Pennsylvania Democrats are facing a closer-than-expected fight for the seat of three-term incumbent, U.S. Sen. Bob Casey Jr., and a presidential race that’s on a knife’s edge.
So, when Vice President Kamala Harris told Philadelphia supporters, “The momentum is with us,” it raised eyebrows among political observers and analysts. The buzz on the political street is that Pennsylvania Democrats are worried the state could be slipping away.
The numbers appear to confirm those fears. After months of a steady lead in the polls, Casey is leading GOP challenger Dave McCormick by just a point and a half in the RealClearPolitics average. And former President Donald Trump leads Harris by just a fraction — about half a point — though Harris leads in just two of the 10 most recent Keystone State polls in the RCP average.
“I think there’s a concern. Will the turnout be better than it was in 2020? Biden won, but Philadelphia’s turnout was not as good as it needed to be,” Jeff Jubelirer from Bellevue Communications told DVJournal.
Other political professionals, like Democrat public affairs executive Larry Ceisler, say Democratic panic in the final days of an election cycle is nothing new.
“I see this happen every two years,” he told DVJournal.
Ceisler said the last time Democrats were optimistic was in 2016 with Hillary Clinton at the top of the ticket. Clinton, however, lost not only the election but also Pennsylvania to Trump. “That was a shock to the system,” said Ceisler.
Eight years later, there’s none of 2016’s overconfidence among Pennsylvania Democrats. An untested, last-minute nominee who’s still struggling to close the deal with the American people isn’t boosting Democratic confidence, either.
One major worry is minority turnout.
Support for Harris has lagged among Black men and Latinos, particularly in Pennsylvania.
An August survey of Black voters in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan found 55 percent of young Black men planned to vote for Harris, while 22 percent said they would vote for Trump, according to a poll by Black Men Vote PAC and HIT Strategies. That GOP number is far higher than 2020 or 2016.
The results troubled Black Men Vote PAC leaders enough that they spent $4 million on ads tailored towards men in battleground states.
Harris’ attempts to increase support include appearances on podcasts hosted by Black men, like Shannon Sharpe and Charlamagne tha God. (Charlamagne, notably, wanted Gov. Josh Shapiro on the Harris ticket instead of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz.) She also announced her ‘opportunity agenda for Black men’ in Erie.
She’s also tapped Barack and Michelle Obama, singer John Legend, and U.S. Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.) to help with outreach. Last weekend in Philadelphia, Barack Obama, Legend, and Clyburn canvassed for Harris.
Has the outreach worked? The answer is a resounding ‘maybe’.
The most recent GenForward poll found Harris increased her support among Black men to 58 percent but received only 37 percent support from Latinos.
One thing Ceisler, along with Delaware Valley Democrats who spoke with DVJournal on background, insisted the party has plenty of is enthusiasm.
Ceisler said he was impressed by last weekend’s canvassing operation in Philadelphia by the Harris campaign.
“We were hitting Democratic and independent doors. And people were really enthusiastic and thanking us for walking the streets,” he said.
That doesn’t mean the outreach will be successful.
Democrats privately – and sometimes publicly – complain about Harris’ operation in Pennsylvania and Philadelphia.
Former Congressman Bob Brady, chair of the Philadelphia Democratic Party, spent months asking the Harris camp for $1.2 million in funding. He told The Philadelphia Inquirer that cash would be used for additional canvasing on Election Day.
Just over a week ago, Philly Democrats griped that Mayor Cherelle L. Parker should be used more by the Harris camp.
And former U.S. Rep. Charlie Dent (R-Pa.) told Politico that while Harris might do better in the suburbs than Biden, she’s going to struggle in the central part of the state with blue-collar, working-class families where Biden did will four years ago.
“Kamala Harris needs just a huge plurality coming out of the Philadelphia area,” Dent said. “Black and Latino men in Philadelphia are essential for her,” he added.
Some local operatives also wonder if the Harris campaign picked the right person to run her Keystone State campaign.
“I have concerns about [Harris’s Pennsylvania campaign chair] Nikki Lu,” Ryan Boyer, the head of the Philadelphia Building & Construction Trades Council, told Politico.
Other Democrats said Lu hadn’t spent enough time in Pennsylvania and had disrespected locals.
Those problems could come back to haunt Democrats on Nov. 5.
“Biden won almost 90 percent [of the Black vote in 2020]. And let’s say Kamala is 80 percent,” theorized Jubelirer. “That could be the difference.”
