farry are sponsoring legislation to fight back.
“Every day when you turn on the news, those of us in the Philadelphia media market see what’s going on,” said Farry. “You see different and evolving crimes happening in our communities and our neighboring communities. We think it’s our responsibility, as public figures, to step forward and make sure proper statutes are on the books to help the men and women in law enforcement have the tools they need to do their jobs.”
And they had plenty of backup from the local police. About two dozen police representatives from Bucks and Montgomery Counties were on hand at Thursday’s press conference Thursday outside the Northampton Township Police Department to endorse their efforts.
Lawmakers are introducing the bills because of “feedback we’ve heard from law enforcement, feedback we’ve heard from victims, feedback from our communities, and feedback we’ve heard from prosecutors,” said Farry. “We want to ensure that law enforcement has the proper tools in their tool chest to be able to properly charge crimes that will ultimately lead to convictions.”
Warrington Police Chief Daniel Friel, president of the Police Chiefs’ Association of Bucks County, said, “We’ve seen increases in nearly every category of crime that affects the average citizen or business owner. These categories include robbery, burglary, thefts from vehicles, retail thefts, thefts of catalytic converters, and firearms thefts…We have seen a 32 percent increase in thefts from vehicles since last year (and) a 28 percent increase over the average of the past three years. Theft of catalytic converters in Warrington Township is up 85 percent since last year, and again, that’s a 237 percent increase over the past three-year average.”
Perhaps most disturbing, “There’s already a 130 percent increase in firearms offenses, which is an 89 percent increase over the past three years,” said Friel.
And illegal car meetup rallies have become common in Bucks County, overwhelming municipal police forces, he said.
The bills include mandatory jail time for illegally possessing a firearm, cracking down on porch pirates, reducing catalytic converter robberies, increasing penalties for gun store robberies, putting the brakes on vehicle meetup rallies, and enhanced charges for rioters.
Warrington Police Chief Daniel Friel speaks with Bensalem Public Safety Director William McVey, Rep. K.C. Tomlinson (left), and Rep. Kristin Marcell (right).
Bensalem Public Safety Director William McVey called them “common sense.”
“First, mandatory jail time for illegal gun possession is absolutely needed in Pennsylvania,” he said. “In Bensalem, we’ve experienced a 75 percent increase in illegal guns. We’ve seized 174 illegal guns in that timeframe. More distressing is the fact we’ve arrested 21 convicted felons for illegally possessing a firearm this year to date.”
“Without strong penalties, these felons are often released and go back to carrying illegal guns,” he said. “And worse, they use the illegal guns on innocent victims.”
And catalytic converter theft is booming. One Bensalem business had 58 catalytic converters stolen from its fleet of vehicles, which cost more than $100,000 to replace. When officers see someone with a truckload of catalytic converters, they can’t charge them “even when they have no legitimate purpose to carry them.”
“And the car meetups, the drifting, it’s absolutely crazy,” said McVey. “They’ve popped up in our jurisdictions. They overtake areas. They have no regard for anyone’s safety.”
Rep. Kristin Marcell (R-Wrightstown) thanked Farry for shepherding the porch pirates bill, which increases penalties for that type of theft, through the Senate. It awaits passage in the House.
“Especially with the holiday season, where more people are relying on mail-order purchases, it’s more important than ever to protect consumers and to think about how we can help,” she said. She said that stealing boxes from people’s porches is not a victimless crime. For example, it could be medicine ordered by an elderly person that’s stolen.
Afterward, Marcell told DVJournal that Democratic Reps. Joe Ciresi (D-Royersford) and Ed Ne9lson (D-Philadelphia) are also sponsors.
Rep. Joe Hogan (R-Langhorne) said, “What’s happening in our cities right now is a choice. The decline, the prosecutorial decisions, is a choice…to allow violent criminals to be released out on bail to go back and commit more crimes. This morning, I learned that an individual who was picked up in the burglary and the rioting two days ago was released on bail on a murder three charge. (They were) right back out committing more crimes.”
Hogan introduced a bill in response to crooks who robbed a gun store in Langhorne in the middle of the night.
“If you rob a gun store and steal guns, you are going to jail for a mandatory minimum of time,” said Hogan. “We’re going to take that decision away from these prosecutors who are letting our cities fall into chaos, and we’re going to make sure that if that crime is committed, you are going to jail, and you’re going to be there a long time.”
Rep. K.C. Tomlinson (R-Bensalem) said, “Nearly 40 percent of the crime committed in Bensalem is not committed by Bensalem residents but by individuals crossing over the border from Philadelphia. Sadly, the city continues to send a message of tolerance. I stand here today with my colleagues and law enforcement to make our message very clear: Bucks County will not tolerate what’s going on in the city.”
“We will always fight to maintain the quality of life we enjoy here in Bucks County,” Tomlinson said.
“Spare the rod, spoil the child” may not actually be in the Bible, but it was on the mind of Delaware Valley state Sen. Anthony Hardy Williams (D-Delaware/Philadelphia) during a recent podcast interview with DVJournal.
The topic was crime- specifically the rise in violent crime- and as he often does, Williams pointed out that both sides offer incomplete solutions. Defunding the police isn’t a serious approach, he argued, but at the same time, the police aren’t perfect. He pointed to the death of 8-year-old Fanta Bility, unintentionally shot by Sharon Hill police officers, as an example of law enforcement’s need for better training and smarter strategy.
But there is one home-grown remedy, he told DVJournal, that he believes can help prevent crime before it occurs.
A spanking.
“With all due respect, I believe in corporal punishment,” said Williams. “Now, I don’t believe in beating to bleeding and breaking bones and abusing, but spanking somebody in the butt when Johnny’s acting a fool at a public place, and you want to say ‘time out.’ I don’t think it necessarily works,” said Williams.
He also called for parents to be held accountable for their children’s behavior.
“I mean, children driving those three-wheeler vehicles down the street around City Hall at midnight, I don’t know who thinks the police officer should be fixing that, right? That’s a parent problem. So, for me, fundamentally, a lot of stuff goes back to the parents, period.”
“Consistency with punishment is super important, and having firm boundaries. Having consistency with your kids is important, and being able to follow through on consequences. Hitting your kids, spanking, corporal punishment, that serves as a model for aggression and leads kids to be more aggressive,” said Leiter, a clinical psychologist specializing in pediatric behavioral problems.
While “being too lenient is not effective,” she said, neither is “hitting kids.” Parents need to make sure there are consequences, but those consequences should not include spanking.
“The gold standard in behavioral treatment doesn’t include any kind of corporal punishment for kids,” she said.
“This old-school mentality does the opposite,” she said. “Hitting your kids will increase their aggressiveness in the short term.”
Williams said parents need to administer correction via a child’s backside when necessary, but parents also need the community to get their backs.
“Parenting needs to be supported much more significantly than it is,” said Williams. Parents should teach their kids the fundamentals, including respect.
“Let me be clear: when you’re 14, and no one told you that not every police officer is an enemy, but you look at them as such, guess what? You’re going to act accordingly,” said Williams.
“A lot of recklessness that I see today would never have happened in my neighborhood,” said Williams. He grew up in a predominately African American community with “working class folks who had some issues with the police officers, but they knew that, generally speaking, you respected the authority in place.
“Children going to school and acting up, and the teacher is the enemy, and the parent comes up to the teacher and says, ‘You did something to my child.’ When I went to school, If I did something, I was guilty as charged,” Williams said.
“Corporal punishment – or the use of spanking as a disciplinary tool –increases aggression in young children in the long run and is ineffective in teaching a child responsibility and self-control. In fact, new evidence suggests that it may cause harm to the child by affecting normal brain development. Other methods that teach children right from wrong are safer and more effective,” the AAP said in a statement.
Dr. Marion Mass, a Bucks County pediatrician, does not favor spanking but agrees with Williams that children need discipline and guidance and that parents need to step up to provide it. She listed some incidents.
“Somehow, we have gotten to a point where some are letting kids run the show,” Mass said.
“Kids are destructive in the most horrific of ways. Look at the case of slain police officer Fitzgerald at Temple.” Allegedly “gunned down by an 18-year-old carjacking with his younger brother.”
“Remember when 13 and 15-year-old girls carjacked and were responsible for the death of an Uber driver? It’s gone on for a long time,” she said. “In 1994, 10 and 11-year-old boys wouldn’t take ‘no ‘for an answer, and they dropped 5-year-old Eric Morse 14 stories to his death because he refused to steal candy for them.”
Mass added, “It’s in the schools. We saw a 6-year-old bring a gun to school intending to hurt his teacher in Virginia, and more and more teachers are reporting violence. In 2019, there was $1.3 million in damage done to a Central Bucks school. It looked as though it were arson and implications that a juvenile was responsible.”
And “the historic Perkasie covered bridge that was burned down by six young college students in 2004. Those young men tried to set an unsuccessful fire and came back later with a gas can,” said Mass.
“The Perkasie fire of 1988 caused $9 million in damage and destroyed buildings erected in the 1800s. How? Two 12-year-old boys were playing with a lighter, started a fire, then walked away. I think a fire truck melted,” Mass added.
The Rev. Dr. Jerome Coleman, pastor of Salem Baptist Church in Abington, also sees a lack of discipline as a problem and agrees with Williams that spanking is an effective remedy.
“I do agree that the problem with youth today is that parents are not disciplining their children. I don’t think discipline means that you have to spank your children. Discipline comes in many forms, like timeout, taking away cell phone privileges, withholding video games, not giving an allowance, sitting down and talking with your children, etc.,” he said.
“However, I’m not against spanking. What I am against is abuse. There is no factual data to support that spanking a child leads to an abusive child. We have made the mistake of raising our children off of theories and hypotheses, often by people who have never had children,” said Coleman.
“Many parents feel handcuffed by a government who they feel is undermining their authority and gives the benefit of the doubt to children instead of parents,” said Coleman. “A child can receive a spanking, and that child can accuse the parent of abuse, and the parent immediately comes under suspicion. I was in a meeting where a parent said she felt threatened by her teenage son, and the police said there was nothing they could do. But if a child makes the same accusation…”
“The core of why children appear to be so violent, angry, and depressed starts at home and the failure of parents to discipline their children. Discipline is not a curse word. It’s teaching children to obey rules and obey those in authority. It’s correcting misbehavior to improve moral character and ethics so that children can be positive, productive citizens and contribute positively to their families, communities, and society. It’s “training a child up in the way that they should go” (Proverbs 22:6). The National Institutes of Health still says that parents have the greatest influence on their children,” said Coleman.
“When you look at our children’s behavior currently, you can clearly see that at the core, it is a lack of discipline at home,” Coleman added.
Bensalem Police Director William McVey released a strongly worded statement about how lax crime policies in Philadelphia are negatively affecting the suburbs.
McVey said he wanted to support Abington Police Chief Patrick Malloy, who was attacked in The Philadelphia Inquirer when he spoke out about a suspect arrested for trying to kidnap a girl at the Willow Grove mall. Malloy had noted the defendant should have been in jail in Philadelphia, not out in public committing more crimes. Malloy called the incident a “disgrace” and said, “The system failed.”
“Malloy’s frustration is shared by many police chiefs across the region, especially those that border Philadelphia,” said McVey. “Suburban chiefs from the region can provide numerous examples of the effects of bail reform, but the most horrific was that of Corporal James O’Conner, who, while performing his duties as a Philadelphia SWAT Officer, was shot and killed by a suspect with an extremely violent past who remained on the streets. This broken process has to end.”
McVey noted the three things he said hamper the effectiveness of Philadelphia police: The Drivers’ Equity Act, District Attorney Larry Krasner’s policies, and a lack of political leadership.
The Drivers’ Equity Act prevents Philadelphia officers from stopping drivers for minor issues, such as a broken taillight.
“It is common knowledge that criminals travel in vehicles that are unregistered, uninspected, or have equipment violations,” McVey wrote. He said that traffic stops keep roadways safe and often result in arrests for guns, drugs, or on warrants.
In Bensalem, 40 percent of those arrested are Philadelphia residents, up 10 percent from five years ago.
McVey later told DVJournal, “The Driver Equity Act takes away the right of a Philadelphia police officer to stop people for certain specific, what they call ‘minor’ offenses. And what has happened is you have criminals now that just drive without fear. We have seen an increase in the number of convicted felons that we have stopped on our car stops for minor offenses and subsequently located a gun in their car, an illegal gun.” He noted that convicted felons are precluded from owning a gun. “Most of them are from the city of Philadelphia. We’ve had nine of them this past year.”
Mike Chitwood, the retired Upper Darby police superintendent, concurred with McVey’s assessment.
“I agree with him 100 percent,” said Chitwood. “All along the borderline with Philadelphia, these smaller communities, because of crime allowed to occur in Philadelphia. And it expands. I can’t tell you how many times (police) make a car stop and come up with a gun or some other evidence.”
“With the escalating crime, violent crime and shootings and murders in Philadelphia,” McVey said, “the police are your number one tool to combat that, and they’ve taken away some of their tools to combat what. And what happens now is more criminals are driving about freely, and they’re going out in the suburban towns carrying guns, committing crimes.” It has also affected the traffic accident mortality rate across the country as more jurisdictions pass similar laws. It is up 18 percent since 2020, according to NITSA, he added.
“As most people know, minor things lead to serious things, so you can’t just give a free pass. And the other issue is the (Philadelphia) District Attorney’s Office with its bail reform.” He said there is a “striking difference” between bail set in the counties and bail set in Philadelphia for similar crimes.
The other problem in the city is that Krasner has prioritized investigating and prosecuting police officers, McVey noted. That atmosphere has made police less likely to do their jobs proactively, he said.
That has officers leaving the Philadelphia Police Department for other jobs, including in the suburbs.
“We’re seeing a mass exodus (from PPD),” McVey said. “In the last five years, we’ve hired 16 officers out of Philadelphia” who are “doing a phenomenal job.” Bensalem has 106 officers. And many of the officers the city is losing are the best of the best, he said. “I really think the city needs to do something and do something fast to prevent it from getting worse.”
A Philadelphia police spokesman declined to comment about McVey’s remarks.
In Bensalem, the police have the support of Mayor Joe DiGirolamo, “who unapologetically makes public safety public safety his first priority for his township,” McVey wrote. “He not only supports our officers in their duties but encourages our police, by all legal means necessary, to keep our residents safe.”
He also praised Bucks County District Attorney Matt Weintraub, now running for judge, for “holding criminals accountable” and standing “with the men and women in law enforcement.”
“This type of leadership from elected officials certainly leads to a safer community for all,” McVey wrote.
Neither Philadelphia Mayor Jim Kenney’s office nor Krasner’s spokesperson responded to requests for comment.
The 4th of July is a celebration of our country’s founding, a joyous summer holiday. Yet in Philadelphia, it was marred by a gunman who killed five people and wounded others– including two children– the evening before the holiday.
Days later, DelVal residents are still reeling from the senseless act of violence, although there is some comfort that a suspect, Kimbrady Carriker, 40, was arrested and is being held without bail.
At a press conference Wednesday, progressive Philadelphia DA Larry Krasner blamed the state’s gun laws for the carnage.
“Finally, I just want to say this: it is disgusting, the lack of proper gun legislation that we have in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania,” Krasner said. “It is disgusting that you can go to New Jersey and find a whole list of reasonable gun regulation that we don’t have, that you can go to Delaware, and there’s almost as long a list of reasonable gun legislation that we don’t have,”
The DVJournal asked some former prosecutors for their thoughts.
Former U.S. Attorney William McSwain said, “The appalling violence that we’ve seen in Philadelphia – including the mass shooting this past Monday – will stop only once our city leaders, especially the DA and the mayor, stop pretending that anybody other than the criminal is responsible for a heinous criminal act. It is not the fault of the state legislature for not enacting the DA’s and the Mayor’s preferred progressive policies.
“It is not the fault of society. There is never, ever any justification for walking up to somebody and shooting them in the head. What we need in Philadelphia is deterrence and serious punishment for crime. Crime will be deterred only when there are serious consequences for it. By consistently making excuses for criminals, our city leaders have led us down a destructive path. This is rooted in fantasy. Our city deserves better,” McSwain said.
Bruce L. Castor Jr., former Montgomery County DA, now a plaintiff’s attorney, said, “I represent the 13-year-old boy shot in the lower legs (allegedly by Carriker). From a civil perspective, we are evaluating the conflicting statements concerning whether the killer was a transsexual. I am interested to know if this is a person transitioning, whether he was properly evaluated for mental health side-effects to the procedure, and correctly counseled concerning the effects transition therapy might affect him and his thinking.”
“From a criminal perspective, it appears the police and DA have charged him such that the death penalty ought to apply–though I am aware that is no longer in vogue since the days when I did those cases,” Castor added.
Gov. Josh Shapiro, a Democrat, has stated that he will not sign warrants to enforce the death penalty.
Rep. Craig Williams (R-Chadds Ford) called the shooting “an absolute tragedy.”
“The answer of the district attorney, along with the mayor, was to go to the camera and blame Harrisburg for not having passed enough gun reforms. In answer to that the Democrats this week ran a bill that would have taxed every single purchase of a firearm and taxed every single application for a concealed carry permit to pay for street lighting in Philadelphia…Their answer to people being murdered in Philadelphia with firearms is to tax law abiding citizens who are doing nothing wrong, not even living in Philadelphia, to pay for more street lights in Philadelphia.”
Williams offered and amendment to that bill to fund a gun violence tax force with the Attorney General’s Office to prosecute gun crimes and the U.S. Attorney’s office to the DA’s office “and actually go after criminals.”
“If you want to fight back you’re going to have to carry the fight to the streets by way of prosecution,” said Williams. Williams served as chief prosecutor for the largest base in the Marine Corps. He also served as deputy legal counsel to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. He later served as a federal prosecutor with the Department of Justice and was also a prosecutor for the Joint Terrorism Task Force.
Joe McGettigan, who has served as first assistant DA for Delaware County and Philadelphia, as well as chief deputy in the Attorney General’s Office, also pointed to a too-liberal justice system.
“Of course, this tragic event, committed by an obvious lunatic, will bring a hue and cry from the usual political actors. They will denounce ‘mass shootings’ and ‘gun violence’ and call for more ‘common sense’ gun laws, etc., apparently blithely unaware that most laws, common sense or otherwise, are not a great impediment to the lunatic fringe or those who profit from commerce with them,” said McGettigan.
He added, “And mass shootings make up a fraction of deaths by shooting. Now some serious incarceration for those who illegally traffic in guns or who use them, even juveniles, well, that might help. But fear of being accused of calling for mass incarceration, or worse, prevents those sorts of commonsense measures from being implemented.
“Perhaps the lengthy separation of the criminally violent from their innocent prey might help the situation, but I’m not holding my breath waiting for the enlightenment of the progressives. Until that unlikely awakening, prepare for more violence, followed by more rhetoric,” he said.
“Good luck, and protect yourself at all times,” McGettigan warned.
Crime rose by double-digit percentages in Delaware, Montgomery, and Bucks counties from 2021 to 2022 with the largest increases coming in property crimes like burglary, larceny, and motor vehicle theft, according to data from the Pennsylvania Uniform Crime Reporting System (UCR) website.
Chester County, which does not share a border with Philadelphia, was the only “collar county” bucking that trend. There were decreases in nearly every category but one.
The statistics represent one of the most definable contours placed on the otherwise uneasy and oftentimes fuzzy notion driven by anecdotes that an urban crime spike in the summer of 2020 is spilling over beyond the Philadelphia city limits, impacting smaller communities not normally affected by assaults or thefts.
Larceny (generally defined as theft of personal property) and auto thefts in particular are both showing large increases in the collar counties that match large increases in Philadelphia.
Taking the four counties combined, auto thefts climbed from 2,302 in 2021 to 2,834 in 2022, an increase of 23 percent.
Those figures compare to a dramatic spike in auto thefts in Philadelphia. In 2022, the city reached a two-decade-long high of 14,533 car thefts, up from 11,341 in 2021. This year, however, the city is set to blow past both of those figures, as the current trend shows Philadelphia will likely surpass 20,000 car thefts in 2023.
As stark as the increase in auto thefts seems, the percentage increase in larceny in the four counties eclipsed even that.
In 2021, the four counties totaled 23,690 incidents of larceny, which rose to 30,496 by 2022 — an increase of 28 percent. Larceny was the one category in Chester County showing a year-over-year increase.
Burglaries were up 32, 24, and seventeen percent in Bucks, Delaware, and Montgomery, respectively from 2021 to ‘22.
Three categories did show decreases. Reported incidents of rape were down four percent. Aggravated assaults were down ten percent, and arson was down sixteen percent.
When adding all the categories together, the number of total incidents reported across the four counties was up twenty percent.
Comparing the numbers against the rest of the state appears to show that most of these increases are concentrated in Southeast Pennsylvania.
For example, taking statewide data that subtracts Philadelphia and the four collar counties shows larcenies were up fourteen percent in the remainder of the commonwealth. In the four collar counties, larcenies were up twice that rate, at 28 percent.
The data also appear to show that the skyrocketing auto theft trend is also primarily a southeastern phenomenon.
While motor vehicle thefts are up 40 and 23 percent in Philadelphia and the collar counties, respectively, they are only up five percent in the rest of the commonwealth.
Burglaries were mostly flat in the rest of the state from ‘21 to ‘22. However, burglaries were up nineteen and ten percent in the collar counties and Philadelphia, respectively.
Broad + Liberty’s requests for comment to the district attorneys in the four suburb counties were not returned. (Montgomery and Chester counties acknowledged receiving the questions and appeared ready to engage at first, then stopped communicating.)
Of the four incumbent district attorneys in the collar counties, only Jack Stollsteimer (D) in Delaware County faces a re-election battle, running against Republican Beth Stefanide Miscichowski. Chester County District Attorney Deb Ryan (D) is not running for re-election this year, opting to run for a judgeship instead. Kevin Steele (D) in Montgomery County is running unopposed. And the district attorney office is not on the ballot this year in Bucks, but Weintraub is also running for a judgeship.
Many of the incumbent district attorneys have claimed success in battling gun crimes, something not directly addressed by the statistics in the Pennsylvania UCR.
On his re-election website, Montgomery’s Steele said his office had “strategically focused on: A) homicides; B) illegal guns on our streets: ghost guns and gun traffickers putting deadly weapons in the hands of criminals; C) drug traffickers who are killing people by peddling their deadly poisons like fentanyl and other drugs; and D) those who cause harm to women and children.”
In Bucks County, Weintraub said in October: “One trend we’re seeing across the state is younger and younger people, especially minors, are the population rising the quickest [for] carrying firearms.”
In January, Delco DA Stollsteimer wrote an op-ed promoting what he perceived as the greatest successes in his tenure.
“We have reduced the gun violence homicide rate in the City of Chester by 60 percent and the overall number of gun violence incidents by 46 percent,” Stollsteimer wrote. The only other measurement he provided in the piece was to say, “Through collaboration and innovation, my team has spearheaded a 30 percent reduction in the prison population here in Delaware County.”
Delaware County Council Member Kevin Madden asserted that a two-year drop in crime supported the collaborative push with Stollsteimer to drastically reduce the number of persons incarcerated at the county correctional facility, and the length of those stays.
“In 2020, [the county prison] population was nearly 1,900,” Madden said. “It’s really down by 35 percent in two years. That’s extraordinary. Our crime rates are lower than they were two years ago.”
Data from the UCR don’t support his assertion, however, at least in the most recent years and especially the ones in which the county’s management takeover of the correctional facility has coincided with the decarceration effort.
Arrests and prosecutions were notably lower in 2020 because of the pandemic. Therefore, when using the last non-pandemic year and measuring Delaware County’s total recorded incidents from 2019 to 2022, total incidents increased by ten percent. But to take Madden literally by comparing 2022 to 2020, total incidents were up 30 percent.
A request for comment to Madden on this issue was not returned.
In Chester County, the candidates are debating the extent to which crime trends have shifted in the county.
“In the last few years, you’ve seen crime in Philadelphia starting to creep out more and more into the counties. And it’s not just Philadelphia; it’s Wilmington,” Republican candidate Ryan Hyde said. “I talked to a narcotics (officer) the other day in Kennett Square, who told me most of the drugs in the lower part of the county are now coming up through Wilmington. And I know a lot of stuff is coming through Baltimore.”
Democrat candidate Chris de Barrena-Sarobe disagreed.
“But if you look at studies, crime is down across the board,” said de Barrena-Sarobe. “I don’t think there’s been a homicide in Chester County all year…My perception is there is no significant change in crime in Chester County.”
Both can claim to be correct, according to the statistics. Hyde’s assertion that Philadelphia crime is creeping out into the counties appears to be correct, even though Chester has been spared the brunt of the increase. Data for 2023 in Chester County shows there has been one offense tallied for murder/non-negligent manslaughter.
The most political change on crime in southeast Pennsylvania arguably landed last week, when Philadelphia Democrats chose former state representative and city councilor Cherelle Parker as the party nominee for mayor. Given the lopsided registration advantage Democrats enjoy in the city, Parker’s election as mayor in November against Republican David Oh seems a fait accompli.
“Parker’s path to victory was never guaranteed, but it was powered by Black and Latino voters — particularly residents of the poor and low-income neighborhoods hardest hit by the city’s gun violence crisis,” an Inquirerreport noted. “Areas with the highest concentrations of shootings, particularly parts of North and West Philadelphia, handed Parker roughly half their votes in a field with five top contenders, an Inquirer analysis showed.”
A major plank of the Parker campaign was bolstering Philadelphia’s police ranks, worn down by the attrition of retirements and quittings, both of which seemed to accelerate in the heightened scrutiny of the post-George Floyd era that ushered in the #DefundThePolice movement.
Meanwhile, many municipal police leaders, police unions, and locally elected Republicans have been sounding the alarm for more than a year.
The House Republican Policy Committee (which is not an official committee within the General Assembly, but is a mechanism both parties use to discuss issues with various stakeholders which informs the drafting of legislation) has held two hearings on crime or public safety recently, one in early May, and the other in October.
In both cases, police officials, union leaders, and district attorneys pointed the finger — with varying degrees of subtlety — at Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner, accusing him of fostering a region-wide culture that committing serious crimes was consequence-free.
In the October hearing, Bensalem Public Safety Director William “Bill” McVey did not mince words when claiming Krasner’s policies in Philadelphia were impacting the crimes in his township.
“This is an ongoing problem with the Philadelphia District Attorney’s Office. The District Attorney’s Office of Philadelphia has also decriminalized retail theft if it’s under $500. This has had a devastating impact not only on Philadelphia, but on all surrounding municipalities. In Bensalem, retail theft is up 29 percent this year, and that’s after Macy’s is closed, Sears is closed, and K-Mart has closed — stores that typically had the most retail thefts in our township.”
At the same meeting, Bucks County District Attorney Matt Weintraub echoed those ideas, but was more circumspect about naming Krasner.
“The bottom line is the criminals don’t know the boundaries — they don’t know and don’t care about the boundaries between some lawless areas of the state, and some others that may be more law abiding,” Weintraub said.
The same themes were heard at the more recent hearing by the House Republican Policy Committee this May.
A request for comment on those ideas to the Philadelphia district attorney’s office was not returned.
Reporting on crime has long been a thorny issue because statistics can be hard to gather and standardize. That’s no different for the Pennsylvania UCR as the accuracy of the data is difficult to determine.
The Pennsylvania State Police, which maintain the website that smaller law enforcement agencies contribute their data to, says on the website, “The accuracy of the statistics depends primarily on the adherence of each contributor on established standards of reporting; therefore, it is the responsibility of each contributor to submit accurate data and to correct any data found to be submitted in error. It is important to note that participation in the program by law enforcement agencies is voluntary.”
Broad + Liberty’s own reporting has called the data into question before. Last August, we reported that Upper Darby’s police department was underreporting homicides to the UCR, something the township’s police appeared to remedy after our article was published.
Among the many questions sent by Broad + Liberty to the local district attorneys in the collar counties was asking the degree of faith each DA had in the UCR as an indicator of crime trends in their jurisdiction.
Comprehensive crime reports by the Federal Bureau of Investigations used to be relied upon heavily by governments and the media, but have faltered recently as more major cities across the U.S. have stopped participating. Those reports also lag by well over a year, thereby making them less useful as a real-time tool for law enforcement agencies and policy makers.
How can we keep young people prone to getting into trouble out of jail yet also live in a safe society?
Two experts discussed restorative justice with the Pennsylvania House Republican Policy Committee Monday at a hearing in the Concord Township Building.
Rep. Craig Willaims (R-Chadds Ford) enlisted panelists Greg Volz and Liam Power to discuss juvenile justice.
Volz, director of Youth Courts and a criminal justice instructor at Harcum College, said the goal is for kids to become good citizens and to shut down the “school-to-prison pipeline.”
He has run Youth Courts in the Chester Upland School District, Norristown Area High School, and many others.
The Youth Courts can keep students from being expelled or suspended and also keep them from entering the criminal justice system. He wants to see more Youth Courts in the justice system and schools.
He said that kids as young as fifth grade can get involved in Youth Courts, where the youngsters decide on their peers’ guilt and punishment. While Volz has set up Youth Courts at many area high schools, younger kids are often ideal candidates for the Youth Courts, he said.
“They’re still optimistic, excited to learn about the law,” he said.
Power currently chairs the Education Task Force for the state Office of Advocacy and Reform and spoke about the trauma-informed Pennsylvania plan.
Power said his task force has been working to prevent the school-to-prison pipeline through restorative practices, thereby preventing young people from getting involved in more serious crimes.
He said the COVID-19 pandemic increased preexisting trends of retirements of educators, mental health experts, counselors, and others, creating an increasing demand for these professions coupled with workforce shortages. He said these factors have made kids more likely to be involved in the juvenile justice system.
“Mental health is directly correlated with criminal justice involvement,” said Power. “With 1 in 4 people with a mental health condition being arrested in their lifetime. And 7 in 10 youth in the juvenile justice system, having a diagnosed mental health condition.”
A multifaceted approach is needed, including restorative practices and trauma-informed practices.
He said that youth courts can create empathy with law enforcement if they are involved.
Restorative practices also improve situations and reduce the criminal justice system’s involvement. A workforce development program can also help and provide people with the skills to earn “family-sustaining wages,” he said.
While Power did not go into detail about restorative justice practices, according to the Annie E. Casey Foundation, those programs use trained facilitators to bring the “responsible party” and the “harmed party” together with family and community members to “determine the appropriate response” and repair the damage.
“We need to fund off-ramps from the school-to-prison pipeline,” said Power. People are beginning to understand the effect of trauma on children.
Williams said he lost his brother to addiction in 2020. He said he would ask him why he couldn’t stop (using drugs). But that was the wrong question.
Later, he visited the George Hill Correctional Facility. Williams asked inmates going through drug rehab if they remembered the day they began to use. One told him the right question would be if he remembered the day his mother’s boyfriend sexually assaulted him.
“Since then, I’ve thought many times what it was (that) my brother went through,” he said. “I never asked that question, and I wish I had that opportunity back.”
“This idea of trauma-informed care, as I’ve become more and more an advocate for it locally, with our institutions, trying to bring it here,” said Willaims.
“How do we help a young man (because, more often than not, it’s young boys) understand his ‘why’ for his behavior? If we can help him or her get to their ‘why,’ maybe they can cure the behavior.”
“We need to provide off-ramps,” he said. “And I think that’s where we can be as a matter of statewide policy, which is absolutely rigid in our enforcement of the law, cracking down on crime and still providing off-ramps. We can hold those two thoughts simultaneously, protecting our community and helping people reform or restore, helping them understand their why.”
Power said, “Trauma-informed care and accountability do go hand in hand and are mutually inclusive in that respect. We must live in a place with accountability. We must enforce laws. But where trauma or past experiences create roadblocks in the minds of youth, the only way out of that, the only path forward is through building trust.”
He added, “We have to take the time, we have to see, we have to be human, we have to share sometimes of ourselves and be prepared to be vulnerable. When a youth trusts you, they will begin to believe you’re there to help them. And when they finally feel that sense of safety…everything will come through the way it needs to…Trust is the underpinning of this entire process from beginning to end.”
Why should suburban residents care about Philadelphia’s next mayor?
David Oh, a Republican running for Philadelphia mayor, said spreading crime is one reason. Economics is another. The city remains the major economic force in the area, and what happens in Philly ripples through the entire Delaware Valley.
“Philadelphia is a very important economic engine for this state, and it most dramatically impacts our surrounding counties. And for people in the suburbs, they oftentimes…experience the ability to enjoy a suburban lifestyle and yet go to the Eagles game, go to live entertainment in the city, go see the museums, enjoy what’s there in a big city while living, in a nice suburban setting,” said Oh, a lawyer who grew up in Philadelphia and served on the city council until stepping down to run for mayor.
“Unfortunately, they probably are not going take public transportation into the city like they used to, or they may not even drive into the city. It’s very difficult to have such a great amenity for them as universities and research and hospitals and all that great stuff in our city that you cannot visit and go out to dinner and things like that.”
“The other thing is that the crime in our city impacts our surrounding communities. One, unfortunately, crime imitates crime. People out in the counties start seeing the things that are happening in Philadelphia, and they emulate it.
“They also come into our city, and unfortunately, so many people who are addicted to heroin and things like that end up not just coming to our city but living here for years at a time (with) their parents and their loved ones trying to find them.”
“They’re only attracted to Philadelphia because we have the most hands-off policy where drug-addicted people end up in the most inhumane conditions on Kensington Avenue because of the policies of the city. That is to let them purchase their drugs, to let the drug dealers exist. And, by the way, the drug dealers (are) murdering each other because of so much money that is there,” said Oh.
Paul Martino, a Bucks County resident and owner of the new Philadelphia sports bar Bankroll, agrees that crime is a major problem for the city.
“Crime is one the primary issues facing the city of Philadelphia. Many suburbanites refuse to come to the city to visit its businesses, historical and cultural locations as a result. This is why people from Bucks and Montco are following this year’s Philly mayor’s race much more closely than prior years,” said Martino.
Jeff Jubelirer, vice president of Bellevue Communications, said, “What happens in Philly affects everyone in the region, albeit in different ways. When suburbanites have a negative perception of Philadelphia – whether fair or not – the implications are tangible.
“They work, play, and visit the city, and their tax dollars and spending contribute to its betterment. Therefore, engendering confidence among suburbanites constitutes a critical task for Philadelphia’s next mayor,” Jubelirer said.
Guy Ciarrocchi, former president of the Chester County Chamber of Business and Industry and a former Congressional candidate, likes Oh.
“He’s a good guy. Has really grown into his role—understands issues, how government works (and doesn’t) and focuses on people, not grandiose policies or ideology,” said Ciarrocchi, who grew up in South Philadelphia.
“We care not just in a good government or humanitarian way like I hope the drought in Sudan ends, because it impacts our quality of life,” Ciarrocchi said. “It affects the growth of our economy—the companies that support and interact with major Philadelphia companies. And bad economics, bad schools and rising crime eventually come into the bedroom communities of the suburbs.”
“And, its also about our overall quality of life—from the zoo to the Franklin Institute, from the orchestra to the stadiums—as traveling to an annoying Philadelphia is a part of the reason many of us live in the suburbs—a car ride or train ride away.
“A growing, vibrant Philadelphia helps our economy and quality of life, A shrinking, decaying Philadelphia does the opposite.
“David can help by winning—or, at a minimum, being the grown-up and the kitchen-table candidate making sure that the campaign is about fighting crime, having good schools and helping businesses create jobs, rather than focusing on plastic straws and defunding the police,” said Ciarrocchi.
Albert Eisenberg, a political consultant and founder of BlueStateRed, also believes that Philadelphia and its mayor are important to the health of the suburbs.
“Suburban voters, and voters from across the state, should care very much who is elected mayor of Philadelphia,” said Eisenberg. “The city is the economic and cultural driver for our entire state, and with issues like crime spilling over the city line, higher taxes on business owners, and building a city and region that people actually want to move to, that will affect regular people in the collar counties as well. People should keep a close eye on David Oh and his campaign for mayor, especially with some very far-Left candidates with the potential to come out of the Democratic Primary in May.
Joyce Koh, of Bala Cynwyd, donated to Oh’s campaign. She believes a vibrant Philadelphia is with its diversity of arts, culture and food is “vital” to the suburbs.
“The city is like the warmth of the the sun,” Koh said. “If our sun is dying, our suburbs will fail.”
Mark Ruhl, a Chester County resident who supports Oh, said, “What goes on in the city affects the suburbs. We used to go into the city more but we stopped going in because we don’t feel safe any more.”
“And then we see, for example, when, when the lawlessness goes from Philadelphia out into the suburban areas, carjackings, you know, all kinds of shootings,” said Oh. “The thing about the crime today is it is traveling, traveling from the neighborhoods where it used to be contained, into Center City, into some of the nicer neighborhoods of Philadelphia and out into the suburban areas.
“We really need to stop that because the thing is, we have to stop the next generation and the following generation of violent criminals that is being created here in Philadelphia, because of really bad policies,” Oh said.
People shake their heads and ask, where are the parents? But the better question might be: Where are the fathers?
Rafael Mangual, head of research, policing, and public safety for The Manhattan Institute, a free market think tank, told DVJournal data reveals that having a father in their early childhood is key for boys to grow up to be productive, law-abiding people.
But the number of single-parent households, with the mother usually at the helm, keeps growing.
Mangual said, “There is a very clear association between the incidents of out-of-wedlock childbirth and delinquency and criminality in males.”
Two-parent households are “an institution whose primary path is raising and socializing children. Early childhood development is critically important.”
“One of the things the literature tells us is that when you have young boys around the ages of 5 to 7 who have developed conduct disorders, that becomes relatively predictive of future criminality in adolescents.”
But he cautioned, “The majority of those kids will turn out just fine. Those conduct disorders will get resolved either through psychological intervention or the passage of time.”
However, a. good portion of boys will develop conduct disorders that metastasize to anti-social dispositions, he said.
“One of the things we see in prison settings is a much higher rate of psychological conditions like substance abuse disorders or anti-social personality disorder” in men raised by single mothers, said Mangual.
Mangual noted that in the general population of men in the U.S., anti-social personality disorder affects between 2 and 4 percent. Depending on the facility, it is between 40 to 70 percent of men in prisons, a “massive disparity.”
The Pennsylvania Juvenile Court Judges’ Commission suggests being raised by a single parent predicts juvenile crime. In 2021, more than 80 percent of every youth in juvenile court lived in a single-parent household.
Of those, about 48 percent lived with a single mother. And 15.5 percent lived with both their parents.
Michael Chitwood, retired Upper Darby police superintendent and former Philadelphia detective, said he had observed the phenomenon during his years in law enforcement.
“Without a father figure or male figure in their lives, they don’t listen,” Chitwood said. “Fathers hold them accountable.” He saw “over and over” when investigating homicides or other serious crimes, “more often than not, it was one-parent families for those who committed serious crimes.”
“It’s a sad trend,” Chitwood said.
Mangual said, “It doesn’t just come out of the blue. It often starts in early childhood. That suggests a high incidence of out-of-wedlock birth, and high rates of single-parent homes in which fathers are absent means that you are increasing the likelihood of the socialization process breaking down in early childhood.”
In Pennsylvania, 35 percent of children are raised in single-parent households, and in the U.S., single-parent family numbers have been rising since the 1950s and now stand at 34 percent.
The towns with the most single-parent families headed by women in the Delaware Valley are Bensalem in Bucks County, Pottstown in Chester County, Norristown in Montgomery County, and Upper Darby in Delaware County, according to the estimated U.S. Census five-year report.
Asked whether having other male role models like uncles or clergy can mitigate the lack of a father in a boy’s life, Mangual said, “There is some research that supports that. Neighborhoods with higher rates of potential role models have lower rates of crime. The problem is the difference between an uncle, or a pastor, or a teacher, and a father is, the father is in an ideal situation. He is going to be there all the time and will be there for those really important moments.”
Asked about how fatherless girls fare, Mangual said they are more likely to engage in self-harm, like eating disorders or other psychological disorders, rather than turn to crime and violence.
Mangual said anti-social personality disorder “is a lack of remorse, a lack of regard for future consequences, a lack of regard for other people, a very high sense of entitlement (in the clinical sense).”
What can be done to reverse the single-parent trend?
Mangual said it is more complicated than just encouraging couples to stay together. While, generally, two parents are better than one, “If one or both of those parents can be characterized by a history of anti-social behavior, then that can actually negate the benefits of two parents. Kids who have one parent might be better off if one of those two parents is anti-social in their disposition.”
And Mangual said he believes this “cultural and social” problem needs to be solved by society, not the government.
Although, “to the extent that welfare policy penalizes marriage or cohabitation between parents, there’s some cases where a family might lose benefits if a mother and father get married. That’s certainly something the government can look to change.”
