DV Journal

In 10 short months, presidential caucus-goers in Iowa will fire the official starting pistol on the 2024 race for the White House. For Republicans hoping to challenge the party’s standard-bearer for the nomination, though, it may already be too late.

The indictment of former president Donald Trump by a Manhattan grand jury has catapulted him to the top of the polls, rallying his supporters and swamping him in campaign donations. Trump raked in more than $4 million in donations within 24 hours of the indictment. He couldn’t have scripted a better recharge for his flagging third attempt at a second term.

Trump’s appeal to voters has always relied on portraying himself as a victim of a progressive left determined to silence him. As such, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, a Democrat, played right into Trump’s hands by delivering what, by most assessments, is a weak case that the former president violated campaign finance law during the 2016 campaign.

Winning the sympathy vote isn’t the same as winning the White House. That requires earning a majority of the vote in the general election, something Republicans haven’t done in the last four presidential contests.

Trump’s superpower has always been his ability to endure circumstances that would make others cringe. It’s one of the reasons his base adores him. Yet, even under the favorable conditions presented by the Electoral College, a Trump win in 2024 is, at best, a roll of the dice.

This week revealed that few Republican hopefuls can rival the former president’s popularity with the party’s base.

Polling after the indictment showed Trump leading the pack of Republican nomination hopefuls with 47 percent of support among Republican and Republican-leaning voters. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, with 33 percent support, was the only Republican who presented a serious challenge. Everyone else was in single digits.

DeSantis hasn’t officially entered the race, but few doubt his intention once the Florida legislative session wraps in May. Far from being scared off by his second-place finish, DeSantis’ showing only bolsters the case for his candidacy.

Any candidate under indictment undoubtedly faces longer odds of winning the general election. There are also the investigations into Trump’s handling of classified documents and the grand jury inquiry into election tampering accusations in Georgia that have yet to play out.

At some point, Republicans must choose the candidate with the best chance of taking back the White House, which means expanding the party’s current coalition. If the GOP base isn’t interested in winning the election that counts, what’s the point of being a party?

DeSantis offers Republicans an alternative with similar appeal among Trump’s populist base but without the legal minefield. He’s also a winner, sweeping into power in 2020 with a majority and long coattails that gave Florida Republicans a trifecta over the levers of power in the state.

Trump and DeSantis share a few similarities in policy, and they have a pugilist’s willingness to throw a punch, but they differ significantly in style. While Trump was playing the victim on social media this week, DeSantis was busy governing the third-most-populous state in the nation.

DeSantis has drawn criticism for appearing aloof and detached from the baby-kissing and glad-handing required on the national campaign trail. Still, he is free of the gaffs and grievance politics that define Trump.

DeSantis has established a solid following among GOP donors, too. The DeSantis-aligned Never Back Down super PAC raised $30 million last month. DeSantis also has $82 million in his state political committee, which could be transferred to Never Back Down or another entity supporting him when DeSantis announces.

Trump caught lightning in a bottle in 2016. His surprise victory over Hillary Clinton redefined presidential politics and shook up a staid GOP. Since then, though, his record has been defined by one disappointment after another. From losing the White House to Joe Biden in 2020 to not one but two Senate races in Georgia to the political fallout from January 6 to this week’s indictment in New York, the Republican Party under Trump has struggled to regain its mojo. Republican primary voters must decide which of the two candidates can go the distance and accomplish their conservative policy priorities.

Do Republicans want to cut the deficit, strengthen the border, and win the global competition with China or settle old scores and “own the libs”? There may not be a consensus on the answer to that question today, but Republicans need to decide soon. One thing is sure; the GOP can’t afford to spend another cycle looking backward and arguing over the outcome of the 2020 election.

I’m a lifelong conservative likely to support the candidate who wins the GOP nomination regardless. That said, voting for a winner this time would be nice.

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National Democrats are vowing to advance party control throughout the U.S. in 2024 by targeting what they say are “vulnerable GOP chambers” in state legislatures around the country. On their list:

Pennsylvania’s Senate.

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee said in a recent statement that it plans to “harness [the] momentum” of the party’s 2022 victories and “mount competitive challenges in vulnerable GOP chambers that we have an opportunity to take back.”

The DLCC vowed in its statement to both protect its recently won majority in the Pennsylvania House of Representatives and flip control of the Pennsylvania Senate from the GOP.

Trevor Southerland, the executive director of the Pennsylvania House Democratic Campaign Committee, admitted the Democratic Party’s 2022 results in the state House “surprised some people.” In that election, Democrats gained control of the lower chamber for the first time in 12 years.

“I think everybody thought we would pick up seats,” Southerland said. “I’m not sure too many people thought we would win the majority.”

“There’s a big play on making sure we protect and potentially expand the majority by taking a few more seats,” he continued, adding the campaign committee helps train candidates on messaging and provides them with staffers to help with mailing campaigns and television spots.

Republicans have maintained strong majorities in the Pennsylvania legislature over the past few decades. Since 1992 the GOP has only lost control of the Senate for one year. Democrats have controlled the House for just eight of those years. The GOP has enjoyed a trifecta—control of the House, Senate, and governor’s office—in 12 of those years.

The Democratic Party has controlled the governor’s office in the state since 2015, the longest stretch of party control for the past 30 years.

Whether or not that signals a possible shift in state politics is uncertain. Charlie Gerow, CEO of Quantum Communications and a GOP candidate for governor in 2022, said that “given the mood of the electorate,” Democrats “have a very steep hill to climb.”

“Joe Biden is unpopular even among Democrats in Pennsylvania,” Gerow said. “The Republicans will have at the top of the ticket some strong candidates as opposed to the weak ones in 2022.”

“The economy here is not working for most people,” he went on. “It’s always the economy. I think Democrats probably hit their high water mark last year and will see the tide recede a little bit in 2024.

“Joe Biden is unpopular even among Democrats in Pennsylvania,” he continued. “The Republicans will have at the top of the ticket some strong candidates as opposed to the weak ones in 2022.”

Pennsylvania statute dictates all seats in the state House are up for re-election every two years, while senators face staggered four-year terms. Most seats in both chambers break easily for one party or another. In 2022, Ballotpedia identified just 16 percent of House districts as “battleground” races. The election tracker designated just 18 percent of state Senate races last year as contested.

One Republican strategist who spoke on background pointed to the upcoming race in Pennsylvania’s 163rd House District as a potentially close contest, though he speculated Democrats would ultimately prevail. That seat was vacated by Democratic Rep. Mike Zabel last month amid allegations of sexual harassment and assault.

The strategist said that though Democrats will likely hold onto the seat, Republicans have put up a strong candidate—Army veteran Katie Ford—and that they may have a fighting chance at flipping it. “If they do, it’s a harbinger of things to come,” he said.

And it’s not just the state legislature. On Monday the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee released its list of targeted GOP seats to flip, and on the list is Bucks County’s U.S. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick. It’s not the first time for the swing-district Republican.

Asked about their effort, National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Chris Gustafson said, “House Democrats are grasping for seats as they continue to support extreme policies that are completely out of touch. Brian Fitzpatrick has consistently delivered results for Pennsylvania families and they are excited to re-elect him next fall.”

Southerland believes Democrats can turn the entire state government blue. “There’s definitely room for us to grow a little bit,” he said.

Former Bridgewater CEO and possible 2024 U.S. Senate hopeful Dave McCormick slammed what he said was a “decade” of bad monetary and fiscal policy from government leaders that led to recent bank meltdowns.

McCormick made the claim during a DVJournal podcast interview regarding the historic collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and the federal government’s scrambling efforts to contain the fallout.

Acknowledging that “anybody that’s predicting too much” about the crisis “probably is too confident” about the “dynamic situation,” McCormick—who is widely viewed as a likely Senate challenger to incumbent Democrat Sen. Bob Casey next year—argued there are “a set of root causes” that led to SVB’s collapse.

“We’ve had a decade or more of misguided fiscal policy and misguided monetary policy,” McCormick said. “We’ve had fiscal policy that has been enormous spending, and that spending has accelerated dramatically under Joe Biden.

“Discretionary spending has gone up by about 40 percent,” he continued. “You’ve had the three big pieces of legislation, which have added something like $18 trillion of new spending over the next 10 years, and that’s a huge driver of inflation.”

McCormick further argued that “very low interest rates” have driven financiers to adjust their spending and investment practices accordingly, driving them to “lock in long-duration treasuries and things like that in search of yield.

“And when the Fed raised rates to essentially offset the inflation that they helped create, that created a crisis at SVB because those treasuries that they held in their balance sheet went down in value,” he said. “They had to sell capital to try to close the hole, and that spooked their depositors and their depositors started to take out money.”

McCormick called the present chaos “the tip of the iceberg in terms of the problem,” one that “[won’t] go away until we get our fiscal house in order and back to our normal monetary policy.”

McCormick, who is promoting his new book “Superpower In Peril,” is increasingly being viewed as a favorite for the 2024 Senate race, with many analysts and strategists balking at the prospect of another bid by state Sen. Doug Mastriano, who lost his gubernatorial bid against Gov. Josh Shapiro last year.

However, a Public Policy Polling survey this week showed Mastriano with a sizeable lead ahead of McCormick in a potential 2024 GOP primary matchup.

If God wants state Sen. Doug Mastriano to run for U.S. Senate, He hasn’t told the leadership of the Republican party.

Last week, Politico reported Mastriano — crushed by nearly 15 points in last year’s governor’s race against then-Attorney General Josh Shapiro – is considering a challenge to Democrat Bob Casey in 2024. He’s “praying” about it, Mastriano told the magazine. After God, his wife, Rebbie, will have the final word he said.

But National Republican Senate Committee Chair Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), who is in charge of the group’s candidate recruitment, already has a word or two on the subject: No way.

“We need somebody who can win a primary and a general election. His last race demonstrated he couldn’t win a general,” Daines tweeted.

He is not alone. “Mastriano running for any statewide office would be another big gift to Pennsylvania Democrats,” said Christopher Nicholas with Eagle Consulting Group.

Mastriano ran as a solidly MAGA candidate with hardline views on social issues like abortion in the relatively purple state of Pennsylvania. He lost the money race, raising just $7 million compared to Shapiro’s $73 million.

Pennsylvania Republicans told DVJournal they were not interested in a repeat performance.

Republican insiders are already looking to former hedge fund CEO Dave McCormick in 2024.

“I think [Mastriano] has little to no chance of defeating David McCormick in a primary,” said Jeff Jubelirer with Bellevue Communications. “McCormick came within a whisker of defeating Dr. Oz in the GOP U.S. Senate primary in 2022, and many observers believed he would have fared better, and perhaps even beat, John Fetterman in the general election.

Charlie Gerow, CEO of Quantum Communications who also ran in the GOP gubernatorial primary, said Mastriano would have to give up his state Senate seat or run for both offices at once.

“I think his constituents would not be happy with that,” said Gerow. “A lot of people are talking about running for the U.S. Senate. He took a lot of time away (from his state Senate job) to run for governor.”

And, Republicans say, defeating an incumbent like Casey won’t be easy.

“Perhaps if Donald Trump injects himself again in the Senate race, it could benefit Mastriano a little [in the primary], but it didn’t help him make a dent when he ran against Josh Shapiro for governor,” Jubelirer said.

“I think the Republicans would prefer a stronger candidate, especially after taking it on the chin statewide in 2022.”

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