With more than a year until the election, a new poll gives incumbent Democrat Gov. Josh Shapiro a huge lead over his potential Republican opponents.
Susquehanna Polling and Research found Shapiro ahead of state Treasurer Stacy Garrity 54 to 36 percent, with 9 percent undecided. And while Republican insiders have warned that another run by state Sen. Doug Mastriano (R-Franklin) would mean disaster, the poll found his margin to be almost identical to Garrity’s, at 55 to 37 percent, with 7 percent undecided.
Garrity has already launched her candidacy, while Mastriano has yet to decide whether to run.
Muhlenberg College political science professor Christopher Borick isn’t surprised by the results.
“I’m not surprised Gov. Shapiro has a significant lead in polling at this point in the race,” said Borick. “He has strong job approval ratings and high name recognition, making any challenger’s matchup with him difficult at this point. While any poll a year out from an election should be swallowed with an enormous grain of salt.
“Incumbents’ polling numbers often end up close to their final share of the vote. I wouldn’t be surprised if Shapiro’s numbers next fall end up in this range, but the eventual GOP candidate will have opportunities ahead.”
Charlie Gerow, a longtime Republican strategist, said people shouldn’t give much credence to such an early poll.
“People love polls. Unfortunately, very early polls — the election is more than a year away — don’t tell us very much,” Gerow said.
“A poll that didn’t show an incumbent governor leading at this point would be shocking. This one isn’t. Once Stacy Garrity really starts to chip away at Shapiro’s record, this race will tighten dramatically,” he added.
Mastriano pointed to a recent Quinnipiac poll and noted, “This is the bigger question: 73 percent don’t know Garrity.” Neither Shapiro nor Garrity commented.
In 2024, Garrity set a record for getting the highest number of voters of any Pennsylvania statewide candidate ever: about 3.5 million. That’s a record Shapiro held. Mastriano, who ran against Shapiro in 2022, lost by nearly 15 points.
Garrity was endorsed last month by the Pennsylvania Republican Party, although a primary will still be held next May. By endorsing a candidate early on, party leaders hope to avoid the 2022 scenario when nine people were on the primary ballot.
Regarding the endorsement, Gerow said, “It may prove pivotal as it effectively clears the field except for a potential Mastriano candidacy.”
After that endorsement, Garrity traversed the state with her ‘Help is on the Way’ campaign. In Bucks County, she criticized Shapiro for his apparent political ambition to run for president in 2028. She contrasted that with her service to the state as treasurer. She also lambasted Shapiro for failing to get a state budget passed on time for the third consecutive year. She promised to stop “waste and gimmicks” in the state budget.
“Pennsylvania needs somebody who can show up, roll up their sleeves and get the job done,” she said.