After former President Donald Trump picked Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) as his running mate, he quipped, “I’m going to leave him in Pennsylvania.”
Most political strategists say Vance could make a difference in western Pennsylvania, with its large, blue-collar population. But how will the military veteran and Yale Law grad impact the race in the affluent white-collar suburbs of southeastern Pennsylvania?
“I just don’t see him making any difference either in western Pennsylvania and certainly not in southeastern Pennsylvania,” public affairs executive Larry Ceisler told DVJournal.
But does it mean Trump is abandoning the Delaware Valley and the all-important Philadelphia suburban vote to whoever the Democrats put up? Not necessarily.
“Trump is not abandoning our region, but the Vance pick won’t help him as much as a [Nikki] Haley, [Sen. Tim] Scott or [Sen. Marco] Rubio pick would have here,” Bellevue PR Vice President Jeff Jubelirer said.
He suggested that Haley and Scott, both South Carolinians, could have helped in the Philly suburbs in different ways. Haley would have appealed to moderate Republicans and so-called “soft Democrats” who weren’t happy with the Biden-Harris administration. Scott, who is Black, could have helped improve minority vote numbers. Rubio, a Florida Republican, is the son of Cuban immigrants.
Vance, a White Catholic conservative populist, probably won’t appeal to moderates or suburban women, according to Jubelirer, a key demographic in the Delaware Valley. He’s a candidate who will reinforce Trump’s support with his base rather than appeal to the dwindling number of undecided voters.
Ceisler agreed. “Trump and Vance are going to get their votes [in the Delaware Valley],” he said. But that doesn’t mean that it will be widespread support, nor that Vance will be an agent of conversion. Ceisler observed it will probably be pockets of the region that turn out for the GOP.
But RNC National Committeeman Andy Reilly thinks Vance can use his background to connect with younger and swing voters in suburban areas. Vance, who turns 40 next month, is a bestselling author who came to prominence with the 2016 release of his memoir “Hillbilly Elegy.” It details Vance’s childhood in Ohio. Ron Howard directed the film adaptation for Netflix in 2020. Glenn Close was nominated for an Academy Award and Golden Globe for her performance as Vance’s “Mamaw.” Republicans shouted “Mamaw” multiple times during Vance’s speech at last week’s Republican National Convention in Milwaukee.
Republican strategist Charlie Gerow told DVJournal that Vance will help Trump in the Delaware Valley. He predicted the Trump-Vance ticket “flattens the ‘Blue Wall’ across the Rust Belt.” That’s a reference to states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin that helped Democrats Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, and Biden win the White House.
The most likely place for a GOP takeover could be Bucks County, where activists launched a concerted voter registration effort. Records show Republicans are close to, if not at, the same level as Democrats in voter numbers. Bucks is represented by Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, the only Republican who is part of the Delaware Valley congressional delegation.
Berwood Yost, director of the Franklin & Marshall College Poll, told DVJournal that Bucks County would be competitive in November. He was still hesitant to say that Vance seals the deal for Trump because Biden won it by four percent in 2020. Hillary Clinton won the county by less than a percentage point in 2016.
While the Democratic race changed completely after Biden dropped out Sunday, Trump’s selection of Vance appears focused on a possible second term and beyond.
“I think the choice is about governing,” said Ceisler. “I don’t think the choice is about electing.”
