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Delaware Valley Voters Swing Statewide Elections

More people reside in Philadelphia and its surrounding suburbs—the Delaware Valley—than in other areas of the state.

Since 1952, Philadelphia has been a Democratic stronghold. In recent years, the suburbs, one by one, have fallen under Democratic control.

However, with the advent of President Donald Trump’s campaigns–winning Pennsylvania in 2016 and 2024–Chester, Montgomery and Delaware counties look more purple than blue. And Trump won Bucks County, which now has more registered Republicans than Democrats.

“Southeastern Pennsylvania represents about 40 percent of Pennsylvania,” said Guy Ciarrocchi, a Republican commentator who ran for Congress in Chester County. “Of course, it matters to the GOP. In 2024, their numbers grew in Philly and every county—with Trump and the statewide row officers carrying Bucks. Trump has charted a diverse, growing block of voters in Philly—working-class families and parents. And the whole ticket grew even higher in the suburbs. [Sen. Dave] McCormick and the GOP will now be fighting to win.”

Pat Poprik, Bucks County Republican chair, said the five counties in southeastern Pennsylvania accounted for 24 percent of the vote out of 67 Pennsylvania counties for the three statewide row offices: treasurer, attorney general and auditor general.

“I was surprised,” said Poprik. “That’s pretty impressive.”

Delaware County GOP Chairman Frank Agovino told DVJournal in a recent podcast, “In regards to the election, when the dust settled, we moved four or five more points to the right. President Trump did about that much better this time around than compared to 2020. Sen. McCormick was around the same place…We saw in a lot of precincts, a double-digit improvement.

“At the end of the day, this is where the votes are,” said Agovino. “All the smaller counties added up have done well, especially in the western part, central part of the state, but McCormick, [Treasurer] Stacy Garrity, [Attorney General] Dave Sunday, they did spend an inordinate amount of time, a lot of time, in the southeast, especially Delaware County.  The reality was they knew they weren’t going to get 51 percent of the vote here. But they needed to do better because a five percent improvement here is gold.”

McCormick beat incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey Jr. by 15,000 votes, Agovino noted.

“If Delaware County doesn’t track four or five points to the right, unfortunately, we’re talking about Sen. Casey again,” said Agovino.

Montgomery County Republican Chair Christian Nascimento agreed.

“It’s critically important to win local elections, and as we saw in 2024, turnout and registration in the southeast are an important component for statewide victories for Republicans.”

Dr. Raffi Terzian, chair of the Chester County GOP, said, “The suburban counties play an important role in helping Republicans secure statewide victories, with each vote here bolstering the overall result. The registration gap between Democrats and Republicans has narrowed significantly, and in the most recent election cycle, President Trump made strides in the collar counties, even winning Bucks County. It is clear that we have momentum, and we will continue to make inroads in voter registration and voter engagement.”

Albert Eisenberg, principal with BlueStateRed, said, “As they say in politics, victory has one thousand fathers. In discussing not just Trump’s convincing flip of Pennsylvania but Dave McCormick’s 16,000-vote statewide margin, you can look to the Philadelphia suburbs, as well as the city itself, where Trump won over 20 percent of the vote, the first Republican presidential candidate to do so this century.

“Between working and middle-class suburbanites trending right due to inflationary pressures, Jewish voters especially in Montgomery County shifting Republican, and more diverse areas of the suburbs shifting right as well, the ultimate vote shift amounted to death by 1,000 cuts for Kamala Harris and Bob Casey,” said Eisenberg.

Agovino said he’s told the state party leadership it needs to invest in the Delaware Valley.

They “need a plan for the southeast. We need to get stronger here. We need to continue our registration initiatives. It’s a digital world now, and we need to operate more in that world…We need help here in the southeast to get stronger because if we continue to improve, we’ll win a lot of elections.”