A national GOP organization says protecting Pennsylvania Republicans’ state Senate majority is a top priority, and it’s putting its money where the math is.
The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) plans to spend $38 million to protect GOP-held legislative chambers and to flip the blue majorities — like the Pennsylvania House — to red. And the Keystone State is on its shortlist.
“Pennsylvanians have an excellent chance in November to keep a Republican majority in the Pennsylvania Senate and remove the gerrymandered extremist Democrat majority in the Pennsylvania House,” the state’s Republican National Committeeman Andy Reilly told DVJournal.
In a memo, RSLC President Dee Duncan warned it would be the “greatest long-term threat to our party” if Democrats seized control of a majority of state legislative chambers across the U.S. The last time that happened was 2010. “A mere 33 seats stand in the way of Democrats flipping the five chambers they need to achieve this feat,” Duncan wrote.
The Keystone State has been a key target of Republicans this election cycle. The RSLC launched a new vote-by-mail program in Pennsylvania in March. The outreach program is tailored to swing voters and people who are eligible to vote but don’t typically cast ballots.
Republicans controlled both chambers of the General Assembly from Jan. 2011 to Dec. 2022.
“The RSLC is making an investment in Pennsylvania because they know how critical the Republican State Senate majority is here,” said Senate Republican Campaign Committee Communications Director Michael Straw. “Senate Republicans are the firewall to the radical agenda that the Democrats have implemented in neighboring states like New York. Between RSLC’s investment, the strong slate of candidates we have, and the failed records of our Democrat opponents, we are well on our way to preserving our Republican Senate majority in 2024.”
GOP legislators in Pennsylvania are still angry over what they say was a partisan redistricting process in 2021 that was hijacked by Democrats to deny Republicans a majority in the House. Two Democrats on the Legislative Reapportionment Commission joined a member appointed by the Democrat-controlled Supreme Court to create a 3-2 majority for a Democrat-friendly map over Republicans’ objections.
Democrats currently control the House, but their single-vote majority goes away later this summer when Rep. Donna Bullock (D-Philadelphia) steps down to run a nonprofit.
Republicans maintain a 28 to 22 majority in the Senate.
Nationwide, Republicans hold more state legislatures than Democrats at 57 to 41. That’s smaller than it used to be. In 2018, the GOP controlled 65 legislative bodies. In 2016, the number was 68.
That’s why Duncan put Pennsylvania’s Senate on the ‘Majorities to Defend’ list, along with Arizona, Georgia, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin legislatures.
In the “Opportunities to Flip Chambers” category? The Pennsylvania House.
That means Pennsylvanians will see even more ads, signs, and other promotional materials backing state GOP incumbents and candidates.
Democrats also have plans for Pennsylvania.
The Democratic Legislation Campaign Committee announced this week that it would spend $10 million on down-ballot races in states like Pennsylvania, Arizona, New Hampshire, and Michigan. It’s part of a $60 million push looking to protect or flip chambers.
Broad + Liberty columnist Guy Ciarrocchi told DVJournal that the big spending by Democrats isn’t surprising. The party regularly outspends the GOP in local Pennsylvania races even when it’s on so-called “safe seats.”
This election cycle will be different, however, because Republicans are ponying up cash as well. “I think that this will be the first cycle in a while that [spending] is going to be close,” he said.
That’s partially due to the makeup of the House.
Ciarrocchi said that there were 10 to 12 races that both parties believe will be lynchpins for chamber control. He does not expect any party to have more than a two-to-three-vote lead once all votes are counted in November.
As for the Senate, Ciarrocchi said that Republicans likely maintain control. He warned that that could change in 2026 if Democrats keep picking up one or two seats every election cycle.
When asked about the Democrats’ spending spree, Reid told DVJournal it was an effort to protect the gerrymandered state House map.
He added that Republican control of the General Assembly would bring common sense to Harrisburg and keep progressive special interests from raiding the Pennsylvania Treasury and raising taxes on Pennsylvania workers.
