Could a ‘Safe’ Democratic House Seat Flip to the GOP?

With President Donald Trump’s popularity among working-class voters, could a Republican win a special election to fill an Allegheny County seat?
The recent death of Rep. Matt Gergely in state House District 35 leaves the lower chamber evenly split at 101-101. Speaker Joanna McClinton (D-Philadelphia) has scheduled a special election for March 25.
“I’m heartbroken by Rep. Gergely’s untimely passing and am praying for his family and community,” said McClinton. “Matt was foremost a loving father and husband, and my heart aches for his family’s loss. He was also a thoughtful, well-liked, and respected member of our legislature who was deeply committed to serving his neighbors.
“He was a lifelong public servant in his beloved hometown of McKeesport before being elected to the state House, where he leaves a legacy as a champion for Pennsylvania’s working families and children. He will be missed by our caucus and all who had the opportunity to know and work alongside him,” said McClinton.
Gergely was a popular incumbent and Republicans didn’t challenge him in November. But his district is in the heart of the Mon Valley, long known for the steel industry and the blue-collar workers employed by it.
In fact, the classic movie “The Deer Hunter” — the story of three working-class friends sent to fight in Vietnam — is set in the city of Clairton, in the 35th District. (None of the movie was filmed there, however.)
Though it’s a traditionally Democratic outpost, it’s a part of Pennsylvania where Trump’s vision of the Republican Party has proven popular. Is it popular enough to flip this seat — and control of the Pennsylvania House?
“It’s a steep hill to climb, said GOP strategist Charlie Gerow, “but the Trump factor is certainly a boost along the way.”
What makes the hill so steep is the Republican voter registration deficit in Allegheny County. There are 503,080 Democrats to only 265,780 Republicans on the voter rolls, according to state records.
TJ Rooney, a Democratic consultant, believes the seat will remain in Democratic control.
“In spite of Trump’s inroads in that general geography, the House Democrats will be overwhelming favorites to retain the seat,” said Rooney.
House Republican leaders released this statement: “We join in grieving the loss of our friend and colleague, Rep. Matt Gergely. Matt left behind a young family, and we send them our condolences, as well as our thoughts and prayers.”
Gergely was elected to the House in 2023 to represent the 35th Legislative District in Allegheny County. He was reelected in November 2024. He sponsored several bills, including legislation to protect plasma donated throughout Pennsylvania, as well as legislation to help liquor-licensed establishments address staffing needs and increase financial stability. Both bills passed the legislature and were signed into law by Gov. Josh Shapiro last year.
Gergely’s offices in McKeesport, Munhall and Clairton will remain open and fully staffed.