Three-term incumbent U.S. Sen. Bob Casey Jr. is down to a one-point lead over Republican challenger Dave McCormick in the latest Franklin & Marshall (F&M) College Poll. And former President Donald Trump holds the same margin over Vice President Kamala Harris.
“The October 2024 Franklin & Marshall College Poll finds that the state’s current electoral environment seems to offer more advantages for Republicans than Democrats,” wrote Franklin & Marshall College Poll Director Berwood Yost. “The difference in preferences among likely voters is primarily because the partisan, ideological, and age profile of these voters is different–the current pool of registered voters is more Republican in terms of their party identity, has fewer moderates ideologically, and has fewer voters less than 35 years of age.”
This poll marks a significant shift toward Trump in the Keystone State, who trailed Harris by four points (49 percent to 45 percent) in last month’s F&M poll.
Neither presidential candidate is popular in Pennsylvania. Trump had a total unfavorable rating of 56 percent while Harris had a 50 percent unfavorable rating.
The RealClearPolitics polling average gives Trump a lead of just under a point. It shows how important Pennsylvania’s 19 Electoral College votes will be in 2024.
Micah Roberts, a Republican pollster with Public Opinion Strategies, compared Pennsylvania’s role in the 2024 election to Florida’s in the 2000 election.
“[I]t’s just the most important state to be focused on,” he said. “If Pennsylvania is decided and won’t be decided early, but if it starts to trend and one direction or the other, I think it’s going to be a huge sign for what happens in the Rust Belt.”
Meanwhile, McCormick saw his support jump as residents began to know him more. After trailing Casey by as many as 13 points in August, McCormick found himself almost tied at 49 percent to 48 percent this month.
Casey’s numbers have been relatively stagnant throughout the campaign. He’s never broken 50 percent in any F&M poll.
“McCormick is closing strong, while Casey’s campaign looks like it’s out of gas,” longtime Pennsylvania Republican strategist Christopher Nicholas of Eagle Consulting told DVJournal.
Yost suggested the U.S. Senate race tightened as straight-ticket support has risen. “Forty-nine percent of likely voters are Harris-Casey voters and 48 percent are Trump-McCormick voters at this time,” he wrote.
Roberts said Trump could push McCormick over the top on Election Day. Citing Trump’s higher poll numbers, Roberts said Trump encourages straight ticket voting. “We’ve very encouraged to see higher, higher early voting turnout.”
But it also shows the inroads McCormick has made. The RCP polling average gives Casey a 1.6 percent lead.
Nicholas said Casey is the fight for his political life, after previously coasting to victory in his three previous elections. “Here we are coming up on Halloween and the game is afoot.”
Both national parties are acting like the race is tied. Democratic Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s WinSenate PAC plans to spend an additional $7.1 million on pro Casey ads. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s GOP Senate Leadership Fund PAC plans another $6 million in pro McCormick ads.
The economy remained the most important issue for Keystone State residents at 30 percent. Second was government and politicians at 10 percent.
While it wasn’t considered an ‘important issue,’ 39 percent of those surveyed said illegal immigration had a negative impact on their community. That was tied with those who said it had no impact. Only 16 percent had a favorable view of illegal immigration.
