Despite Republicans now holding a nearly 12,000-voter registration advantage in Bucks County, U.S. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R) remains one of the top Democratic targets heading into the 2026 election.
PoliticsPA has ranked Fitzpatrick, who represents Pennsylvania’s 1st Congressional District—which includes all of Bucks County and a portion of Montgomery County—as the fourth most vulnerable member of Congress in the state. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates the district as D+1. It narrowly voted for Kamala Harris over Donald Trump in 2024, 49.67 to 49.35 percent.
Still, Fitzpatrick, named the most bipartisan Republican in the House, won reelection in 2024 by six points over Democrat Ashley Ehasz—his second victory over her.
In 2026, Fitzpatrick is expected to face Bucks County Commissioners Chair Bob Harvie Jr., a former Falls Township supervisor. But Harvie will first need to win a Democratic primary against at least one challenger, Rob Strickler.
Harvie will also need to significantly boost his fundraising to compete in the expensive Philadelphia media market. According to second-quarter 2025 filings, Harvie had just $195,318 in cash on hand—compared to Fitzpatrick’s $6.5 million war chest.
Fitzpatrick’s district is one of the few that were carried by Harris in 2024 but sent a Republican to Congress, and the rest of the Delaware Valley’s federal delegation is deep blue. Nevertheless, political professionals say it will be tough for Democrats to defeat him.
“It’ll be an uphill climb for Harvie,” said Republican consultant Christopher Nicholas of Eagle Consulting Group. “Fitzpatrick is well-positioned, very well-financed, and fluent on the issues of the day. There’s nothing special about Harvie that I can see right now.”
Berwood Yost, director of the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin and Marshall College, said the race is likely to be competitive due to the district’s swing nature.
“As is true in most midterm races, members of Congress from the president’s party tend to face a more difficult political environment,” Yost said. “Still, Fitzpatrick has shown himself capable of winning tough reelection battles. The fact that he was one of only two Republicans who didn’t vote for OBBA reinforces his image as an independent voice—an asset in this district.”
Yost added, “I believe Fitzpatrick starts as the frontrunner, but the political climate could give his challenger an opening. This race may mirror the tight contest of 2018.”
In that year, Fitzpatrick defeated Democratic challenger Scott Wallace, a wealthy progressive philanthropist and heir to the Hi-Bred Corn Company fortune. Wallace, whose grandfather Henry Wallace was a legendary progressive who served as vice president under Franklin D. Roosevelt, has donated to Harvie’s campaign.
Chris Pack, who runs a political action committee supporting Fitzpatrick, criticized Harvie’s candidacy.
“Brian Fitzpatrick is one of only two Republicans in the country seeking reelection in a district won by Kamala Harris, so the competitiveness isn’t a surprise,” said Pack. “But Democrats should be concerned about Bob Harvie’s record. He’s a 25-year career politician who faked town halls, got slammed in court for withholding public records, and has posted weak fundraising numbers. He’s clearly not ready for the big leagues.”
Historically, the party that controls the White House and Congress loses seats in midterm elections.
All of the members listed as “vulnerable” by PoliticsPA are Republicans: Reps. Scott Perry (R-Dauphin), Ryan Mackenzie (R-Lehigh), and Bob Bresnahan (R-Lackawanna). Just one Democrat, Rep. Chris Deluzio (D-Allegheny) was listed as “potentially vulnerable.”
Neither the Fitzpatrick nor Harvie campaigns responded to requests for comments.