A new poll of Pennsylvania voters puts likely Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump ahead of Democratic President Joe Biden by four points. Perhaps more concerning for Keystone State Democrats, incumbent Democrat Sen. Bob Casey Jr.’s lead over Republican Dave McCormick is down to the mid-single digits.
The Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters March 10-13, with a margin of error of +/- three percentage points
It found Trump leading Biden 47 to 43 percent, while 10 percent of voters remained undecided in a head-to-head matchup.
In a five-way race that included Trump, Biden, independents Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Trump held a four-point lead over Biden. RFK Jr. received five percent support, with West and Stein each getting one percent.
The poll found Biden’s approval rate had fallen to 38 percent. Fifty-five percent of Pennsylvania voters disapproved of his performance as president, while around eight percent were neutral.
Voters were very concerned about the 81-year-old Biden’s age, with 58 percent saying it raised doubts in their minds about supporting him. Forty-two percent said they aren’t concerned.
Keystone State voters have concerns about Trump, too, with 55 percent saying his criminal indictments raised doubts about voting for him. Forty-five percent said they weren’t worried.
More Pennsylvanians said they were worried about the economy, with almost 37 percent listing it as their top concern. Crime was next at 12 percent, with immigration and “threats to democracy” tied at 11 percent.
Voters for the two candidates have very different motivations.
“There is a distinction in motivation between Biden and Trump voters,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Trump voters support the former president because they care about an issue (28 percent), like Trump (27 percent), or dislike Biden (21 percent), whereas a plurality of Biden voters (33 percent) support the president because they dislike Trump and 24 percent support Biden because they like him as a candidate.”
In the U.S. Senate race, incumbent Casey leads McCormick 45 to 41 with 14 percent undecided. Casey’s lead remains around four points when the undecided are asked to pick the candidate they lean toward.
That was a big change from last month’s Emerson poll when Casey led McCormick by 10 points. Other polls have given Casey a lead of four to 12 points.
“Casey at 45 percent, as an incumbent, is bad news for him,” GOP strategist Christopher Nicholas of Eagle Consulting Group told DVJournal. “Much rather be Team McCormick these days.”
Nicholas said the Casey-McCormick race “has barely started, but the basics are shaping up nicely for GOP.”
It’s McCormick’s second run for the U.S. Senate. In 2022, he narrowly lost the Republican primary to television Dr. Mehmet Oz by 950 votes. Oz then went on to lose to Democrat John Fetterman.
This time around, McCormick will avoid a GOP primary altogether. The Pennsylvania Department of State removed Conestoga Secretary-Treasurer Brandi Tomasetti from the Republican primary ballot this month. She’s vowed to mount a write-in campaign. Another candidate withdrew from the primary.
The poll found nine percent of those surveyed would vote for both Trump and Casey, while three percent planned to vote for Biden and McCormick.
