What happens in California doesn’t stay in California — and that’s particularly true when it comes to your car. Or truck. Or even train.
The California Air Resources Board (CARB) has mandated that all new passenger vehicles sold in the Golden State must have zero tailpipe emissions by 2035. It did the same with freight trains operating there, and it is mandating the retirement of any diesel locomotives more than 23 years old.
Perhaps more problematic for America’s supply chain, California is also trying to force the trucking industry to adopt zero-emissions standards, too. It’s requiring commercial vehicles, even heavy-duty big rigs, meet zero emission standard by 2042, and bans the sale of bigger gas-powered trucks starting in 2036.
“They say, ‘As California goes, so goes the nation,’” said Thomas Pyle, president of the American Energy Alliance.
“Let’s hope not. Gov. Newsom’s attack on gas-powered cars and diesel-powered trucks and trains will be disastrous for California families. Californians already pay more for their electricity than the rest of the nation and their electricity grid is shaky at best. This fixation to electrify all modes of transportation will make things much worse. The rest of the nation should say, ‘No thanks.’”
Still, after California announced two years ago that it would go down this road, eight other states have followed its lead: Delaware, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, and Washington.
California’s reasoning is that outlawing gas-powered vehicles will help solve the climate crisis. The state will need a waiver from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency under the Clean Air Act to put its plan into place.
Industry groups and consumer advocates are lining up their opposition.
The Alliance for Automotive Innovation, which represents more major automakers except Tesla, has filed comments with the EPA opposing California’s actions, questioning the feasibility of the mandate.
“In contrast to criteria emission regulations—which can generally be met through emission system designs and are thus generally within the control of automakers in markets throughout the country— compliance with a ZEV sales mandate requires consumers to choose to purchase the corresponding percentage of new vehicles of a specific type of powertrain,” the group wrote.
“This, in turn, requires adequate electric charging and hydrogen fueling infrastructure, and will likely also require additional supportive policies such as purchase incentives and consumer education to encourage rapid increases in market uptake. Infrastructure and supportive policies are largely beyond the direct, sole control of automakers, and they vary remarkably between states.”
While California is trying to mandate combustion-engine vehicles out of existence to subsidize the EV market, other states are taking a different approach.
In Pennsylvania, state senators approved legislation that would require EV owners to pay an annual fee of $290 to help offset gas tax losses. Recouping that lost revenue is a rare point of bipartisan agreement between Republican and Democratic lawmakers, although the House and Senate disagree on approaches.
State Rep. Ed Neilson (D-Philadelphia), chairman of the House Transportation Committee who opposes the Senate’s legislation in its current form, has said he’s negotiating with his senatorial counterparts on a measure that could pass this year. Neilson wants the state to create a $125 EV fee that would start next year and gradually increase by $25 until 2029 when it would reach $225. The fee would be adjusted for inflation annually after 2029.
So far, the only Pennsylvania mandate regarding electric vehicles is that state agencies must replace 25 percent of their passenger car fleets with EVs by 2025.
Americans bought around 268,000 electric vehicles in the first quarter of 2024, according to Kelley Blue Book. To put that number in perspective, Americans bought 3.8 million cars during that same period. Toyota alone sold nearly 487,000 cars in the first quarter.
And that 268,000 is a 7.3 percent drop from the final quarter of 2023.
Coco Zhang, an analyst with ING, told CNN recently that the EV market isn’t slowing – it’s entering a new phase.
“The consumers who could be potentially interested in buying one in the first place, they are more likely to have already bought an EV themselves,” Zhang said. “So now, the challenge comes to unlocking the second wave of consumer adoption in those advanced economies.”
Under California’s mandate, 35 percent of new cars sold by 2026 must be fully electric, plug-in hybrid electric, or hydrogen fuel cell. That will increase to 68 percent by 2030 and 100 percent by 2035. The rule is expected to cost more than $210 billion.
The odds that California will hit that 35 percent target in just two years are fading. Sales of zero-emissions vehicles were flat in the first three months of this year, the auto industry reports.
According to InsideEVs, “The main issue, for now, is the slowing growth rate, which indicates that 2024 might be mostly flat despite new model launches, multiple EV price cuts, and very attractive lease deals.”
