DV Journal

For an alternative viewpoint, see: “Counterpoint: Not a 2016 Rerun–Trump Is a One-Trick Pony.”

A large field of qualified candidates is setting up the Republican primaries for a repeat of 2016.

No one expected political neophyte Donald Trump to suck up all of the oxygen in the 2016 Republican primaries when the party had one of the most qualified slates of candidates in recent memory. Sitting U.S. senators, popular current and former governors from important swing states, and a former CEO of a major company all shared the debate stage with Trump, and most expected their experience to rise above his media presence.

But experience as a legislator or executive didn’t matter. A long history of promoting Republican principles didn’t matter. Even ethical norms that have previously been well-established were out the window.

Trump masterfully harnessed the 24-hour news cycle and his Twitter prowess to control the narrative. While other candidates presented policy ideas, like Sen. Marco Rubio’s gas tax reduction or Gov. John Kasich’s prescient focus on banking regulations, their messages were drowned out.

Why did policy positions matter so little in 2016? The primaries became a nationwide reckoning, a moment when frustrated Americans sought a fighter who would demolish the broken system instead of merely applying Band-Aids. People craved radical change as the American dream crumbled, and the policy-focused candidates could only offer incremental solutions.

So here we are, on the cusp of another raucous primary season. What’s different this time? Some argue that Trump’s loss in 2020 and questions about his electability have opened the field. Others point to rising stars like Gov. Ron DeSantis and Sen. Tim Scott as genuine potential contenders. Then there are the potential legal entanglements that might throw a wrench into Trump’s plans. And he’s no longer on Twitter, making it harder for him to dominate the news cycle.

However, let’s not forget that nobody believed Trump could win in 2016, and we all know how that turned out. Back then, stellar candidates with exceptional qualities ultimately fell short. Even more recently, Trump experienced a boost in polling after his indictment.

None of these factors fundamentally alter the dynamics of the furious voters who propelled Trump to victory before. And people are still unhappy. Fewer than 25 percent believe the country is on the right track, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average.

So where does this leave the other candidates?

If candidates try to out-Trump Trump, they fail. See Rubio’s “small hands” incident. Attacking him head-on has never proven to be an effective strategy. It has the added risk of turning off likely Trump voters — of which there are many.

Sadly, focusing on policy prescriptions is an exercise in futility. While there are indeed individuals who care about these issues, the ideas often go unheard amid the noise of the political landscape.

The 2016 primaries were by controversial statements, viral moments and media dramas overshadowing policy discussions. In the era of social media and 24/7 news coverage, the 2024 primaries will probably experience similar dynamics, favoring candidates who thrive in a chaotic and attention-seeking environment, which obviously tilts the race in favor of Trump.

This puts the other candidates in an impossible, unwinnable position.

The only way to avoid repeating 2016 is a numbers game. If there are still five or six candidates in the Iowa Caucus, the “never-Trump” voters will be spread out among the other candidates, making it impossible for someone else to come out on top. With a couple of quick victories in the early states, the sense of inevitability will swell, propelling the front-runner Trump toward the nomination.

Even if it were a one-on-one race, polling suggests that most Republican voters may still support Trump.

While the future remains uncertain, the similarities between the coming Republican primaries in 2024 and the 2016 election are too striking to ignore. A fragmented field, the enduring influence of Trump, and the party base’s motivations are all poised to shape the contest. However, as with anything related to Trump, uncertainty reigns. Anything could happen. But if I had to put my money on an outcome, it’s on history repeating itself.

According to the U.S. Elections Project, 59.2 percent of people who were eligible to vote in the 2016 general election did so. That number increased to 66.6 percent in 2020.

With the 2024 presidential election on the horizon and 80-year-old President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, 76, already declaring their candidacies, the winning candidate will need to attract as many voters as possible from every age group.

What are young voters looking for in a candidate?

The DVJournal asked high school seniors who will be voting next year what qualities they find valuable in a presidential candidate and what they would want for a candidate in 2024. Like members of other generations, they had diverse answers.

Bucks County native Charlie Adams, 18, focused on strategies the president should take, along with the experience that he would like candidates to have.

“They should be able to adapt to our era now regardless of [their] age,” said Adams. “Also, background in government and prior experience with some form of military experience, as well, is sufficient for me.

“ In 2024, I would like all of these, but in someone younger and who understands social media and can relate with the people effectively,” said Adams.

“Any new candidate that has a focus on social media presence would have an advantage in the next election, as the new voters today have a lot more of a focus online for advertising and messages rather than television or newspapers, as candidates in the past have relied on,” he said.

Others, like Bucks County student Grace Kantra, 18, paid more attention to what the president’s mindset should be and what policy stances they would take.

“For me, the most valuable qualities would be having empathy and compassion for everyone and basing their ideas for America on our country’s needs and not their own personal agenda,” said Kantra. “I would really like someone who is in the middle of the road politically, not too extreme in their ideologies whether they be Democratic or Republican. And who’s willing to work together to compromise on pressing issues.

“I think recently we’ve had more extreme presidents who’ve really wanted to push a certain set of views, and it would be nice to have someone who was more willing to understand all perspectives and make more positive change for the U.S. as a whole and not just small groups,” she said. “Also, one specific quality I’m looking for is someone who supports women’s rights, is willing to fight for them, and blocks the idea of removing access to birth control for us in the future because that’s super scary to think about.”

However, it’s not a one size fits all. Some focused on policies they want to be changed. Chester County native Owen Langan, 18, said he “would love to see a candidate who is willing to fully stand behind Taiwan…[and] to focus on the opioid epidemic.”

He also said he would like systematic changes and “would like to see a candidate like Mitt Romney who strays away from the two-party system. Someone who is a third party or neither Democrat/Republican.”

That diversity of ways to approach this question shows how complex winning over the new generation will be for any presidential candidate, so much so that we may see fundamental changes in how the election is run in the next decade or two.

However, that does not mean there is no evidence that a preference exists. According to the Pew Research Center, voters in the youngest adult generations today–Generation Z (ages 18 to 23 in 2020) and the Millennial generation (ages 24 to 39 in 2020)–favored Biden over Trump by a margin of 20 percentage points.

In the next election, the Republican Party will most likely have to appeal more to Generation Z as it is historically disadvantaged in winning over this group. Regardless, the 2024 election will make history, and how the parties advertise to the youngest eligible generation could make or break their campaigns.

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Congrats, Pennsylvania — You made Mitch McConnell’s final four.

In an interview with CNN, the Senate’s GOP leader laid out what he believes is the most likely path for Republicans to regain control, and it runs through four states: Montana, West Virginia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

McConnell and many GOP pundits say Republicans are on track in West Virginia, where popular Gov. Jim Justice has announced he plans to run for the seat currently held by Sen. Joe Manchin. The two-term Democrat has not said if he will run for reelection next year in a state Trump carried by 40 points in 2020.

The other states are less settled, particularly Pennsylvania, where Republican strategists believe Dave McCormick would have the best chance to stop Democrat Sen. Bob Casey from winning a record fourth term. But McCormick may have to get past state Sen. Doug Mastriano, who polls show remains popular with GOP primary voters despite his crushing defeat in last year’s gubernatorial race against now-Gov. Josh Shapiro.

According to CNN, McConnell and the NRSC “are expected to go all-out for McCormick, whom the GOP leader called a ‘high-quality candidate.’”

And what about Mastriano? “I think everybody is entitled to run. I’m confident the vast majority of people who meet Dave McCormick will be fine with him,” McConnell said.

“The Senate GOP Leader understands what nearly all Republican leaders here know,” Republican strategist Christopher Nicholas told DVJournal. “Only Dave McCormick can give Casey a run for his money in 2024.”

There has been little polling about a GOP primary, but the available data give Mastriano a lead. Pennsylvania GOP pros say the passion for Mastriano in the MAGA section of the party remains strong. At the same time, losing the Senate seat in 2022, particularly to John Fetterman, a left-of-center candidate with significant health issues, sent a shockwave through the state GOP, one source told DVJournal.

“There is no ‘MAGA’ magic,” the source said. “If they really don’t care about winning [the general election], then we just have to find a way to beat them.”

Republicans may need to pull out all the stops in Pennsylvania. In Montana, another state Trump carried big, popular incumbent Sen. Jon Tester (D) has already said he will run again, giving his party its best chance of holding the seat. And while Ohio has been trending red for more than a decade, incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) is a populist Democrat in the mold of Sen. Bernie Sanders. He may be particularly tough to beat, as well.

So even though Democrats have to defend more than twice as many seats as Republicans next year (23 to 11), McConnell laughed when asked if he was confident about the GOP’s chances.

“No, no – I’m not,” McConnell said. “I just spent 10 minutes explaining to you how we could screw this up, and we’re working very hard to not let that happen.”

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No Republicans have announced they are taking on Democratic U.S. Sen. Bob Casey next year. Yet former President Donald Trump is already talking about the upcoming campaign.

According to Politico, the prospect that state Sen. Doug Mastriano (R-Franklin) might enter the Senate primary is “inducing panic among GOP officials,” including Trump himself. “The former president has privately told Republicans he fears that Mastriano would hurt him in a general election if they were on the top of the ticket together next year,” Politico reports.

Mastriano told DVJournal it’s fake news.

“Politico got this wrong,” Mastriano said. “Forty-five has said nothing about this odd story to me. He has my cell number.” The number 45 is shorthand for Trump, the 45th president.

Multiple advisors with Trump’s 2024 campaign did not respond to questions about the statement.

Mastriano won a multi-candidate primary for governor last year in the face of criticism that his extreme views on abortion and cultural issues would make him a weak general election candidate. It was a view shared by Pennsylvania Democrats, who bought TV ads boosting his candidacy in the GOP primary.

In the final days of the primary, Trump endorsed Mastriano, who went on to lose the governor’s race to then-Attorney General Josh Shapiro by 15 points.

In addition to Politico’s reporting, national Republican leadership has responded cooly to reports of Mastriano’s candidacy. “We need somebody who can win a primary and a general election. His last race demonstrated he can’t win a general,” said National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Steve Daines.

On the other hand, a Public Policy Polling survey in March found strong 2024 support for both Trump and Mastriano among Pennsylvania Republicans.

Mastriano posted a Facebook video last Thursday strongly hinting he plans to enter the race.

“We’ll talk about this U.S. Senate seat that so many are speculating about me running for. The polls do have me walking away with it, hands down,” Mastriano said, dismissing his naysayers as “RINOs” (Republicans in Name Only) and announcing that he and his wife Rebbie have already made a decision.

“I really don’t care about their opinion,” Mastriano said of his Republican critics. “They cannot win a primary or the general election without the base. We are the base.

“We already have a decision, have had this decision for a few weeks now, and we’ll let you know.”

If Mastriano moves to challenge Casey, who has announced he is seeking a fourth term, he’ll have his work cut out for him.

Casey is the longest-serving Democratic senator in Pennsylvania history. In his previous Senate elections, he beat two Republican challengers by double-digit percentage points and one by just under 10 percentage points.

Republican insiders are putting their hopes on David McCormick, who narrowly lost last year’s Senate primary to celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz. Like Mastriano, Oz had the backing of Trump and performed poorly in the general election.

In the latest Franklin & Marshall College poll, Casey leads Mastriano by 16 points (47-31 percent) in a theoretical head-to-head contest but leads McCormick by just seven points (42-35 percent).

“Taking on any incumbent is challenging,” Mastriano told DVJournal earlier this month. “Casey’s challenge is that other than running on his dad’s name, he’s an unremarkable senator who’s more interested in being a lackey for the radical left than fighting for Pennsylvania.”

In 10 short months, presidential caucus-goers in Iowa will fire the official starting pistol on the 2024 race for the White House. For Republicans hoping to challenge the party’s standard-bearer for the nomination, though, it may already be too late.

The indictment of former president Donald Trump by a Manhattan grand jury has catapulted him to the top of the polls, rallying his supporters and swamping him in campaign donations. Trump raked in more than $4 million in donations within 24 hours of the indictment. He couldn’t have scripted a better recharge for his flagging third attempt at a second term.

Trump’s appeal to voters has always relied on portraying himself as a victim of a progressive left determined to silence him. As such, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, a Democrat, played right into Trump’s hands by delivering what, by most assessments, is a weak case that the former president violated campaign finance law during the 2016 campaign.

Winning the sympathy vote isn’t the same as winning the White House. That requires earning a majority of the vote in the general election, something Republicans haven’t done in the last four presidential contests.

Trump’s superpower has always been his ability to endure circumstances that would make others cringe. It’s one of the reasons his base adores him. Yet, even under the favorable conditions presented by the Electoral College, a Trump win in 2024 is, at best, a roll of the dice.

This week revealed that few Republican hopefuls can rival the former president’s popularity with the party’s base.

Polling after the indictment showed Trump leading the pack of Republican nomination hopefuls with 47 percent of support among Republican and Republican-leaning voters. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, with 33 percent support, was the only Republican who presented a serious challenge. Everyone else was in single digits.

DeSantis hasn’t officially entered the race, but few doubt his intention once the Florida legislative session wraps in May. Far from being scared off by his second-place finish, DeSantis’ showing only bolsters the case for his candidacy.

Any candidate under indictment undoubtedly faces longer odds of winning the general election. There are also the investigations into Trump’s handling of classified documents and the grand jury inquiry into election tampering accusations in Georgia that have yet to play out.

At some point, Republicans must choose the candidate with the best chance of taking back the White House, which means expanding the party’s current coalition. If the GOP base isn’t interested in winning the election that counts, what’s the point of being a party?

DeSantis offers Republicans an alternative with similar appeal among Trump’s populist base but without the legal minefield. He’s also a winner, sweeping into power in 2020 with a majority and long coattails that gave Florida Republicans a trifecta over the levers of power in the state.

Trump and DeSantis share a few similarities in policy, and they have a pugilist’s willingness to throw a punch, but they differ significantly in style. While Trump was playing the victim on social media this week, DeSantis was busy governing the third-most-populous state in the nation.

DeSantis has drawn criticism for appearing aloof and detached from the baby-kissing and glad-handing required on the national campaign trail. Still, he is free of the gaffs and grievance politics that define Trump.

DeSantis has established a solid following among GOP donors, too. The DeSantis-aligned Never Back Down super PAC raised $30 million last month. DeSantis also has $82 million in his state political committee, which could be transferred to Never Back Down or another entity supporting him when DeSantis announces.

Trump caught lightning in a bottle in 2016. His surprise victory over Hillary Clinton redefined presidential politics and shook up a staid GOP. Since then, though, his record has been defined by one disappointment after another. From losing the White House to Joe Biden in 2020 to not one but two Senate races in Georgia to the political fallout from January 6 to this week’s indictment in New York, the Republican Party under Trump has struggled to regain its mojo. Republican primary voters must decide which of the two candidates can go the distance and accomplish their conservative policy priorities.

Do Republicans want to cut the deficit, strengthen the border, and win the global competition with China or settle old scores and “own the libs”? There may not be a consensus on the answer to that question today, but Republicans need to decide soon. One thing is sure; the GOP can’t afford to spend another cycle looking backward and arguing over the outcome of the 2020 election.

I’m a lifelong conservative likely to support the candidate who wins the GOP nomination regardless. That said, voting for a winner this time would be nice.

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National Democrats are vowing to advance party control throughout the U.S. in 2024 by targeting what they say are “vulnerable GOP chambers” in state legislatures around the country. On their list:

Pennsylvania’s Senate.

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee said in a recent statement that it plans to “harness [the] momentum” of the party’s 2022 victories and “mount competitive challenges in vulnerable GOP chambers that we have an opportunity to take back.”

The DLCC vowed in its statement to both protect its recently won majority in the Pennsylvania House of Representatives and flip control of the Pennsylvania Senate from the GOP.

Trevor Southerland, the executive director of the Pennsylvania House Democratic Campaign Committee, admitted the Democratic Party’s 2022 results in the state House “surprised some people.” In that election, Democrats gained control of the lower chamber for the first time in 12 years.

“I think everybody thought we would pick up seats,” Southerland said. “I’m not sure too many people thought we would win the majority.”

“There’s a big play on making sure we protect and potentially expand the majority by taking a few more seats,” he continued, adding the campaign committee helps train candidates on messaging and provides them with staffers to help with mailing campaigns and television spots.

Republicans have maintained strong majorities in the Pennsylvania legislature over the past few decades. Since 1992 the GOP has only lost control of the Senate for one year. Democrats have controlled the House for just eight of those years. The GOP has enjoyed a trifecta—control of the House, Senate, and governor’s office—in 12 of those years.

The Democratic Party has controlled the governor’s office in the state since 2015, the longest stretch of party control for the past 30 years.

Whether or not that signals a possible shift in state politics is uncertain. Charlie Gerow, CEO of Quantum Communications and a GOP candidate for governor in 2022, said that “given the mood of the electorate,” Democrats “have a very steep hill to climb.”

“Joe Biden is unpopular even among Democrats in Pennsylvania,” Gerow said. “The Republicans will have at the top of the ticket some strong candidates as opposed to the weak ones in 2022.”

“The economy here is not working for most people,” he went on. “It’s always the economy. I think Democrats probably hit their high water mark last year and will see the tide recede a little bit in 2024.

“Joe Biden is unpopular even among Democrats in Pennsylvania,” he continued. “The Republicans will have at the top of the ticket some strong candidates as opposed to the weak ones in 2022.”

Pennsylvania statute dictates all seats in the state House are up for re-election every two years, while senators face staggered four-year terms. Most seats in both chambers break easily for one party or another. In 2022, Ballotpedia identified just 16 percent of House districts as “battleground” races. The election tracker designated just 18 percent of state Senate races last year as contested.

One Republican strategist who spoke on background pointed to the upcoming race in Pennsylvania’s 163rd House District as a potentially close contest, though he speculated Democrats would ultimately prevail. That seat was vacated by Democratic Rep. Mike Zabel last month amid allegations of sexual harassment and assault.

The strategist said that though Democrats will likely hold onto the seat, Republicans have put up a strong candidate—Army veteran Katie Ford—and that they may have a fighting chance at flipping it. “If they do, it’s a harbinger of things to come,” he said.

And it’s not just the state legislature. On Monday the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee released its list of targeted GOP seats to flip, and on the list is Bucks County’s U.S. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick. It’s not the first time for the swing-district Republican.

Asked about their effort, National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Chris Gustafson said, “House Democrats are grasping for seats as they continue to support extreme policies that are completely out of touch. Brian Fitzpatrick has consistently delivered results for Pennsylvania families and they are excited to re-elect him next fall.”

Southerland believes Democrats can turn the entire state government blue. “There’s definitely room for us to grow a little bit,” he said.

Former Bridgewater CEO and possible 2024 U.S. Senate hopeful Dave McCormick slammed what he said was a “decade” of bad monetary and fiscal policy from government leaders that led to recent bank meltdowns.

McCormick made the claim during a DVJournal podcast interview regarding the historic collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and the federal government’s scrambling efforts to contain the fallout.

Acknowledging that “anybody that’s predicting too much” about the crisis “probably is too confident” about the “dynamic situation,” McCormick—who is widely viewed as a likely Senate challenger to incumbent Democrat Sen. Bob Casey next year—argued there are “a set of root causes” that led to SVB’s collapse.

“We’ve had a decade or more of misguided fiscal policy and misguided monetary policy,” McCormick said. “We’ve had fiscal policy that has been enormous spending, and that spending has accelerated dramatically under Joe Biden.

“Discretionary spending has gone up by about 40 percent,” he continued. “You’ve had the three big pieces of legislation, which have added something like $18 trillion of new spending over the next 10 years, and that’s a huge driver of inflation.”

McCormick further argued that “very low interest rates” have driven financiers to adjust their spending and investment practices accordingly, driving them to “lock in long-duration treasuries and things like that in search of yield.

“And when the Fed raised rates to essentially offset the inflation that they helped create, that created a crisis at SVB because those treasuries that they held in their balance sheet went down in value,” he said. “They had to sell capital to try to close the hole, and that spooked their depositors and their depositors started to take out money.”

McCormick called the present chaos “the tip of the iceberg in terms of the problem,” one that “[won’t] go away until we get our fiscal house in order and back to our normal monetary policy.”

McCormick, who is promoting his new book “Superpower In Peril,” is increasingly being viewed as a favorite for the 2024 Senate race, with many analysts and strategists balking at the prospect of another bid by state Sen. Doug Mastriano, who lost his gubernatorial bid against Gov. Josh Shapiro last year.

However, a Public Policy Polling survey this week showed Mastriano with a sizeable lead ahead of McCormick in a potential 2024 GOP primary matchup.

If God wants state Sen. Doug Mastriano to run for U.S. Senate, He hasn’t told the leadership of the Republican party.

Last week, Politico reported Mastriano — crushed by nearly 15 points in last year’s governor’s race against then-Attorney General Josh Shapiro – is considering a challenge to Democrat Bob Casey in 2024. He’s “praying” about it, Mastriano told the magazine. After God, his wife, Rebbie, will have the final word he said.

But National Republican Senate Committee Chair Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), who is in charge of the group’s candidate recruitment, already has a word or two on the subject: No way.

“We need somebody who can win a primary and a general election. His last race demonstrated he couldn’t win a general,” Daines tweeted.

He is not alone. “Mastriano running for any statewide office would be another big gift to Pennsylvania Democrats,” said Christopher Nicholas with Eagle Consulting Group.

Mastriano ran as a solidly MAGA candidate with hardline views on social issues like abortion in the relatively purple state of Pennsylvania. He lost the money race, raising just $7 million compared to Shapiro’s $73 million.

Pennsylvania Republicans told DVJournal they were not interested in a repeat performance.

Republican insiders are already looking to former hedge fund CEO Dave McCormick in 2024.

“I think [Mastriano] has little to no chance of defeating David McCormick in a primary,” said Jeff Jubelirer with Bellevue Communications. “McCormick came within a whisker of defeating Dr. Oz in the GOP U.S. Senate primary in 2022, and many observers believed he would have fared better, and perhaps even beat, John Fetterman in the general election.

Charlie Gerow, CEO of Quantum Communications who also ran in the GOP gubernatorial primary, said Mastriano would have to give up his state Senate seat or run for both offices at once.

“I think his constituents would not be happy with that,” said Gerow. “A lot of people are talking about running for the U.S. Senate. He took a lot of time away (from his state Senate job) to run for governor.”

And, Republicans say, defeating an incumbent like Casey won’t be easy.

“Perhaps if Donald Trump injects himself again in the Senate race, it could benefit Mastriano a little [in the primary], but it didn’t help him make a dent when he ran against Josh Shapiro for governor,” Jubelirer said.

“I think the Republicans would prefer a stronger candidate, especially after taking it on the chin statewide in 2022.”

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