Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump remain in a tight race in Pennsylvania, with Trump appearing to be picking up steam. It matches a national polling trend showing numbers going the Republican’s way.
Meanwhile, U.S. Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D-Pa.) holds a lead over Republican Dave McCormick. That’s the result of four separate polls released last week: Emerson College, the Commonwealth Foundation, InsiderAdvantage and NYTimes/Siena College.
In the U.S. Senate race, Casey held a lead in every poll: 48 to 39 percent in the Commonwealth Foundation ; 48 to 43 percent in Siena College; and two points in the Emerson College and InsiderAdvantage polls. Casey’s lead has been narrowing for a month.
Trump leads Harris 49 percent to 47 percent in the InsiderAdvantage poll and 49 to 48 in the Emerson College poll. Harris is ahead of Trump by four points in the Commonwealth Foundation survey and by three (50 to 47 percent) in the Siena College poll.
It’s the first time her name appeared in the Commonwealth poll. It’s the fourth time Emerson and InsiderAdvantage surveyed the Trump-Harris race since President Joe Biden dropped out over the summer.
Emerson’s previous polls put the Harris-Trump race tied, while InsiderAdvantage gave Trump a slight lead.
The polls may show the electorate’s honeymoon with Harris is over.
National polling from over the weekend was trending the same way. A new ABC/Ipsos poll released this weekend found Harris’ six-point lead nationwide had fallen to two points: 50 to Trump’s 48 percent. A CBS News poll showed Harris edging Trump 51 to 48 percent. And an NBC News poll found the two candidates tied: 48 to 48 percent, down from a five-point lead a month ago.
InsiderAdvantage pollster Matt Towery said Trump’s numbers are holding steady or rising among independent, senior, and African American voters in the Keystone State.
“It appears that Harris’s support from African American males is actually deteriorating a bit,” he noted.
Democrats see the problem. Speaking to Harris volunteers in Pittsburgh last week, former President Barack Obama highlighted a “more pronounced” enthusiasm gap among Black men. He suggested the resistance was rooted in misogyny, saying, “you’re coming up with other alternatives and other reasons for that.”
Black men in Detroit have complained about Harris’ outreach. Three dozen told Politico the campaign has come off as condescending when they were asked questions about her policies.
However, longtime Pennsylvania Republican strategist Vince Galko of Mercury said the presidential race is all about Trump.
“You are either for him or against him. Harris is almost irrelevant. If the poll said generic Democratic candidate the results would likely be the same,” he told DVJournal.
Despite the Casey-McCormick contest becoming tighter, the Emerson and InsiderAdvantage polls show at least six percent of the electorate remain undecided. The Commonwealth Foundation poll had 13 percent undecided.
That could benefit McCormick.
The RealClearPolitics poll average shows Casey’s support hovering around 48 percent in polls dating back to mid-September. Strategists say that’s put Casey in the “danger zone” for an incumbent seeking reelection.
Perhaps more importantly, the undecided appear more interested in McCormick’s candidacy than Casey’s. Data from the Commonwealth Foundation poll showed 20 percent of undecided independents would vote for McCormick. Casey gathered only seven percent while the rest vowed to vote “None of the Above.” InsiderAdvantage and Emerson did not ask undecideds to reveal a preferred candidate.
Galko said voters are still getting to know the former hedge fund CEO because he’s never held public office.
At the same time, Galko suggested voters don’t know Casey either, even though he’s been in office for three decades.
“Casey and McCormick still have some room to tell their story and that of their opponent,” he said.
The Casey-McCormick race is one of the most watched races in the country. It could decide whether Republicans have a 50-50 split with Democrats in the Senate or win an outright majority. If the Senate ends up split, the vice president would cast the tie-breaking vote and give whoever wins the White House functional control of the chamber.
Casey and McCormick will meet in Philadelphia Tuesday in their second and final debate.
