For generations, American elections have been decided by voters in swing states. An under-reported political earthquake has occurred over the last four years among Gen Z, and it will shape the outcome of every U.S. election for years to come.
There has been a significant shift among Gen Z college students to registering as independent voters rather than for either major party. In other words, they don’t feel they owe anyone their vote, and they will make the candidates work hard for it.
Our annual surveys at IGNITE of Gen Z show the shift in stark terms. In 2020, 59 percent of Gen Z college student voters were registered Democrats, and 30 percent were registered Republicans. Just 11.5 percent were registered as independent.
Now, the numbers have shifted enormously. There’s been a 20 percent reduction in registered Democrats to 39 percent, but there’s also a drop in registered Republicans to 26.5 percent. Registered independents now account for 23 percent of all Gen Z college student voters. That’s a staggering increase of more than 100 percent. Gen Z simply doesn’t conform to the hard lines of political parties like previous generations did.
With Gen Z poised to be this country’s largest voting bloc, that shift has tremendous implications. In Pennsylvania, where polling is neck-and-neck in the presidential race, 1.3 million people are registered as independent voters. That’s 20 percent of the 6.8 million people voted in the 2020 election.
Much of the recent news and analysis about Gen Z has focused on gender divisions, and Gen Z men and women indeed have different priorities. Our issue-based focus groups in swing states have shown that young men prioritize mass shootings (64 percent), mental health (59 percent), and jobs and unemployment (58 percent) as priority issues. At the same time, young women care more about healthcare (59 percent) than mental health (55 percent). Young women also care more passionately about abortion (56 percent) as a priority issue, and it’s possible their prioritization of abortion also falls under the healthcare umbrella. They still care about mental health (55 percent) as a priority issue. They also care more about climate change (55 percent) and racial inequality (55 percent) than young men.
Still, the more significant and notable shift here is that young people care more about specific issues and candidates than they do about party political affiliation. They’re also the most racially diverse generation that’s ever voted, and they are telling us that they want candidates who reach out to them authentically to engage on their issues. They’re adept navigators of misinformation and disinformation, and more than 50 percent get their political news from social media rather than traditional news sources.
They don’t trust the media to interpret candidates’ policy positions on their behalf. Instead, they want candidates to deliver substance. They also want to connect with candidates who share their values and approaches authentically. They’re less taken in by political rhetoric and soundbites and want to see the substance of what political candidates are offering.
With that in mind, it’s not enough for candidates to go on a radio show or a podcast with a broad listenership among young voters. Forums about issues are less impactful on voting intentions than telling independent voters what they will do for them, specifically if they’re elected.
As Gen Z reshapes the political landscape with its substantial shift toward independent voting, it’s clear that the old playbook won’t suffice. Candidates vying for attention can no longer rely on traditional party loyalty or broad, sweeping gestures. In the face of this generation’s demand for authenticity, substance and direct engagement on the issues that matter to them, the political arena is set for a seismic change. The message from Gen Z is unequivocal: Resonate with us on a genuine level, or risk being left behind.
