On the first night of the Democratic National Convention last year, outgoing President Joe Biden bragged about the job growth on his watch, declaring, “We got from economic crisis to the strongest economy in the entire world. Record 16 million new jobs. Record small business growth.”
While the president’s claims were panned by factcheckers at the time, updated jobs data show that nearly 1 million jobs reportedly created during 2024 in fact didn’t exist. And those new numbers apply to Pennsylvania, too.
The Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office found that last year’s job gains in Pennsylvania were just half of the number originally reported in March.
Citing federal Bureau of Labor Statistics data recently released, the state agency said this preliminary data can be used to estimate the revisions that will eventually be applied to the March 2025 report.
The revised U.S. report showed the national labor market is grew by 911,000 fewer jobs than previously calculated. Pennsylvania’s job market was also weaker.
(Courtesy PA Independent Fiscal Office)
“On Sept. 9, 2025, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released 2025 Q1 state-level data for the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) database. The data include all employers that are part of the state unemployment insurance system and reflect jobs and wage data reported in monthly and quarterly administrative filings,” the IFO stated.
“These data will be used eventually to ‘benchmark’ more timely jobs data published monthly by the BLS in the Current Employment Survey (CES) data series (often referred to as the establishment survey), which is based on voluntary surveys sent to a sample of employers and estimates for jobs created by new firms. (Both series exclude the self-employed),” the IFO reported.
The QCEW data for March 2025 show year-over-year job creation of 33,000, a reduction of 37,000 (-53 percent) compared to the monthly CES data. The underlying details show large downward revisions for retail trade (-5,100), professional business services (-7,400), healthcare (-6,300), social assistance (-5,400), food service (-4,100) and non-profits (-7,100), the IFO said.
President Donald Trump is using these corrected job numbers to pressure Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to lower interest rates to help boost the economy.
“These revised job numbers show Pennsylvania added fewer positions than initially reported, particularly in healthcare, retail, and social services,” said Michael Plummer, a spokesman for the Pennsylvania Chamber of Business and Industry. “While the underlying trend remains positive, it highlights the urgent need for policies that drive business investment, support entrepreneurship, and create more jobs. The PA Chamber will continue pushing for pro-growth policies that help Pennsylvania compete and encourages our employers to expand and thrive.”
Explaining the differences, the IFO report said these might be due to policies or expected policies of the new Trump administration, “and the availability of federal funding.” The Bureau of Labor Statistics also attributes errors to “non-response” from employers, who are more likely to report gains than losses.
“The voluntary CES survey may not capture employment turning points (for example contractions) especially for industries undergoing a rapid revision to more typical employment levels,” the IFO said.