As the Nov. 5 election nears, polls show the momentum is with former President Donald Trump and Republican Senate candidate Dave McCormick.
“As long as they avoid any big slip ups, Nov. 5 should be a very, very good night,” a confident Charlie Gerow of Quantum Communications told DVJournal.
Much has changed since the end of July, when Democratic President Joe Biden ended his reelection bid and was replaced by Vice President Kamala Harris. Democratic euphoria over dropping a nominee who appeared destined for disaster sent the relatively unknown Harris’ support soaring. A five-point Trump lead in Pennsylvania turned into a Harris lead in September, according to RealClearPolitics polling averages.
But as of Sunday, Trump was leading in eight of the 10 most recent polls tracked by RCP and held a very narrow 0.6 percent lead.
It’s much different than four years ago, when Trump trailed Biden in the months leading up to the November 2020 election.
McCormick’s polling turnaround is even more pronounced. After trailing three-term U.S. Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D-Pa.) by as many as 14 points in early August, most polls now show the two virtually tied.
Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) rallies volunteers to door knock in Newtown, Bucks County on Saturday.
“That’s not to say that Casey isn’t going to win, but he’s really having to sprint as hard as he can over the last 12 days and in the presidential race, who knows?” longtime Democratic strategist Neil Oxman told DVJournal.
Pennsylvania Republicans remain confident their message is resonating with voters, while admitting the race remains wide open.
“Nothing is ever certain in the state of Pennsylvania,” quipped Albert Eisenberg with BlueStateRed. “But I’d certainly rather be the Trump campaign right now, and frankly I think I’d rather be McCormick as well. That seat is a jump-ball and the momentum is clearly on the GOP side.”
The Casey name will still be hard to beat given the family’s decades-long history in Keystone State politics. Sen. Casey’s father, Democratic Gov. Bob Casey Sr., spent more than 20 years in elected office, and Casey Jr. has lost only one race in his political career – the 2000 Democratic primary for governor against Ed Rendell.
Northeast Pennsylvania may be the biggest question mark for Casey. Oxman said a lot of Republicans in Lackawanna County tend to vote for Casey because they liked his father.
He said, however, that Harris could hurt Casey in the region. “If he is, then it makes the Senate race even closer.”
Eisenberg thinks Trump could pull McCormick to victory if he outpaces the polls by two to four points. Trump won the state by less than 50,000 votes in 2016 and lost it by 80,000 in 2020.
While early voting is surging this year, no one knows exactly how the election will turn out. Particularly with rumors that Harris is underperforming among Black men and Latino voters.
That could spell trouble for Democrats on Election Day.
“Will everybody that they need, that they need to turn out for them – that traditionally support Democrats – do so and vote for [Harris]? Whereas I think Republicans…are more disciplined,” political strategist Jeff Jubelirer of Bellevue Communications told DVJournal.
DVJournal talked to local voters who were all-in on Trump.
Leslie Morgan from Radnor called this year’s election a “change election.”
She said Americans aren’t happy with the direction of the country, particularly with inflation and gas prices.
“Inflation is a dream killer and they know that it happened in the Harris-Biden administration. The policies hurt all U.S. citizens,” Morgan said.
She also expressed anger over the decision by the White House to reengage with Iran and said it caused chaos in the Middle East and hurt U.S. allies. “The voters of our beloved commonwealth know this and are seemingly making a statement by swinging to a commonsense ticket of Trump-Vance and David McCormick.”
Ridley Park resident Jim S. said he used to be a Democrat until he voted for Trump.
“This is probably the most important election of my lifetime,” he said.
Jim suggested Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine because Trump was out of office. “War is not the answer. [The election] is about who is going to do something about it.
“Hopefully, in four years we won’t be paying $8 for eggs,” he said. “Things were great under Trump.”
Republican strategist Jeff Bartos said he believes both McCormick and Trump will celebrate a W come November. He added the Harris campaign was born out of desperation.
“While Vice President Harris cannot articulate a message, President Trump has campaigned effectively on what is clear to Pennsylvanians and all Americans, namely that the Harris-Biden administration broke our economy, opened our borders, and set the world on fire,” Bartos told DVJournal. “President Trump will fix it.”
There’s still some confidence within Democratic circles.
Despite the tough polls and apparent voter discontent, Oxman isn’t convinced they accurately reflect the mood of the electorate. He said one Democratic strategist theorized about a hidden Harris vote, mostly among the under-30 voters.
“[They] don’t answer their cell phones, [their] parents scream because they can’t get a hold of them, they’re not getting included survey research…[the strategist] thinks she’s going to clock [Trump],” he said.
Gerow disagreed.
“Campaigns run on momentum and momentum is running strong for Trump and McCormick. That’s great news for both teams. They look like they can run through the tape at this point,” he said.
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