The latest poll of Pennsylvania voters released by the Commonwealth Foundation had good news for Democrats like President Joe Biden and U.S. Sen. Bob Casey. But it also found many voters are still undecided about the Senate race and unhappy with their choices for the Oval Office.
The Commonwealth Foundation survey of 800 registered voters found that 47 percent of voters support Casey. McCormick garnered 30 percent. Another 15 percent were undecided.
And if the 2024 presidential election were held today, 44 percent would vote for President Joe Biden, 41 percent for former President Donald Trump, and 7 percent for Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
The Commonwealth Foundation poll was a bit of an outlier. The RealClearPolitics average gave Casey a six-point lead over McCormick.
A Franklin & Marshall poll released on April 4 put Casey ahead by seven. In that survey of 870 registered voters, Casey’s favorability rate sat at 40 percent, with a 34 percent unfavorable rate.
“Typically, an incumbent polling below 50 percent is a warning sign for their campaign,” Brett Loyd, president of the Bullfinch Group, told DVJournal. “Sen. Bob Casey is polling at 47 percent—and that’s why this Senate race is on the map. Casey’s challenge is that he’s an 18-year incumbent who isn’t supported by half the electorate.”
McCormick’s favorable rating was 24 percent, and his unfavorable rating was 30 percent. The F&M poll also found that 46 percent of voters hadn’t heard enough about him to form an opinion.
The results highlight McCormick’s most pressing issue: raising his name value among Keystone State voters.
“He has a long road ahead to build up his name ID before the election,” observed Loyd.
McCormick’s campaign has taken steps to address that problem. He’s released ads focused on his history as a championship wrestler for the Bloomberg Area High School. McCormick has also stepped up campaign appearances, showing up at Geno’s Steaks in Philadelphia last week after a rally in northeast Pennsylvania.
“Dave McCormick understands that Pennsylvanians want a leader who will listen, show up, and fight for them in Washington,” a campaign spokesperson told DVJournal. “That’s why he is dedicating so much time and energy crisscrossing the commonwealth’s 67 counties to meet with voters and hear their concerns.”
The combination of campaign rallies and commercials should help.
“I think you’ve got to have both,” F&M Poll Director Berwood Yost told DVJournal. “I think the paid media has to support what you get out of the news coverage. Those two go hand-in-hand.”
Yost said that McCormick has the opportunity to get the large pool of moderate and undecided voters on his side before November.
At the same time, he noted, most focus will be on the presidential race where incumbent Democrat President Joe Biden is either statistically tied or trailing Republican Donald Trump.
“I will be curious to see how the Senate candidates relate to the presidential candidates,” Yost said. “It will be interesting to see to what extent [Casey and McCormick] run with them or run at a step removed from them.”
Case in point: Biden’s job approval in the Keystone State is 45 percent approve, 54 percent disapprove. And the number of voters who “strongly disapprove” is significantly larger (39 percent) than those who “strongly approve” (19 percent).
