In just two months, the Pennsylvania U.S. Senate race has gone from a solid lead for the Democrat to a red-hot race with Republican momentum.
On Aug. 25, Republican Dave McCormick trailed three-term incumbent U.S. Sen. Bob Casey (D) by nearly eight points in the RealClearPolitics polling average. Some pundits began predicting the race might be out of reach.
Today, polls show Casey and McCormick locked in a virtual tie less than two weeks ahead of Election Day.
“I’m not that surprised by the Casey-McCormick number tightening, [but] I’m a little surprised that it tightened that much,” political strategist Jeff Jubelirer of Bellevue Communications told DVJournal.
The latest Franklin & Marshall College Poll showed Casey leading by a single point over McCormick at 49 to 48 percent. (The same poll gave former President Donald Trump a one point-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris.)
“The October 2024 Franklin & Marshall College Poll finds that the state’s current electoral environment seems to offer more advantages for Republicans than Democrats,” wrote Franklin & Marshall College Poll Director Berwood Yost. “The difference in preferences among likely voters is primarily because the partisan, ideological, and age profile of these voters is different–the current pool of registered voters is more Republican in terms of their party identity, has fewer moderates ideologically, and has fewer voters less than 35 years of age.”
And the RCP polling average gives Casey just a 1.6 percent edge over McCormick — and falling. Casey has never broken 50 percent in any F&M poll.
“McCormick is closing strong, while Casey’s campaign looks like it’s out of gas,” longtime Pennsylvania Republican strategist Christopher Nicholas of Eagle Consulting told DVJournal.
The F&M College Poll also marked a significant shift toward Trump in the Keystone State, who trailed Harris by four points (49 percent to 45 percent) in last month’s F&M poll.
Neither presidential candidate is popular in Pennsylvania. Trump had a total unfavorable rating of 56 percent while Harris had a 50 percent unfavorable rating.
The RealClearPolitics polling average gives Trump a lead of just under one point in the Keystone State. And the more than half a billion dollars the two campaigns have combined to spend just in Pennsylvania shows how important its 19 Electoral College votes are.
Micah Roberts, a Republican pollster with Public Opinion Strategies, compared Pennsylvania’s role in the 2024 election to Florida’s in the 2000 election.
“[I] t’s just the most important state to be focused on,” he said. “If Pennsylvania is decided and won’t be decided early, but if it starts to trend and one direction or the other, I think it’s going to be a huge sign for what happens in the Rust Belt.”
Roberts said Trump could push McCormick over the top on Election Day. Citing Trump’s higher poll numbers, Roberts said Trump encourages straight-ticket voting. “We’ve very encouraged to see higher, higher early voting turnout.”
Jubelirer agreed. He said the Casey-McCormick race feels like it’s “becoming almost a little bit of a referendum on the top of the ticket.”
Nicholas said Casey is the fight for his political life, after previously coasting to victory in his three previous elections. “Here we are coming up on Halloween and the game is afoot.”
Both national parties are acting like the race is tied. Democratic Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s WinSenate PAC plans to spend an additional $7.1 million on pro Casey ads. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s GOP Senate Leadership Fund PAC plans another $6 million in pro McCormick ads.
Keystone State residents remain worried about the economy. Thirty percent of those surveyed in the F&M poll called it the most important issue. And 18 percent said that would be the key issue when deciding which presidential candidate to support. Ten percent said it was a factor in their vote for U.S. Senate.
When asked who they believed was most prepared to handle the economy, residents picked Trump over Harris, 48 percent to 42 percent.
While it wasn’t considered an ‘important issue,’ 39 percent of those surveyed said illegal immigration had a negative impact on their community. That was tied with those who said it had no impact. Only 16 percent had a favorable view of illegal immigration.
